The Lost Recruits: 2010

I love the heavy months of high school basketball recruiting. Having John Calipari as your head coach will make you obsessive about that kind of thing. So many kids become the most important thing a UK fan could possibly keep tabs on, only to fade from our entire conscious the second they pick the hat of another program. I wanted to bring back our old temporary dudes to give a perspective on if Coach Cal has been making the perfect recruiting pulls that we assume he's been making as our infallible grand puba. I covered the 2009 class here.

All of the given rankings are according to Rivals and all the stats are displayed as points/rebounds/assists blocks-steals with percentages given as (field goal/three-point/free throw)%.

#1 (PG) Josh Selby
NCAA - Kansas (2010-2011): 8/2/2 0-1 with (37/36/76)% at 20 MPG in 26 games
NBA - Declared for 2011 NBA Draft (#44 by Chad Ford)
A number of UK fans grieved once news got out that Selby wouldn't be joining Brandon Knight to create a second straight year of a dual point guard backcourt. Shortly after his Kansas announcement, UK fans took a sigh of relief once it was announced Selby would be suspended by the NCAA for the first nine games of the the season after receiving $4,607.58 in improper benefits by an agent that included clothes, transportation, meals, and lodging. If this would've happened to a UK recruit, it would've been widely assumed that John Calipari directly set up those expenses through that agent. Once Kansas broke past the cupcake part of its non-conference schedule, Selby's production plummeted and he essentially became a non-factor as Tyshawn Taylor's back-up. He did debut on fire, making 8 three-pointers between his first two games, but his stroke quickly wavered and his elite penetration ability never surfaced effectively against collegiate defenses. He also only totaled two games with more than four assists, so his playmaking never settled in to allow him to contribute on the court when his shot wasn't dropping. Selby has already declared his intention to leave for the NBA this summer, despite his expected fall to a late-first round pick.

Bottom-line: Great pass. It was unknown at the time, but Selby was a huge ineligibility risk. It's crazy to say that we should be glad we missed the top 2010 recruit, but we should be glad. He may have flourished given extensive minutes in Kentucky's offense, but he would've taken the ball out of Knight's hands and killed off much of what Knight did to run this ball club. Even if he were swapped out with Knight, our offense would've stagnated and been far more turnover-prone than it already was.

#4 (PG) Kyrie Irving
NCAA - Duke (2010-2011): 18/3/4 1-2 with (53/46/90)% at 28 MPG in 11 games
NBA - Declared for 2011 NBA Draft (#1 by Chad Ford)
Back when Irving spurned Kentucky and Indiana to sign with Duke, he was assumed to be in the second tier of top talent in his class. Brandon Knight was leaning towards UK at the time and was the top 2010 prize in most fans' eyes at the time, so everyone quickly got over the Irving defection. Irving pretty much universally jumped to the top of the heap as a potential world-class playmaker after his commitment. Irving proved everyone right as he was an absolute sensation from the very second he stepped on the court. He scored and got to the line with ease, never forgetting to set up his teammates along the way. The only force that could take the super-frosh down a notch was when a structural foot problem flared up, killing his toe and requiring surgery. There goes the youngster's season. Except he popped right back up at tournament time playing at near-full strength and was able to get to the rim with the exact same ease as before, netting 28 points in his possible final game as an amateur ballplayer.

Bottom-line: Situational toss-up. The problem here is the word "structural." I give the hypothetically-healthy Irving the "best freshman in the world" award, hands down. In that case, he's a huge miss for Calipari who's made his living on securing those guys. But if we travel down the road of what-ifs ... what if Irving selects UK and Knight decides he doesn't want to play off-ball, heading up to Connecticut or down to Florida? Kentucky breaks out of the gates in monstrous fashion to secure a top-5 early season ranking, but Irving's inevitable foot problem shows up less than a month in. We're sunk the rest of the season with an inadequate point-guard-by-committee line-up since we have no clear back-up. That's a disaster. If his toe was bound to be a problem, it's a miracle we passed on him. Amazing player and, by all accounts, a great kid, but we couldn't have survived signing him and not Knight.

