Wall Expectations

John Wall - 6'4", 195 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
34.8 minutes, 16.6 points (46.1% FG, 32.5% 3PT, 75.4 FT%), 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, .5 blocks, 1.8 steals, 4 TOs

Our basketball savior. The guy who made it cool to be a Wildcat again. The guy who calls LeBron James and Drake whenever he's bored. The guy who President Obama name drops about. No, I'm not talking about John Calipari. I'm talking about John Wall. That guy.

Here's the scary thing about Wall at the next level: I believe he could possibly be playing at the level of a slightly altered version of Dwyane Wade within two years. He's got the same kind of size and left for the pros a year before Wade. He's got all the same effortless skills (blinding speed, sick hops, paint penetration at will, incredible court vision, reliable mid-range jumper, and cold-blooded scoring mentality in dire situations) that made Dwyane so special coming in. All Wall needs to do is build on those skills in his arsenal already. He's as quick a learner and willing adjustor as I've ever seen in college basketball. John would identify the situations where his team needed him to force the action and do exactly what needed to be done. It was shown most blatantly in the Stanford, UCONN, and (loss at) Tennessee games. Dwyane even started his rookie year attempting the point guard role before he was slid over to his natural 2 spot, but it's obvious that Wall will be pegged as a point for his whole career and put up better stats than Dwyane's, still exceptional, assist numbers. In the reckless way that both attack the basket and are adept at finding some amazing way to finish the play at the rim and draw fouls, I honestly do think John can come close to being as feared a scorer as Wade. Dwyane is probably the third best player in the entire league today and a guaranteed Hall of Famer when it's all said and done. That's the kind of potential that John has.

Dwyane Wade - 6'4", 220 lb.
2008-2009 with Miami Heat
38.6 minutes, 30.2 points (49.1% FG, 31.7% 3PT, 76.5% FT), 5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, 2.2 steals, 3.4 TOs

To exemplify the unworldly expectations of John in the pro ranks, I think the absolute worst he could do as a youngster is replicate Derrick Rose's numbers in a Rookie of the Year-type performance. It's way too easy of a comparison to make, so I'll focus on the differences. Wall's and Rose's 3-point marksmanship were nearly identical in college, both in makes and percentage, but I see Wall as having a little more range in his early career and already has a head start in becoming a more proficient shooter. Where Rose really took the NBA by storm was in his rookie playoff debut, notching 36 points (12-19 FGs and 12-12 FTs), 4 rebounds, and 11 assists all while pulling off the upset. That's winning time. And that's where John Wall has to re-prove himself at. Sure, he hit a game winning 15-foot jumper in his NCAA debut and knocked down every single clutch free throw he ever needed, but he has to prove it again in the national spotlight. His tournament numbers weren't as outstanding or prevailing as Rose's, so it's up to Wall to prove that was a fluke and that he can lead an underwhelming team into playoff contention right away ... like Rose. What better measuring tool is there to compare two insanely talented and freakishly athletic freshmen point guards who played under the same head coach within a three year span? I guess lightning does strike twice, albeit once in Memphis and once in Lexington.

Derrick Rose - 6'3", 190 lb.
2009-2010 with Chicago Bulls
36.8 minutes, 20.8 points (48.9% FG, 26.7% 3PT, 76.6% FT), 3.7 rebounds, 6 assists, .3 blocks, .7 steals, 2.8 TOs

Here's the bottom line: John Wall is guaranteed to be a stud. He was simply already an NBA caliber player his senior year in high school. His style of play is tailor-made for the more wide-open pro game with limited zoning. He's got as quick a first step as you can find and he always has purpose with the ball. I know he has a turnover problem; everyone knows that. But so does Steve Nash, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Kobe Bryant. So the TOs aren't an indication of any sizable flaw in his game; he just has to figure out how to utilize his teammates the right way over time and those lost possessions will naturally shrink. While obviously not against the greatest competition, Wall averaged 23.5 points, 7.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 steals in four summer league games. That's a sick pro platform to jump off of.

Now all that remains to be seen is how Flip Saunders tries to mesh Gilbert Arenas and Wall in the offense together. The entire guard rotation comprises of the two aforementioned players plus Kirk Hinrich and Nick Young; so John's going to get heavy clock from day one, most likely starting every game unless something terrible happens. I swore off believing in Arenas' ability to be a quality teammate in the future, but I'm forced to root for him being a positive influence in the career of UK's first number one overall NBA Draft pick ever. Everybody's eyes are gonna be on Wall in the nation's capital. He's gonna have to balance putting in the time practicing his 3-pointers with all of Barack Obama's personal texts, but he'll make it work. He's made for this.

