2010-2011 L.A. Clippers

It seems like "this year" has been the year for the Clips every single year for the last 15 years. Years years years, in case I didn't have that word enough in the last sentence. With only one playoff appearance to show for it in the Elton Brand era, Blake Griffin is looking to define the franchise in a completely different fashion. It sucks that he lost an entire year of professional experience because of a fluke (cursed) injury, but he can still go a long way towards making this year the year for the Non-Lake Show.

2010-2011 Los Angeles Clippers

Point Guard: Baron Davis/Eric Bledsoe
Shooting Guard: Eric Gordon/Randy Foye
Small Forward: Rasual Butler/Ryan Gomes/Al Farouq-Aminu
Power Forward: Blake Griffin/Craig Smith/Brian Cook
Center: Chris Kaman/DeAndre Jordan/Jarron Collins

Let's start with the fundamentals for this money-pit franchise. Shooting: Davis, Gordon, Butler, Gomes can all extend to the 3-line. Rebounding: Kaman, Griffin, Smith, and Jordan are all workhorses on the glass no matter how many minutes they get. Ball-handling: Davis, Bledsoe, Gordon, and Foye can all get the ball up and down the court whenever needed. Now let's turn towards the potential (and probable) issues. Turnovers: all of those ball-handlers I just mentioned are all majorly TO-prone. Iso-Scorers: all the proven scorers on the squad (Davis, Gordon, and Kaman) are known for over-pounding the ball. Defense: nobody on the team plays any. This team can't be an selfish, isolation squad who turns the ball over every third possession and doesn't ever dig in for a stop. We already tried that with Team USA for about a decade a little while back. The Clippers definitely have all the talent you could want from top to bottom, but it's all on Vinny Del Negro to get them to actually work together. Hopefully Baron Davis understands this and pretends he's got Stephen Jackson and Jason Richardson flanking him. That way he might actually try to ... you know ... win a game or something.

Even though it's only his re-try at a rookie season, the success of the team really does hinge on Blake Griffin. He has All-NBA potential a few years into his career if he stays healthy and can build on the insane amount of game he showed at Oklahoma State. What's an even better sign for him is how meteorically he rose the level of his game from high school to his freshman season and then again for his sophomore year. The guy puts in the gym time, understands the game, and wants to improve. He probably would have been the runaway Rookie of the Year over Tyreke, but now he has to vouch for that title over the two UK guys. A little stiffer competition. But anyways, Griffin should seamlessly fit in with anybody on the floor. You don't come across many big men with his agility and speed who also know how to go through people to the basket. He should be able to be everything that Elton Brand was and significantly more for this franchise if he sticks around for awhile.

The guy who absolutely refused to wait on Blake Griffin was Eric Gordon. Gordon was a breakout star on the Olympic squad, with Russell Westbrook, of guys that the public had been highly underestimating. Yeah, he's undersized, but there's pretty much nothing else in Gordon's game that you can knock him for. He's got a sweet jumper improved to the point that he can shoot it from anywhere and he's a fearless attacker of the rim. He's got a strong frame at the two-guard, especially for his age, yet still has quickness to use in tandem with it. Gordon's been ranked as an elite wing man since high school, but it was never guaranteed that he would translate as well as he has to the pros. All you gotta know is that he can hoop. If him and Blake are still teammates four years from now, the Clippers will be a serious threat.

Why shouldn't the Clippers be able to sneak into the playoffs out West (besides the fact that they're the frickin' Clippers)? They're main obstacle to overcome is balancing their youth with their veterans. Eric Bledsoe and Al Farouq-Aminu can't come in thinking that they're the number 1 or number 2 (or number 3, 4, or 5) option. And along the same lines, Baron Davis and Chris Kaman need to know that they can't hold the ball for 19 of the 24 seconds and create everything on their own. If this team gels, they're insanely dangerous. I'm talking take-the-Lakers-to-seven-games-if-they-happen-to-meet-up-in-a-backyard-series dangerous. But if they don't gel ... then they're the Clippers. What did you expect? I personally think they make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round, but they're definitely on their way to assembling a power house. Mark it down.

Prediction
Regular Season: 44-38
Playoffs: Eliminated in first round

... and do the John Wall.

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Bledsoe Expectations

Eric Bledsoe - 6'1", 190 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
30.3 minutes, 11.3 points (46.2 FG%, 38.3% 3PT, 66.7 FT%), 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, .3 blocks, 1.4 steals, 3.0 TOs

It's pretty hard to believe that NBA scouts were so head-over-heels for E after a single year in college even though the supposed experts at ESPN didn't even have him ranked as one of the top 100 incoming freshmen of '09. Idiots. But what level of expectation can you actually have from the service that, in the same year, ranks Avery Bradley number one and John Wall number five?

