2010-2011 Orlando Magic

The Magic decided to pretty much stand pat even though last year's watered down version of the Celtics pushed them straight into a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals. I guess they're banking on Dwight Howard continuing to meteorically improve and the hope that Year 2 of Vince Carter is a little more ... good. They did add a little more firepower in basically swapping Anthony Johnson and Matt Barnes for Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson, but with an ever-improving Eastern Conference full of high-profile maneuvering, will it be enough?

2010-2011 Orlando Magic

Point Guard: Jameer Nelson/Chris Duhon/Jason Williams
Shooting Guard: Vince Carter/J.J. Redick
Small Forward: Mickael Pietrus/Quentin Richardson/Stanley Robinson
Power Forward: Rashard Lewis/Ryan Anderson/Brandon Bass/Malik Allen
Center: Dwight Howard/Marcin Gortat/Daniel Orton

Though he had his post-retirement moments, Chris Duhon is a big upgrade over Jason Williams as the back-up point. He regressed last season as a sometimes-starter for the Knicks, but his bounce-back is inevitable under a Stan Van Gundy-led system. And while Quentin Richardson has always been a natural 3-point threat and a solid defensive plug-in, I think they'll miss Matt Barnes' general craziness that he brought in certain situations. A Mickael Pietrus/Q-Rich combo isn't exactly a feared defensive tandem on the perimeter. That's one of the reasons that I see them having a slight drop-off this season. They'll still be a premier team bound to get top-4 home court seeding in the East, but all of their competitors made tangible improvements while Orlando went lateral.

Where they could make up that ground on their competitors is simple: Dwight. He shot a career high 61.2% from the floor last season, but he needs to get his scoring back over 20 points every game. As sick as it is to say, it would also be nice for him to up his 13.2 boards he pulled last season. He has the size and unheard-of physique to do it. As a matter of fact, he's already done it with 14.2 rebounds in '08. Basically, he just has to figure out a way to overcome Vince's presence and over-dribbling tendency to make himself a consistent force. I don't care how good the rest of his teammates chuck three-pointers, they're not gonna be anywhere close to a championship squad until Dwight puts at least 25 points on the scoreboard every night. 2004 aside, there needs to be a number one option on any great team, and Dwight needs to be that. You can't have Carter as 1A, Howard as 1B, Rashard Lewis as 1C, and Jameer Nelson as 2. It might go great for the majority of the year, but not when it really means anything.

There's not much of anything else to say about the Magic that isn't redundant of last year's squad. The guy with a surprising new contract, J.J. Redick, will be looking to prove he's valuable enough to possibly shake up the starting line-up at some point this year. He, Pietrus, Richardson, and Lewis will all be firmly planted at the 3-point line awaiting their 17 alloted chucks per game. Ryan Anderson will see if he can still naturally be such a valuable contributor that it's impossible to keep him on the bench. Marcin Gortat will probably force a trade at some point this season because there's honestly no room for him with how Van Gundy wants his team to play 48 minutes a night. Literally, his only usage would come if Dwight went down with a serious injury. And considering the fact that he's played in 489 of a possible 492 career games, that's not gonna happen. All-in-all, I think they wind up getting bitten again by the Celtics. I don't trust Howard or his back-ups enough to be able to overcome Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, and Jermaine O'Neal being thrown at him. You gotta hit the free throws from those 24 fouls being dedicated to taking you out of the game, and that's something Howard hasn't proven he can do yet. Shaq got away with it in his prime because he was already putting in over 27 points and had Kobe to clean up the rest. And that's my motto for the Orlando Magic in 2011: Vince Carter is not Kobe Bryant.

Prediction
Regular Season: 56-26
Playoffs: Eliminated in Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

... and do the John Wall.

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Cousins Expectations

Demarcus Cousins - 6'11", 270 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
23.5 minutes, 15.1 points (60.4% FG, 55.8 FT%), 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 steals, 2.1 TOs

The guy's a beast.

Demarcus Cousins probably should have gone before John Wall in the draft. He's more talented and more productive on the court. That shows you how much his demeanor and sullied media reputation scared off NBA GMs. Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and Wes Johnson are all half the talent that Demarcus is on the floor, but they all had squeaky clean images associated with them. Demarcus has to use this as motivation every single day for the rest of his career to prove that he can be an elite big man against the greatest competition he could ever face.