... and do the John Wall.

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Patterson Expectations

Patrick Patterson - 6'9", 235 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
33 minutes, 14.3 points (57.5% FG, 34.8% 3PT, 69.2% FT), 7.4 rebounds, .9 assists, 1.3 blocks, .7 steals, 1.1 TOs

The University of Kentucky's modern day Paul Bunyan figure is now an NBA rookie. He was one of the very, very, very few bright spots shining through the catastrophic Billy G blip of an era. He was the guy who embodied every aspect of any local hero you could ever wish for. He was UK. Now he's a Rocket.

The big issue in looking at Pat's production from last season is the Demarcus Cousins effect. In his 2009 sophomore season, pre-Boogie, Pat put up 18/9/2 with 2 blocks and shot over 60% from the field. That drop in production would be a death toll for any other NBA prospect, but with his added skill of 3-point shooting and the scouts' understanding of his deference all last season to UK's incoming talent, Pat universally rose on everyone's draft boards. It was a crazy gutsy move for him, knowing that the team was in transition and he would have to sacrifice individual production on a monumental level. But he did it anyway, lived with the sacrifice, and was better off (playing-wise and monetarily) because of it. Win-win.

All that being said and as hard as it is for me to admit, I don't think P-Patt has a very good chance at an All-Star level career. Because of that, I see his ceiling as a Horace Grant-type 3rd option player. Grant did sneak in an All-Star appearance in '94 while MJ was busy watching a few baseball games, but he was more noted for his defensive work and tenure, logging over 30 minutes per game in 13 of his 17 NBA seasons. Horace has a little bit of height over Patrick and better natural defensive instincts so far, but Pat already has more consistency in his jumper and far better range. One thing that has to be a major focus for Patterson is developing his passing ability, which was completely nonexistent at UK, if he has any hopes of being as productive as Grant. He won't be seeing many dump-down, clear out situations in the pros due to his lack of size, but being a high energy guy on the boards will go a long way in him defining his game and surprising a lot of people with his insane level of strength and fitness.

Horace Grant - 6'10", 215 lb.
1993-1994 with Chicago Bulls
36.7 minutes, 15.1 points (52.4% FG, 59.6% FT), 11 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.6 TOs

In the same way I don't think P-Patt has as high of a ceiling as the other 2010 UK rookies at the pro level, he also has a shorter drop as to what his worst case scenario is. The most frequent modern day comparison used for Patrick is current undersized Jazz forward Paul Millsap; and it's highly warranted. Millsap is a workhorse who runs the fast break well, has an adequate mid-range shot, and destroys his oversized competition on the board, all these being things that Patrick's already got on lock and ready to contribute at the pro level. Yet he's probably going to be a career back-up unless he gets on another squad purged of all front court size. He spent all of his first four seasons as Carlos Boozer's bench relief and is set to play the same role in Al Jefferson's shadow for the foreseeable future. The highlight of Millsap's early career was taking advantage of Booze's injury-prone nature in the '09 season where he had 38 starting opportunities. He put up a string of 19 consecutive double-doubles in Boozer's absence, showing off his capability as an NBA starter. But Millsap was relegated once again to mop-up duty once he returned.

Paul Millsap - 6'8", 245 lb.
2008-2009 with Utah Jazz
30.1 minutes, 13.5 points (53.4% FG, 69.9% FT), 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 1.7 TOs

I'm personally rooting for the Rockets to win the Carmelo sweepstakes and trade away half their big men for him. Unless Patrick's able to pull the ability to handle the ball out of a magic hat in the next month, he's stuck as an undersized power forward or super-undersized center in the most dire of instances. With that niched position in mind, it sucks that the Rockets currently employ Yao Ming, Brad Miller, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and Jordan Hill all fighting for those 96 big men minutes between them. The only guy Patrick's probably ahead of on the depth chart is Hill. Plus you gotta figure that Yao and Scola get at least 65 of those available minutes between them. Not good for a rookie. So unless something big changes, we may not see a lot of P-Patt in the early going. But he's too solid to not break his way into someone's rotation and be an impact player at some point. Big Blue nation will be right behind him for the entire journey. He's our guy.

... and do the John Wall.

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Cousins Expectations

Demarcus Cousins - 6'11", 270 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
23.5 minutes, 15.1 points (60.4% FG, 55.8 FT%), 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 steals, 2.1 TOs

The guy's a beast.

