2009 Recruits in Retrospect

Probably more-so than any other fan base, the UK faithful obsess over recruiting rankings like there's no other joy in life. Coach Cal'll do that to ya. But it started way back when Billy G pulled in Patrick Patterson (Rivals' #17 ranked prospect in '07). Since then it's been a tradition to scour every recruiting service on the net and scrutinize its every change in ranking and selectively brag about our classes of players. I just wanted to take a look into the validity of these rankings, using 2009 as the prime example. Do the heralded top rankings hold up once these freak high school athletes step foot on campus?

Let's start with Derrick Favors. Raw numbers: 12.4 points on 61% shooting, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks in 27.5 minutes. His best performance was a 21/11 double-double in a close loss against the world champion Duke Blue Devils near the end of the season. He was distinctively option 1B to Gani Lawal's 1A on Georgia Tech. They combined to form a sizable front court tandem, thus somewhat explaining their extremely similar, neutralized statistical output. He was picked third in the NBA Draft by the 76ers.

Next is John Wall. All he did was become the Rupp National Player of the Year, a 1st Team All-American, the SEC Player of the Year, and the Freshman of the Year (from 5 different associations. Oh ... and become the top pick in the NBA Draft by the Wizards. That's all. Raw numbers: 16.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.8 steals in 34.8 minutes. He dominated the UK offensive attack for nearly the entire game, night in and night out. While it's arguable that Demarcus Cousins may have been the number 1 offensive option for large portions of the game, Wall created the majority of the opportunities for Cousins either directly (assists) or indirectly (adjusted defensive schemes). His top outing was a 22/10/8 near triple-double against Mississippi State in a close SEC win. Let's not fool around ... Wall was the absolute best freshman coming into college basketball. Hands down.

Third is Demarcus Cousins. Raw numbers: 15.1 points on 56% shooting, 9.9 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in 23.5 minutes. Cousins' early award catalog is headlined with him being a Consensus Second-Team All-American, SEC Freshman of the Year, and the fifth pick in the NBA draft by the Kings. His breakout game was a 27/18 monster double-double in the early going against Sam Houston State in only 27 minutes, but his most ferocious and impacting contribution was the 18/18 he rung up on Samardo Samuels and blood rival Louisville in only 26 minutes.

As default judgement electives, I'll use the following comparisons. The Sporting News All-Freshman Team was appropriately headlined by Wall, Cousins, and Favors in addition to Derrick Williams of Arizona and Xavier Henry of Kansas. The freshman drafted into the league went in the order of Wall, Favors, Cousins, Henry, Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradley, Daniel Orton, Hassan Whiteside, Lance Stephenson, and Tiny Gallon.

My post-freshman 2009 prospect rankings:
1. John Wall (17/4/7) for Kentucky
2. Demarcus Cousins (15/10/1) for Kentucky
3. Derrick Favors (12/8/1) for Georgia Tech
4. Xavier Henry (13/4/2) for Kansas
5. Eric Bledsoe (11/3/3) for Kentucky
6. Avery Bradley (12/3/2) for Texas
7. Kenny Boynton (14/3/3) for Florida
8. Hassan Whiteside (13/9/0) for Marshall
9. Lance Stephenson (12/5/3) for Cincinnati
10. Tiny Gallon (10/8/1) for Oklahoma State

Of course, hindsight is always (enter cliche here), but I'm going to be judgmental anyway. The winner in the rankings system? Rivals. They had Wall, Cousins, Favors as their 1/2/3 while also ranking Bledsoe the highest of any site at #23. The loser? ESPN. They went with Bradley, Favors, and Henry as their top three, relegating Demarcus and John to mop-up duty at 4 and 5. Plus ESPN left Bledsoe off of their rankings altogether. The big strikeout, unless he breaks out during the remainder of his college career, is John Henson, who was relegated to 5 points per game in his debut NCAA season. And while Henson was getting all the top-10 love, Hassan Whiteside is now signing his NBA contract papers even though he was a forgotten commodity ranked #87 by Rivals and unranked by both Scout and ESPN. That's probably why he was stuck at Marshall while every other one-and-done was getting TV time playing for a premier program. But, honestly, for all we know ... Renardo Sidney may be the best out of everybody. Ha.

This is only a one-year-later judgement, though. This last season of basketball isn't the end-all, be-all of their careers. Going back to the earlier comparison, John Henson may very well be a strong player in the pros seven years down the road while Hassan Whiteside is forced into D-League obscurity. Only time will tell the whole story. But the big lesson I'm trying to get at is this: ESPN's high school rankings blow. I don't care if he has a championship ring, Mason Plumlee and his dumbly clumsy 3.7 points and 3.1 rebounds were not the #10 prospect last year. That's all. Oh, and don't freak out that Michael Gilchrist may have fallen allll the way down to number five in the Scout rankings. If our very own world-dominator John Wall can sport an undeserved #5 ranking on his chest, I'm sure Gilchrist can manage and still be a killer, too.

... and do the John Wall.

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Cousins Expectations

Demarcus Cousins - 6'11", 270 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
23.5 minutes, 15.1 points (60.4% FG, 55.8 FT%), 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 steals, 2.1 TOs

The guy's a beast.

Demarcus Cousins probably should have gone before John Wall in the draft. He's more talented and more productive on the court. That shows you how much his demeanor and sullied media reputation scared off NBA GMs. Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and Wes Johnson are all half the talent that Demarcus is on the floor, but they all had squeaky clean images associated with them. Demarcus has to use this as motivation every single day for the rest of his career to prove that he can be an elite big man against the greatest competition he could ever face.