#7 (PF) Tobias Harris
NCAA - Tennessee (2010-2011): 15/7/1 1-1 with (46/30/75)% at 29 MPG in 34 games
NBA - Declared for 2011 NBA Draft (#29 by Chad Ford)
Harris dropped Kentucky and Syracuse for Tennessee before his future Vol teammates were caught with a gun and other inappropriate things to have in a car you're driving, but stuck faithfully to his commitment. The kid was obviously a big Bruce Pearl guy and is now set to head to the NBA since Pearl got the boot from TN. Harris was one of UK fans' original big men to fawn over (along with Terrence Jones and C.J. Leslie) before he instantly became hated for picking our SEC rival. He kept a much lower profile than we're accustomed to seeing from Tennessee players off the court. And while he was highly ignored in the grand scheme of things with UK's freshman stealing all the SEC attention for the second straight year, he might've been the second-best frosh after Brandon Knight in the conference.

Bottom-line: Miss. I think Harris would've been a more consistent force in UK's system than what Jones turned into late. He was lost amidst a disorganized and troubled Tennessee squad all season, yet still managed to be one of their few bright spots as the team's second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's a hard worker who would've fit in seamlessly with any squad he chose to commit to. Plus, if he had come to UK then he might've been the type of guy who'd be more inclined to stay longer than just his freshman season. At worst, fans would've thrown less things at their TVs than Jones caused in the second half of the season.

#11 (SG) Will Barton
NCAA - Memphis (2010-2011): 12/5/3 1-2 with (43/27/70)% at 31 MPG in 35 games
NCAA - Will return to Memphis for 2011-2012
Numerous sites reported Barton as Calipari's first 2010 commitment before he'd ever even coach a game wearing a UK blue tie. Fans were relieved because we have a penchant for stressing about stuff years before it even affects us. Then Barton signed right away ... with Memphis. A year later as he was finally getting out of high school, the NCAA declared him academically ineligible. But then they cleared him before the season started. That minor crisis was averted and he took his top-10 talent and played great all year, forcing his way into the starting line-up after only a few games. His only misstep along the way was guaranteeing a championship for the Tigers in the preseason.

Bottom-line: Toss-up. It depends on what you value out of the off-guard position as to whether you'd prefer Barton or Lamb with UK's 2010-2011 squad. Barton is much more dynamic and a freak athlete, but Lamb shot nearly twice Barton's percentage from deep. Both seem set to come back for their sophomore seasons, so you can't even weigh that into the long-term debate. Do you want the benefit of the potential superstar-type slasher or the long-range stud role player who accidentally drops seven 3s one night? Though Barton was an eligibility risk at one point, he would've been a great plug-in addition to our squad.

#14 (PF) C.J. Leslie
NCAA - NC State (2010-2011): 11/7/1 1-1 with (43/25/54) at 25 MPG in 30 games
NBA - Expected to enter 2011 NBA Draft (#37 by Chad Ford)
Most UK fans assumed that John Wall's high school teammate was a shoe-in to follow his foot steps to Lexington. Little did they know that Wall helped talk Calipari off recruiting Leslie. While a number of writers questioned Cal for "losing" Leslie to N.C. State, it's pretty obvious that Cal was actually the one doing the spurning. On the basketball side of things, Leslie has limitless athletic potential and a natural NBA-type body, but his skill set itself is much less defined. He had quite a few solid scoring games this year, but was wildly inconsistent with nine games of 5 or less points. He was also suspended on the eve of his squad getting blown-out by Duke for an unspecified violation of team rules.

Bottom-line: Great pass. On the court, Leslie would've been a downgrade across the board from Terrence Jones (16/9/2 2-1). Off the court, he would've brought character issues to a team who pretty much succeeded solely on the basis of team chemistry. UK detractors would've had a field day with Leslie, but he's gone essentially unnoticed in the less-than-bright lights of N.C. State.