Demarcus Cousins probably should have gone before John Wall in the draft. He's more talented and more productive on the court. That shows you how much his demeanor and sullied media reputation scared off NBA GMs. Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and Wes Johnson are all half the talent that Demarcus is on the floor, but they all had squeaky clean images associated with them. Demarcus has to use this as motivation every single day for the rest of his career to prove that he can be an elite big man against the greatest competition he could ever face.

An acceptable start for his career would be for him to achieve Al Jefferson numbers. The only catch is that, though it took Al 3 years before he nudged himself up to double-double territory, Cousins needs to get there right now. They have a lot of the same skills, as both are amongst the rare bigs left who show off a polished back-to-the-basket post game with deft hooks from either hand. They're both long-armed trees in the paint who, though may not consistently make the right defensive decisions, are always a threat for straight-up or help-side blocks. Their biggest difference is in the fact that Al is distinctively mild mannered while Demarcus is always the aggressor. Jefferson's numbers should be a jumping pad for Cousins. In all honesty, Boogie's best case scenario should be Shaq-like numbers; he's actually that talented. But I'm trying to keep it more realistic and taper off my expectancy of Cuz at the level of a better version of Jefferson. We all cool with that?

Al Jefferson - 6'10", 265 lb.
2008-2009 with Minnesota Timberwolves
36.7 minutes, 23.1 points (49.7% FG, 73.8% FT), 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.8 blocks, .8 steals, 1.8 TOs

The worst case for Boogie is a heavy pitfall to the level of Benoit Benjamin. Picked third by the Clips based on his size and potential upside, Benjamin failed to ever break out as anything more than a serviceable role player bugged by nagging injuries. This is where Demarcus would fall only if his weight is a recurring issue and he never fully dedicates himself to putting in the gym time to perfect his craft. If he's not able to show off his perimeter capabilities, something that was never utilized in the college ranks, then his ceiling is as an inconsistent dump-down threat and sizable post defender. That's it. But I can't even envision that happening. Boogie is motivated by every single sleight he perceives from fans, the media, opposing players, and entire organizations. Trust me ... he's not gonna let himself fall to this level.

Benoit Benjamin - 7'0", 265 lb.
1988-1989 with Los Angeles Clippers
32.7 minutes, 16.4 points (54.1% FG, 74.4% FT), 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.8 blocks, .7 steals, 3.0 TOs

Beyond playing style comparisons, hopefully Demarcus will be able to quickly shed himself of the "Derrick Coleman" branding that he's been ordained with. While Coleman was an immensely productive big man for the majority of his 16 year career, the combination of weight issues, alcohol, and his consistently problematic behavior completely overruled his on-the-court play. Despite having the talent to be one of the greatest power forwards ever, Coleman was content with a single All-Star appearance and only two showings on the All-NBA Third Team. If that abbreviated trophy case is all Demarcus winds up with in the twilight of his playing days, he'll have been a major disappointment, too.

While pretty much everyone expects Cousins to start from day one with the Kings to begin perfecting his two-man game with Tyreke Evans, he does have some legitimate competition for heavy minutes. Samuel Dalembert is probably going to be slated as the starting center while Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Darnell Jackson, and even fellow rookie Hassan Whiteside will compete for clock from the bench. This logjam will be easily remedied from Cuz's perspective if he's physically capable of holding his own in the early going at the center position, as well. That way he can just naturally slide over one spot when Dalembert goes to the bench and preserve his floor time. This is all assuming, though, that Boogie will be able to drop his penchant for committing stupid fouls. It's very telling that Demarcus was only able to play 23 of 40 minutes of college ball on a nightly basis because of foul trouble, stunting what could have been Player of the Year caliber statistics. All things considered, I think Demarcus is a legitimate threat in the Rookie of the Year race and, by his third season, could already be in All-Star territory. If he plays his cards perfect, he has the potential to be an era-defining big man and wiggle his way into the heart of fans as the loveably tough monster, a la Shaq. Though many see it as a deterrent, I see his on-court ferociousness as a trait that could help seamlessly transition his game onto the pro level. You can bet anything that Favors won't be mixing it up, knocking against Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard from day one. Demarcus will.

... and do the John Wall.

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Bledsoe Expectations

Eric Bledsoe - 6'1", 190 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
30.3 minutes, 11.3 points (46.2 FG%, 38.3% 3PT, 66.7 FT%), 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, .3 blocks, 1.4 steals, 3.0 TOs

It's pretty hard to believe that NBA scouts were so head-over-heels for E after a single year in college even though the supposed experts at ESPN didn't even have him ranked as one of the top 100 incoming freshmen of '09. Idiots. But what level of expectation can you actually have from the service that, in the same year, ranks Avery Bradley number one and John Wall number five?

