2010-2011 Utah Jazz

Deron Williams is still one of the top three point guards in the league with Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur consistantly by his side, but now he has to adjust to swapping out Carlos Boozer for Al Jefferson, Ronnie Brewer for Raja Bell, and Chris Matthews for Gordon Hayward. I think D-Will is gonna be able to handle it.

2010-2011 Utah Jazz

Point Guard: Deron Williams/Ronnie Price/Earl Watson
Shooting Guard: C.J. Miles/Raja Bell/Sundiata Gaines
Small Forward: Andrei Kirilenko/Gordon Hayward/Jeremy Evans
Power Forward: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap
Center: Mehmet Okur/Francisco Elson

There's a very solid argument to be made that Al Jefferson will eclipse Carlos Boozer's impact on the floor with ease. I tend to vouch for that side of the argument. Jefferson is a monster. The point guards he's had over his career have been Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair, Marko Jaric, and Jonny Flynn. Taking in all that information ... I think AJ's in for a career year. He's mobile enough to be moderately effective in the pick-and-roll, but his main boost will simply come from Williams creating for him. With Jefferson's length, he'll be an easy target no matter where Williams is on the floor and he'll find him on target every time. This eliminates any excessive decision-making from Al's side (which is a good thing). Now he can just go in there to rebound and score. Okur's going to be giving him plenty of room to work as he'll be three miles down the road from the paint. Boozer already had a Malone-ish type build and game, but Jerry Sloan should be just as effective in finding Jefferson's best chance to put up All-Star numbers as an amazing second fiddle to his elite point guard.

Unless he's traded, it looks like Kirilenko will be back to full-time starting duties and have a more prominent role on the squad. He's never going back to most-underrated-player-in-the-game status, but he still possesses the capabilities to be one of the most feared defenders out. Assuming Raja Bell's fully recovered from his wrist injury, Bell will look to also help bring the Jazz's former elite defensive reputation back to the minds of competitors. C.J. Miles and Earl Watson are also capable of stifling any opposing wing on a given night, so I definitely see this incarnation of the Jazz being revitalized in their perimeter D.

Hopefully Mehmet Okur will be able to stay healthy for a little while after he gets back around Christmas, but Paul Millsap is absolutely (and desperately) ready to step into a full-time role regardless of Okur's status. The main value of Okur is that he forced a defensive shift that few teams can naturally adapt to with a big man on the 3-point line, but the Jazz will never be short on low post production between Millsap and Jefferson. They put the team together in a way where they really don't have that much of a falloff even though they lost three starters from free agency deflection. I do have them dropping five games off last season's win total and one seed back in the West, but that's mainly just from health concerns and the potential meteoric improvement of the Rockets and Thunder. They'll definitely be a threat come playoff time if Jefferson can fit in as great as I assume he will. Unfortunately for Utah, I got them running into the Oklahoma City juggernaut in the first round. And that means the Jazz will lose. Because the Thunder are gonna be better. Got it? Back to the drawing board if Jerry Sloan can still hold up his dry erase marker.

Prediction
Regular Season: 48-34
Playoffs: Eliminated in First Round

... and do the John Wall.

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Patterson Expectations

Patrick Patterson - 6'9", 235 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
33 minutes, 14.3 points (57.5% FG, 34.8% 3PT, 69.2% FT), 7.4 rebounds, .9 assists, 1.3 blocks, .7 steals, 1.1 TOs

The University of Kentucky's modern day Paul Bunyan figure is now an NBA rookie. He was one of the very, very, very few bright spots shining through the catastrophic Billy G blip of an era. He was the guy who embodied every aspect of any local hero you could ever wish for. He was UK. Now he's a Rocket.