An acceptable start for his career would be for him to achieve Al Jefferson numbers. The only catch is that, though it took Al 3 years before he nudged himself up to double-double territory, Cousins needs to get there right now. They have a lot of the same skills, as both are amongst the rare bigs left who show off a polished back-to-the-basket post game with deft hooks from either hand. They're both long-armed trees in the paint who, though may not consistently make the right defensive decisions, are always a threat for straight-up or help-side blocks. Their biggest difference is in the fact that Al is distinctively mild mannered while Demarcus is always the aggressor. Jefferson's numbers should be a jumping pad for Cousins. In all honesty, Boogie's best case scenario should be Shaq-like numbers; he's actually that talented. But I'm trying to keep it more realistic and taper off my expectancy of Cuz at the level of a better version of Jefferson. We all cool with that?

Al Jefferson - 6'10", 265 lb.
2008-2009 with Minnesota Timberwolves
36.7 minutes, 23.1 points (49.7% FG, 73.8% FT), 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.8 blocks, .8 steals, 1.8 TOs

The worst case for Boogie is a heavy pitfall to the level of Benoit Benjamin. Picked third by the Clips based on his size and potential upside, Benjamin failed to ever break out as anything more than a serviceable role player bugged by nagging injuries. This is where Demarcus would fall only if his weight is a recurring issue and he never fully dedicates himself to putting in the gym time to perfect his craft. If he's not able to show off his perimeter capabilities, something that was never utilized in the college ranks, then his ceiling is as an inconsistent dump-down threat and sizable post defender. That's it. But I can't even envision that happening. Boogie is motivated by every single sleight he perceives from fans, the media, opposing players, and entire organizations. Trust me ... he's not gonna let himself fall to this level.

Benoit Benjamin - 7'0", 265 lb.
1988-1989 with Los Angeles Clippers
32.7 minutes, 16.4 points (54.1% FG, 74.4% FT), 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.8 blocks, .7 steals, 3.0 TOs

Beyond playing style comparisons, hopefully Demarcus will be able to quickly shed himself of the "Derrick Coleman" branding that he's been ordained with. While Coleman was an immensely productive big man for the majority of his 16 year career, the combination of weight issues, alcohol, and his consistently problematic behavior completely overruled his on-the-court play. Despite having the talent to be one of the greatest power forwards ever, Coleman was content with a single All-Star appearance and only two showings on the All-NBA Third Team. If that abbreviated trophy case is all Demarcus winds up with in the twilight of his playing days, he'll have been a major disappointment, too.

While pretty much everyone expects Cousins to start from day one with the Kings to begin perfecting his two-man game with Tyreke Evans, he does have some legitimate competition for heavy minutes. Samuel Dalembert is probably going to be slated as the starting center while Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Darnell Jackson, and even fellow rookie Hassan Whiteside will compete for clock from the bench. This logjam will be easily remedied from Cuz's perspective if he's physically capable of holding his own in the early going at the center position, as well. That way he can just naturally slide over one spot when Dalembert goes to the bench and preserve his floor time. This is all assuming, though, that Boogie will be able to drop his penchant for committing stupid fouls. It's very telling that Demarcus was only able to play 23 of 40 minutes of college ball on a nightly basis because of foul trouble, stunting what could have been Player of the Year caliber statistics. All things considered, I think Demarcus is a legitimate threat in the Rookie of the Year race and, by his third season, could already be in All-Star territory. If he plays his cards perfect, he has the potential to be an era-defining big man and wiggle his way into the heart of fans as the loveably tough monster, a la Shaq. Though many see it as a deterrent, I see his on-court ferociousness as a trait that could help seamlessly transition his game onto the pro level. You can bet anything that Favors won't be mixing it up, knocking against Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard from day one. Demarcus will.

... and do the John Wall.

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Orton Expectations

Daniel Orton - 6'10", 255 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
13.2 minutes, 3.4 points (52.7% FG, 52.4% FT), 3.3 rebounds, .4 assists, 1.4 blocks, .6 steals, 1.0 TO

Sucky stats, I know. But Daniel still managed to get selected in the first round based on potential. And I'll now put value to that potential.