Eric is a real tough case in gauging his potential contribution at the NBA level. The guy is definitely not ready to play pro ball yet, but I honestly can't blame him for going for it while being slotted just outside of the lottery, especially when he may have permanently been stuck playing off-ball next to would've-been future UK teammates Brandon Knight and Marquis Teague. And make no mistake, Eric will be playing point guard in the Association. He simply doesn't have the size to get away with playing the 2 like he did in NCAA competition. He sure-fire would have been picked even higher had he not teamed with Wall. Bledsoe's much more comfortable as a pure point looking to get his teammates involved as opposed to spotting up for jumpers and only occasionally penetrating, something that would have resolved a number of the questions attached to his draft report.

My best case career scenario for Eric is him being in the mold of '90s point guard Robert Pack. Though constantly plagued by injuries, Pack had a solid 7 or so seasons in his 13 year career where he was a threat on the court. Known for his blinding speed and insane in-game dunking ability, Pack was a known commodity and a game changer at times. His finest production came during the first half of the '96-'97 season with the Nets (before he was traded) where he nearly averaged a double-double of 16 points and 10 assists. This was just a year after averaging over 18 points in 31 starts with the Wizards before suffering season-ending nerve damage to his right leg. Bledsoe already has a better jumper with considerably better range than Pack ever managed, but both have eerily similar body molds, exceptional jumping ability, play-making potential, and a nagging turnover problem.

Robert Pack - 6'2", 190 lb.
1996-1997 with New Jersey Nets
34.9 minutes, 15.9 points (40.7% FG, 29.7% 3PT, 78.8% FT), 2.5 rebounds, 9.6 assists, .1 blocks, 1.7 steals, 4.4 TOs

Eric's worst case scenario is that he can't make the distinctive shift to being a pure point guard. This would leave him in a year-by-year case of limbo where teams are hesitant on making him a key rotation player as he's looked over, being the undefined combo guard with no size and an inconsistent jump shot. This would put him on a Marcus Banks-like career path where never finds his comfort zone with an organization and is only signed on as a band-aid for uncompetitive teams in transition without a competent starting point. The similarity in this case is the fact that Banks was once discussed in his early career as possibly being the fastest end-to-end player in the game, a title Bledsoe may be in competition for. But Banks was never able to convert his speed into feasible, consistent production. In his only starting opportunity, a midseason trade to relieve Marco Jaric of his lead duties, Banks made the most of it; but he's never been able to put the pieces of his game together to replicate that temporary glimpse of success and he hasn't had job security since.

Marcus Banks - 6'2", 205 lb.
2005-2006 with Minnesota Timberwolves
30.7 minutes, 12.0 points (47.9% FG, 36.4% 3PT, 77.8% FT), 2.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, .3 blocks, 1.2 steals, 2.4 TOs

The good news for Eric is the fact that, at this time, the only other players capable of logging minutes at the point on the Clippers are Baron Davis and Randy Foye; and Foye is even more naturally a shooting guard. That means he's definitely seeing the floor this season. Regardless of the results, any extended amount of legitimate floor time is invaluable for a developing lead guard. Practices don't simulate the intensity and experience that Eric will need to adapt to and understand at this level. He has to find out where to pick his spots with his jumper and how to optimize his playmaking capabilities without over-penetrating, which was an often occurrence while at UK. Expect turnovers galore in the early going. Shoot, TOs may be a defining issues that drags on his whole career. But I believe Eric is capable of capturing a starting guard slot in the league in time. He's a freak athlete with good form on his jump shot (that has already improved immeasurably since high school) and a highly willing passer with quality court vision. Hopefully he can perfect a change-of-pace aspect to his game and tighten up his handles in both the open court and half court sets. His speed has to be used with a purpose or else it's not really that much of an advantage at all. When the decision-making catches up with his natural ability, there's no reason he can't be a good NBA player. He's probably not an All-Star kind of guy, but definitely a notable contributor. Here's wishing him good luck with the cursed Clips. Hopefully he can sneak in Staples and watch a few Laker games. The perfect scenario for him is to wait in the wings as Davis' eventual successor while patenting a deadly two-man game with Blake Griffin. That could be a sick combo 5 years from now if the players and the organization play their cards right.

... and do the John Wall.

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Surprise Team

So I just thought I'd dedicate a few minutes to talking about a surprise NBA squad that I like going into next season. They are one of last year's punchline teams: the Wizards. And I think they'll possibly challenge the Magic/Celtics/Cavs.