The big issue in looking at Pat's production from last season is the Demarcus Cousins effect. In his 2009 sophomore season, pre-Boogie, Pat put up 18/9/2 with 2 blocks and shot over 60% from the field. That drop in production would be a death toll for any other NBA prospect, but with his added skill of 3-point shooting and the scouts' understanding of his deference all last season to UK's incoming talent, Pat universally rose on everyone's draft boards. It was a crazy gutsy move for him, knowing that the team was in transition and he would have to sacrifice individual production on a monumental level. But he did it anyway, lived with the sacrifice, and was better off (playing-wise and monetarily) because of it. Win-win.

All that being said and as hard as it is for me to admit, I don't think P-Patt has a very good chance at an All-Star level career. Because of that, I see his ceiling as a Horace Grant-type 3rd option player. Grant did sneak in an All-Star appearance in '94 while MJ was busy watching a few baseball games, but he was more noted for his defensive work and tenure, logging over 30 minutes per game in 13 of his 17 NBA seasons. Horace has a little bit of height over Patrick and better natural defensive instincts so far, but Pat already has more consistency in his jumper and far better range. One thing that has to be a major focus for Patterson is developing his passing ability, which was completely nonexistent at UK, if he has any hopes of being as productive as Grant. He won't be seeing many dump-down, clear out situations in the pros due to his lack of size, but being a high energy guy on the boards will go a long way in him defining his game and surprising a lot of people with his insane level of strength and fitness.

Horace Grant - 6'10", 215 lb.
1993-1994 with Chicago Bulls
36.7 minutes, 15.1 points (52.4% FG, 59.6% FT), 11 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.6 TOs

In the same way I don't think P-Patt has as high of a ceiling as the other 2010 UK rookies at the pro level, he also has a shorter drop as to what his worst case scenario is. The most frequent modern day comparison used for Patrick is current undersized Jazz forward Paul Millsap; and it's highly warranted. Millsap is a workhorse who runs the fast break well, has an adequate mid-range shot, and destroys his oversized competition on the board, all these being things that Patrick's already got on lock and ready to contribute at the pro level. Yet he's probably going to be a career back-up unless he gets on another squad purged of all front court size. He spent all of his first four seasons as Carlos Boozer's bench relief and is set to play the same role in Al Jefferson's shadow for the foreseeable future. The highlight of Millsap's early career was taking advantage of Booze's injury-prone nature in the '09 season where he had 38 starting opportunities. He put up a string of 19 consecutive double-doubles in Boozer's absence, showing off his capability as an NBA starter. But Millsap was relegated once again to mop-up duty once he returned.

Paul Millsap - 6'8", 245 lb.
2008-2009 with Utah Jazz
30.1 minutes, 13.5 points (53.4% FG, 69.9% FT), 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 1.7 TOs

I'm personally rooting for the Rockets to win the Carmelo sweepstakes and trade away half their big men for him. Unless Patrick's able to pull the ability to handle the ball out of a magic hat in the next month, he's stuck as an undersized power forward or super-undersized center in the most dire of instances. With that niched position in mind, it sucks that the Rockets currently employ Yao Ming, Brad Miller, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and Jordan Hill all fighting for those 96 big men minutes between them. The only guy Patrick's probably ahead of on the depth chart is Hill. Plus you gotta figure that Yao and Scola get at least 65 of those available minutes between them. Not good for a rookie. So unless something big changes, we may not see a lot of P-Patt in the early going. But he's too solid to not break his way into someone's rotation and be an impact player at some point. Big Blue nation will be right behind him for the entire journey. He's our guy.

... and do the John Wall.

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Cousins Expectations

Demarcus Cousins - 6'11", 270 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
23.5 minutes, 15.1 points (60.4% FG, 55.8 FT%), 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 steals, 2.1 TOs

The guy's a beast.

Demarcus Cousins probably should have gone before John Wall in the draft. He's more talented and more productive on the court. That shows you how much his demeanor and sullied media reputation scared off NBA GMs. Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and Wes Johnson are all half the talent that Demarcus is on the floor, but they all had squeaky clean images associated with them. Demarcus has to use this as motivation every single day for the rest of his career to prove that he can be an elite big man against the greatest competition he could ever face.