Eric is a real tough case in gauging his potential contribution at the NBA level. The guy is definitely not ready to play pro ball yet, but I honestly can't blame him for going for it while being slotted just outside of the lottery, especially when he may have permanently been stuck playing off-ball next to would've-been future UK teammates Brandon Knight and Marquis Teague. And make no mistake, Eric will be playing point guard in the Association. He simply doesn't have the size to get away with playing the 2 like he did in NCAA competition. He sure-fire would have been picked even higher had he not teamed with Wall. Bledsoe's much more comfortable as a pure point looking to get his teammates involved as opposed to spotting up for jumpers and only occasionally penetrating, something that would have resolved a number of the questions attached to his draft report.

My best case career scenario for Eric is him being in the mold of '90s point guard Robert Pack. Though constantly plagued by injuries, Pack had a solid 7 or so seasons in his 13 year career where he was a threat on the court. Known for his blinding speed and insane in-game dunking ability, Pack was a known commodity and a game changer at times. His finest production came during the first half of the '96-'97 season with the Nets (before he was traded) where he nearly averaged a double-double of 16 points and 10 assists. This was just a year after averaging over 18 points in 31 starts with the Wizards before suffering season-ending nerve damage to his right leg. Bledsoe already has a better jumper with considerably better range than Pack ever managed, but both have eerily similar body molds, exceptional jumping ability, play-making potential, and a nagging turnover problem.

Robert Pack - 6'2", 190 lb.
1996-1997 with New Jersey Nets
34.9 minutes, 15.9 points (40.7% FG, 29.7% 3PT, 78.8% FT), 2.5 rebounds, 9.6 assists, .1 blocks, 1.7 steals, 4.4 TOs

Eric's worst case scenario is that he can't make the distinctive shift to being a pure point guard. This would leave him in a year-by-year case of limbo where teams are hesitant on making him a key rotation player as he's looked over, being the undefined combo guard with no size and an inconsistent jump shot. This would put him on a Marcus Banks-like career path where never finds his comfort zone with an organization and is only signed on as a band-aid for uncompetitive teams in transition without a competent starting point. The similarity in this case is the fact that Banks was once discussed in his early career as possibly being the fastest end-to-end player in the game, a title Bledsoe may be in competition for. But Banks was never able to convert his speed into feasible, consistent production. In his only starting opportunity, a midseason trade to relieve Marco Jaric of his lead duties, Banks made the most of it; but he's never been able to put the pieces of his game together to replicate that temporary glimpse of success and he hasn't had job security since.

Marcus Banks - 6'2", 205 lb.
2005-2006 with Minnesota Timberwolves
30.7 minutes, 12.0 points (47.9% FG, 36.4% 3PT, 77.8% FT), 2.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, .3 blocks, 1.2 steals, 2.4 TOs

The good news for Eric is the fact that, at this time, the only other players capable of logging minutes at the point on the Clippers are Baron Davis and Randy Foye; and Foye is even more naturally a shooting guard. That means he's definitely seeing the floor this season. Regardless of the results, any extended amount of legitimate floor time is invaluable for a developing lead guard. Practices don't simulate the intensity and experience that Eric will need to adapt to and understand at this level. He has to find out where to pick his spots with his jumper and how to optimize his playmaking capabilities without over-penetrating, which was an often occurrence while at UK. Expect turnovers galore in the early going. Shoot, TOs may be a defining issues that drags on his whole career. But I believe Eric is capable of capturing a starting guard slot in the league in time. He's a freak athlete with good form on his jump shot (that has already improved immeasurably since high school) and a highly willing passer with quality court vision. Hopefully he can perfect a change-of-pace aspect to his game and tighten up his handles in both the open court and half court sets. His speed has to be used with a purpose or else it's not really that much of an advantage at all. When the decision-making catches up with his natural ability, there's no reason he can't be a good NBA player. He's probably not an All-Star kind of guy, but definitely a notable contributor. Here's wishing him good luck with the cursed Clips. Hopefully he can sneak in Staples and watch a few Laker games. The perfect scenario for him is to wait in the wings as Davis' eventual successor while patenting a deadly two-man game with Blake Griffin. That could be a sick combo 5 years from now if the players and the organization play their cards right.

... and do the John Wall.

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Orton Expectations

Daniel Orton - 6'10", 255 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
13.2 minutes, 3.4 points (52.7% FG, 52.4% FT), 3.3 rebounds, .4 assists, 1.4 blocks, .6 steals, 1.0 TO

Sucky stats, I know. But Daniel still managed to get selected in the first round based on potential. And I'll now put value to that potential.