An acceptable start for his career would be for him to achieve Al Jefferson numbers. The only catch is that, though it took Al 3 years before he nudged himself up to double-double territory, Cousins needs to get there right now. They have a lot of the same skills, as both are amongst the rare bigs left who show off a polished back-to-the-basket post game with deft hooks from either hand. They're both long-armed trees in the paint who, though may not consistently make the right defensive decisions, are always a threat for straight-up or help-side blocks. Their biggest difference is in the fact that Al is distinctively mild mannered while Demarcus is always the aggressor. Jefferson's numbers should be a jumping pad for Cousins. In all honesty, Boogie's best case scenario should be Shaq-like numbers; he's actually that talented. But I'm trying to keep it more realistic and taper off my expectancy of Cuz at the level of a better version of Jefferson. We all cool with that?

Al Jefferson - 6'10", 265 lb.
2008-2009 with Minnesota Timberwolves
36.7 minutes, 23.1 points (49.7% FG, 73.8% FT), 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.8 blocks, .8 steals, 1.8 TOs

The worst case for Boogie is a heavy pitfall to the level of Benoit Benjamin. Picked third by the Clips based on his size and potential upside, Benjamin failed to ever break out as anything more than a serviceable role player bugged by nagging injuries. This is where Demarcus would fall only if his weight is a recurring issue and he never fully dedicates himself to putting in the gym time to perfect his craft. If he's not able to show off his perimeter capabilities, something that was never utilized in the college ranks, then his ceiling is as an inconsistent dump-down threat and sizable post defender. That's it. But I can't even envision that happening. Boogie is motivated by every single sleight he perceives from fans, the media, opposing players, and entire organizations. Trust me ... he's not gonna let himself fall to this level.

Benoit Benjamin - 7'0", 265 lb.
1988-1989 with Los Angeles Clippers
32.7 minutes, 16.4 points (54.1% FG, 74.4% FT), 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.8 blocks, .7 steals, 3.0 TOs

Beyond playing style comparisons, hopefully Demarcus will be able to quickly shed himself of the "Derrick Coleman" branding that he's been ordained with. While Coleman was an immensely productive big man for the majority of his 16 year career, the combination of weight issues, alcohol, and his consistently problematic behavior completely overruled his on-the-court play. Despite having the talent to be one of the greatest power forwards ever, Coleman was content with a single All-Star appearance and only two showings on the All-NBA Third Team. If that abbreviated trophy case is all Demarcus winds up with in the twilight of his playing days, he'll have been a major disappointment, too.

While pretty much everyone expects Cousins to start from day one with the Kings to begin perfecting his two-man game with Tyreke Evans, he does have some legitimate competition for heavy minutes. Samuel Dalembert is probably going to be slated as the starting center while Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Darnell Jackson, and even fellow rookie Hassan Whiteside will compete for clock from the bench. This logjam will be easily remedied from Cuz's perspective if he's physically capable of holding his own in the early going at the center position, as well. That way he can just naturally slide over one spot when Dalembert goes to the bench and preserve his floor time. This is all assuming, though, that Boogie will be able to drop his penchant for committing stupid fouls. It's very telling that Demarcus was only able to play 23 of 40 minutes of college ball on a nightly basis because of foul trouble, stunting what could have been Player of the Year caliber statistics. All things considered, I think Demarcus is a legitimate threat in the Rookie of the Year race and, by his third season, could already be in All-Star territory. If he plays his cards perfect, he has the potential to be an era-defining big man and wiggle his way into the heart of fans as the loveably tough monster, a la Shaq. Though many see it as a deterrent, I see his on-court ferociousness as a trait that could help seamlessly transition his game onto the pro level. You can bet anything that Favors won't be mixing it up, knocking against Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard from day one. Demarcus will.

... and do the John Wall.

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Game vs. Kanye

I got a new recurring post segment. It's called "Favors". And it has nothing to do with that guy taken before Boogie in the draft who won't really be that good. All it is is me quickly detailing the collaborative efforts back and forth between artists. Today's opening example is Kanye and Game.

2005
Game - Dreams
Kanye West - Crack Music (feat. Game)
2006
Game - Wouldn't Get Far (feat. Kanye West)

The combination of the two, verging on parody territory, was actually joked on in their music video to the song "Wouldn't Get Far". The L.A.-native who claimed Blood and was a former G-Unit start-up paired up with the early Chicago backpacker who was famous for his sped-up soul sampling beats and colorful polos. But they actually managed to find a creative medium and make dope music together.

The first incarnation was "Dreams" produced by Ye, Game's biggest hit outside of his 50-assisted singles. It brought out the heavy, introspective material in Game's lyricism that let the car bragging and gun toting take a backseat to relating a heartfelt story. Then the two jumped from Game's debut to Kanye's sophomore effort on the track "Crack Music" where Game lent his vocals to highlight the anthemic chorus. Apparently there was supposed to be a guest verse as well, but money issues got in the way at the time of the album's release. The two finally got a full collaboration out on the aforementioned "Wouldn't Get Far" where they traded musings on the rap game's video vixens. As an added bonus, they collected their promo checks by jumping on a commercial with Luda for Boost Mobile. You prolly remember that one, now.



... and do the John Wall.

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