An acceptable start for his career would be for him to achieve Al Jefferson numbers. The only catch is that, though it took Al 3 years before he nudged himself up to double-double territory, Cousins needs to get there right now. They have a lot of the same skills, as both are amongst the rare bigs left who show off a polished back-to-the-basket post game with deft hooks from either hand. They're both long-armed trees in the paint who, though may not consistently make the right defensive decisions, are always a threat for straight-up or help-side blocks. Their biggest difference is in the fact that Al is distinctively mild mannered while Demarcus is always the aggressor. Jefferson's numbers should be a jumping pad for Cousins. In all honesty, Boogie's best case scenario should be Shaq-like numbers; he's actually that talented. But I'm trying to keep it more realistic and taper off my expectancy of Cuz at the level of a better version of Jefferson. We all cool with that?

Al Jefferson - 6'10", 265 lb.
2008-2009 with Minnesota Timberwolves
36.7 minutes, 23.1 points (49.7% FG, 73.8% FT), 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.8 blocks, .8 steals, 1.8 TOs

The worst case for Boogie is a heavy pitfall to the level of Benoit Benjamin. Picked third by the Clips based on his size and potential upside, Benjamin failed to ever break out as anything more than a serviceable role player bugged by nagging injuries. This is where Demarcus would fall only if his weight is a recurring issue and he never fully dedicates himself to putting in the gym time to perfect his craft. If he's not able to show off his perimeter capabilities, something that was never utilized in the college ranks, then his ceiling is as an inconsistent dump-down threat and sizable post defender. That's it. But I can't even envision that happening. Boogie is motivated by every single sleight he perceives from fans, the media, opposing players, and entire organizations. Trust me ... he's not gonna let himself fall to this level.

Benoit Benjamin - 7'0", 265 lb.
1988-1989 with Los Angeles Clippers
32.7 minutes, 16.4 points (54.1% FG, 74.4% FT), 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.8 blocks, .7 steals, 3.0 TOs

Beyond playing style comparisons, hopefully Demarcus will be able to quickly shed himself of the "Derrick Coleman" branding that he's been ordained with. While Coleman was an immensely productive big man for the majority of his 16 year career, the combination of weight issues, alcohol, and his consistently problematic behavior completely overruled his on-the-court play. Despite having the talent to be one of the greatest power forwards ever, Coleman was content with a single All-Star appearance and only two showings on the All-NBA Third Team. If that abbreviated trophy case is all Demarcus winds up with in the twilight of his playing days, he'll have been a major disappointment, too.

While pretty much everyone expects Cousins to start from day one with the Kings to begin perfecting his two-man game with Tyreke Evans, he does have some legitimate competition for heavy minutes. Samuel Dalembert is probably going to be slated as the starting center while Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Darnell Jackson, and even fellow rookie Hassan Whiteside will compete for clock from the bench. This logjam will be easily remedied from Cuz's perspective if he's physically capable of holding his own in the early going at the center position, as well. That way he can just naturally slide over one spot when Dalembert goes to the bench and preserve his floor time. This is all assuming, though, that Boogie will be able to drop his penchant for committing stupid fouls. It's very telling that Demarcus was only able to play 23 of 40 minutes of college ball on a nightly basis because of foul trouble, stunting what could have been Player of the Year caliber statistics. All things considered, I think Demarcus is a legitimate threat in the Rookie of the Year race and, by his third season, could already be in All-Star territory. If he plays his cards perfect, he has the potential to be an era-defining big man and wiggle his way into the heart of fans as the loveably tough monster, a la Shaq. Though many see it as a deterrent, I see his on-court ferociousness as a trait that could help seamlessly transition his game onto the pro level. You can bet anything that Favors won't be mixing it up, knocking against Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard from day one. Demarcus will.

... and do the John Wall.

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