Pluses for Daniel: shot blocking, unknown shooting ability, and a high level of athleticism when healthy. Forget every preconception you have about the guy coming off back-up duty as a college freshman and all the anger you have towards him for leaving for the pros early. Orton's career will not be defined by the completion of his rookie contract. He's simply not ready or currently healthy enough for that to be the case. I see him as having an eerily similar career path as Jermaine O'Neal. While under his rookie contract with the Portland Trailblazers, O'Neal struggled to stay on the floor for double-digit minutes for four entire seasons. A year later, he was able to escape Rasheed Wallace's daunting shadow (and influence) and earns 32 minutes a game with the Indiana Pacers. He then proceeds to spend the next 6 years in his playing prime as a premier All-Star post player and noted defensive swatter. Not bad for a guy who still averaged less than 4 points during the year that hypothetically could have been his senior season in college. When given the opportunity after an extended tutoring allotment, Jermaine flipped the switch. That's the best case scenario I see for Daniel Orton.

Jermaine O'Neal - 6'11", 255 lb.
2002-2003 with Indiana Pacers
37.2 minutes, 20.8 points (48.4% FG, 73.1% FT), 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, .9 steals, 2.3 TO

Much like O'Neal, Orton has a sick jump shot extending out to around 20 feet. He never once got to show it at UK, but I swear to you it's there. People close to the Wildcat ball club last year would tell you that Daniel was easily one of the squad's top 3 practice shooters. He has a feathery touch, just not the confidence yet to prove it in game action. Hence the disgustingly painful free throw percentage. He also has a few legitimate post moves that were only seen in literally about three play sequences in the entirety of his abbreviated college career. The majority of his adjustments, as dismissive as it is for me to say, rely exclusively in getting healthy, building his body, and getting used to NBA-sized contact. The talent and knowledge of the game are there; every player who played against Daniel daily in practice would tell you the same thing. He's a quality human being with the right combination of height and an understanding of the game, but he's been caught as the proverbial deer in the headlights over the course of the last calendar year. That's why I have such confidence in his potential ability to succeed at the highest level.

Worst case scenario is quite a bit more grim, though. While I hope Daniel finds a team where he can carve his niche and his extensive (and, as of yet, unseen) skill set can be utilized, nothing in the league is guaranteed. His knee may not heal as perfect as he (and the Orlando Magic) may hope. Or he may simply never regain the confidence to explode effectively off his knee, neutralizing his natural level of athleticism for the rest of his career. Maybe because of all the things going on in Daniel's life (the death of his mother, the lack of control shown by his father in the media, the outpouring hatred of a portion of UK fans, his plunge in NBA draft boards), he isn't able to put it all together at the right time and loses his chance at professional basketball prominence. In that case, his career ceiling falls to the disappointing level of a Keon Clark replication. Clark came out of UNLV in 1998 and was drafted by the Magic with the 13th pick. He was a highly talented big who couldn't ever seem to focus all of his attention on the court, resulting in him being relegated to a simple defender who couldn't even manage staying in the league for six seasons. His best outing came in 2002 when he put down the bong long enough to start 31 games for the Vince Carter-lead Raptors.

Keon Clark - 6'11", 221 lb.
2001-2002 with Toronto Raptors
27.0 minutes, 11.3 points (49.0% FG, 67.4% FT), 7.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 blocks, .7 steals, 1.7 TO

Besides health and conditioning issues, the biggest obstacle in Daniel's path to early floor time is his own teammates. The Magic probably have more front court depth than any NBA team should. Dwight Howard is the main cog with the rest of the power forward and back-up center minutes taken up by Rashard Lewis, Marcin Gortat, Ryan Anderson, and Brandon Bass. On top of that there's even fellow rookie Stanley Robinson as 12th man competition. Unless the roster is purged for Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul in some massive trade, I don't see how Daniel manages any clock in the early going. Though that's probably not a bad thing since he definitely isn't ready at this point. On a brighter note, Patrick Ewing will definitely be a pivotal piece in getting the right habits going for Daniel's future opportunities.

Here's hoping Daniel manages to steer his way closer to Jermaine territory as an eventual franchise-type player for a regularly competing team as opposed to a journeyman plagued by off court issues ousted out of the pro ranks before his 30th birthday. Make Oklahoma and Kentucky proud, Daniel. I don't know about everyone else, but I'm willing to give you a little extra leeway in your window to accomplish that.

... and do the John Wall.

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