Don't look at me crazy. I know they won a beyond paltry 19 games last year. And I know that's crazily nice enough to tie them for second worst in the league. And I also know that they only completed a single trade this offseason and don't even have an impact rookie coming in. But I still like them to surpassingly crush all expectations even though this is a season where I fully expect twelve of the fifteen Eastern Conference squads to compete for those eight playoff spots. Just for the record, I think the Knicks, Pacers, and Nets are those three unlucky teams who are consistent enough to maintain as the East's resident bottom feeders. But on to the Wiz.

Before even discussing their one monster trade, the Wizards simply improve exponentially from last season's nonexistence because of the health of both Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood. These men aren't going to be recovering while coming into training camp, either, because both came around fully right at the end of 2009's regular season. The team's starting point guard and center both had full and complete summers for rehabilitation and contact training. So even more than anyone who's been healthy, they should specifically come into the season in peak condition after not being on their feet most of last year.

And while Haywood is deftly important to this team's interior defense and gives them a (pretend) post scorer to distract some from the perimeter, Arenas is the pivotal cog that will reemerge and bring the Wiz into the upper echelon of East threats. Gilbert has been away from us for so long that all NBA fans have already started to forget or underestimate his floor impact. This man stands right behind Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony in the ranks of pure scorers in the league. He may seem to go games at a time where he shoots unconsciously and detrimentally to the team, but that reputation was gained more out of necessity and lack of team structure than out of pure ballhoggedness. Under Flip Saunders and with a full compliment of offensive weapons, Arenas will show amazing efficiency on the offensive end. Just trust me. And this same principle applies likewise to Antawn Jamison. Last year's team was purposeless on both sides of the floor. The club was marred with injuries and was infusing too many inexperienced pieces with a pitfall of uncertainty. With Arenas back at full capacity and some definitive upgrades at two key positions, this incarnation of the Wizards will show up on a nightly basis and perform.

And now the trade. For three less-than-proficiently talented forwards and the fifth pick in the draft, the Wizards acquired Mike Miller and Randy Foye from Minnesota. And though both players were rather nondescript last season, their skill sets will be highlighted on this team. Miller is instantly infused into the starting lineup and paired with Caron Butler to provide two big and strong wings which will dually cause problems for defenses. On the obvious front, Miller positively replaces a great deal of the 3-point attempts that Deshawn Stevenson, Mike James, Butler, and Jamison have been chucking the last few seasons. He'll knock them in at more opportune times and at a better clip. This also allows the free roaming of Butler and Jamison to become even more of a threat than it already was. You have to cover both of those forwards on the perimeter anyway, but now you have to even tighter and with more urgency since the ball could get dropped off or swung over to Miller at any point. And while he's not a premier defender by any means, his size gives a more versatile look on the defensive end of things when alternating between all the wing D schemes. Foye, on the other hand, provides a greatly talented scoring combo guard to be the first man off the bench for either Arenas or for the position shuffling of any combination of Miller/Butler/Jamison. In his short time at Minnesota, he became a more than adequate floor leader who can pick his spots to be a distributor or prime time scorer. In all honesty, he's a poor man's Gilbert Arenas. Funny how that happens. With Foye in the fold, the points will never drop off between the starting lineup and the bench. The Wizards with these two new players now have five guys who could realistically score 20+ points on any given night.

Once you add the peripheral players in, this team can exceedingly flourish when given the right direction. Nick Young is a big guard with as pure a stroke as you'll find in someone with so much untapped potential. Andray Blatche is a stylized big man of the future with every conceivable skill on the floor who simply needs to tame his shot selection to understand how versatile he can be in literally any system. Javaris Crittenton is a pure point guard, as well as a former Laker, who I fully believe can still develop into an absolute stud whether it's with the Wizards or a future team. Newly signed Fabricio Oberto is one of those veteran big men who, while not a big stat contributor, provides a calming influence and never provides anything negative while on the floor.

So all in all, I would be willing to throw some money on the Wizards being a big time crew next year with an epic bounce back performance. I like what both the Celtics and Magic did to improve their rosters, but I wanted to acknowledge the team that seemingly no one has on their radar right now. I witnessed the game live three years back when Gilbert Arenas laced up the Lakers for 60 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and a win while Butler and Jamison dropped an extra 27 and 25 respectively as well without missing a beat. It was a thing of beauty in the face of my own beloved Lake Show. And I'm not counting on that ever happening again, but I'm counting on everyone being able to score as much as they want and for Arenas to settle back in as a complete threat and floor leader for this overly talented team that will surprise you.

... but do take my word for it.

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