Pluses for Daniel: shot blocking, unknown shooting ability, and a high level of athleticism when healthy. Forget every preconception you have about the guy coming off back-up duty as a college freshman and all the anger you have towards him for leaving for the pros early. Orton's career will not be defined by the completion of his rookie contract. He's simply not ready or currently healthy enough for that to be the case. I see him as having an eerily similar career path as Jermaine O'Neal. While under his rookie contract with the Portland Trailblazers, O'Neal struggled to stay on the floor for double-digit minutes for four entire seasons. A year later, he was able to escape Rasheed Wallace's daunting shadow (and influence) and earns 32 minutes a game with the Indiana Pacers. He then proceeds to spend the next 6 years in his playing prime as a premier All-Star post player and noted defensive swatter. Not bad for a guy who still averaged less than 4 points during the year that hypothetically could have been his senior season in college. When given the opportunity after an extended tutoring allotment, Jermaine flipped the switch. That's the best case scenario I see for Daniel Orton.

Jermaine O'Neal - 6'11", 255 lb.
2002-2003 with Indiana Pacers
37.2 minutes, 20.8 points (48.4% FG, 73.1% FT), 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, .9 steals, 2.3 TO

Much like O'Neal, Orton has a sick jump shot extending out to around 20 feet. He never once got to show it at UK, but I swear to you it's there. People close to the Wildcat ball club last year would tell you that Daniel was easily one of the squad's top 3 practice shooters. He has a feathery touch, just not the confidence yet to prove it in game action. Hence the disgustingly painful free throw percentage. He also has a few legitimate post moves that were only seen in literally about three play sequences in the entirety of his abbreviated college career. The majority of his adjustments, as dismissive as it is for me to say, rely exclusively in getting healthy, building his body, and getting used to NBA-sized contact. The talent and knowledge of the game are there; every player who played against Daniel daily in practice would tell you the same thing. He's a quality human being with the right combination of height and an understanding of the game, but he's been caught as the proverbial deer in the headlights over the course of the last calendar year. That's why I have such confidence in his potential ability to succeed at the highest level.

Worst case scenario is quite a bit more grim, though. While I hope Daniel finds a team where he can carve his niche and his extensive (and, as of yet, unseen) skill set can be utilized, nothing in the league is guaranteed. His knee may not heal as perfect as he (and the Orlando Magic) may hope. Or he may simply never regain the confidence to explode effectively off his knee, neutralizing his natural level of athleticism for the rest of his career. Maybe because of all the things going on in Daniel's life (the death of his mother, the lack of control shown by his father in the media, the outpouring hatred of a portion of UK fans, his plunge in NBA draft boards), he isn't able to put it all together at the right time and loses his chance at professional basketball prominence. In that case, his career ceiling falls to the disappointing level of a Keon Clark replication. Clark came out of UNLV in 1998 and was drafted by the Magic with the 13th pick. He was a highly talented big who couldn't ever seem to focus all of his attention on the court, resulting in him being relegated to a simple defender who couldn't even manage staying in the league for six seasons. His best outing came in 2002 when he put down the bong long enough to start 31 games for the Vince Carter-lead Raptors.

Keon Clark - 6'11", 221 lb.
2001-2002 with Toronto Raptors
27.0 minutes, 11.3 points (49.0% FG, 67.4% FT), 7.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 blocks, .7 steals, 1.7 TO

Besides health and conditioning issues, the biggest obstacle in Daniel's path to early floor time is his own teammates. The Magic probably have more front court depth than any NBA team should. Dwight Howard is the main cog with the rest of the power forward and back-up center minutes taken up by Rashard Lewis, Marcin Gortat, Ryan Anderson, and Brandon Bass. On top of that there's even fellow rookie Stanley Robinson as 12th man competition. Unless the roster is purged for Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul in some massive trade, I don't see how Daniel manages any clock in the early going. Though that's probably not a bad thing since he definitely isn't ready at this point. On a brighter note, Patrick Ewing will definitely be a pivotal piece in getting the right habits going for Daniel's future opportunities.

Here's hoping Daniel manages to steer his way closer to Jermaine territory as an eventual franchise-type player for a regularly competing team as opposed to a journeyman plagued by off court issues ousted out of the pro ranks before his 30th birthday. Make Oklahoma and Kentucky proud, Daniel. I don't know about everyone else, but I'm willing to give you a little extra leeway in your window to accomplish that.

... and do the John Wall.

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