#16 (C) Fab Melo
NCAA - Syracuse (2010-2011): 2/2/0 1-0 with (61/0/36)% at 10 MPG in 33 games
NCAA - Expected to return to Syracuse for 2011-2012
Melo eliminated Kentucky when he cut his list down to his final four schools. It was always an outside shot of getting in close with him, but Calipari and his staff were found at quite a few of his games. He's a mammoth of a center who was pegged for U of L for quite awhile, though Jim Boeheim ended up pulling him for Syracuse. Now that I think about it, once getting a Melo commitment wouldn't result in spiting Rick Pitino, maybe Calipari simply lost interest and let Boeheim keep him. Melo also did little for the majority of the season to show his potential as a legitimate post presence, failing to even put up Daniel Orton numbers off the Orange's bench in his freshman season. He was also suspended toward the end of the regular season for missing practice.

Bottom-line: Irrelevant. Though Cal switched up his offense to allow Cousins to flourish last year, Melo isn't half as talented as Demarcus and probably would've been a rough squeeze into the dibble-drive motion offense. While he may have had a major opportunity in the wake of Enes' ineligibility and Harrellson's graduation, it seems as if UK didn't miss out on too much by not snatching Melo. He would've been a tremendous upgrade over Eloy Vargas, though, and is a player that people still believe could be an NBA prospect.

If you can think of any other 2010 guys, let me know. Even though we missed out playing the big guy, Cal's seven-man class of (#3) Enes Kanter, (#6) Brandon Knight, (#13) Terrence Jones, (#21) Doron Lamb, (#33) Stacey Poole, (#26 in 2008) Eloy Vargas, and (not ranked) Jarrod Polson proved to not be too shabby. None of the other guys I just discussed are getting sized for their Final Four rings this year. Next time I'll tackle the upcoming class of 2011 ... even though we can't even begin to evaluate them yet. Ha. Oh well.

... and Free Enes.

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The Maui Invitational

Us being all dejected ... (AP Photo/Eugene Tanner)

Terrence Jones
Game 1: 29/13/3, (12-17 FGs, 0-2 3PT, 5-9 FTs), 2 steals, 4 blocks in 35 minutes
Game 2: 16/17/2, (4-13 FGs, 0-2 3PT, 8-14 FTs), 1 steal, 4 blocks, 4 fouls in 36 minutes
Game 3: 24/4/1, (6-11 FGs, 4-4 3PT, 8-9 FTs), 2 steals, 2 blocks, 4 fouls in 27 minutes
You know what TJ got most hyped about in his Game 1 performance? Taking the ball off a rebound and sprinting with it across the entire court and throwing a no-looker to catch Josh Harrellson perfectly in stride for a lay-up. You couldn't erase that ensuing grin if your life depended on it. Terrence got the most buzz of anyone not named Kemba Walker in this tourney and even got the Chad Ford nod in his potential to be the top pick in the NBA draft. Crazy stuff. But it's undeniably justified when you see how thoroughly Jones seems to be able to do any and everything he wants to on the floor. Besides not get whistled for fouls. His tournament-concluding night of 4-for-4 three-pointers was nearly mind-boggling. He’s the heart and soul of our team right now.
Outlook: If it weren't for foul trouble, Jones' trip would have been flawless. While all of the calls against him weren't deserved, he has to get used to it and avoid the situations anyways. He’s averaging 21/10/2 on 50% shooting from the field … so why don’t we just go out on a limb and put the lofty expectations on him of maintaining that? Just to push meaningless what-ifs on you a little more: if Terrence made all of his free throw attempts so far, he’d be averaging 25.4 points a night in these opening 5 games. The kid’s slated as Kevin Garnett’s heir at that point.

Brandon Knight
Game 1: 13/2/3, (4-15 FGs, 2-8 3PT, 3-5 FTs), 5 TOs in 35 minutes
Game 2: 24/4/0, (10-17 FGs, 1-6 3PT, 3-6 FTs), 1 steal, 8 TOs, 4 fouls in 28 minutes
Game 3: 6/2/5, (3-15 FGs, 0-8 3PT, 0-1 FTs), 1 steal, 5 TOs in 38 minutes
He had the worst shooting night of his young career in the opening game and followed it by his worst ball-handling game in the semis. And then he followed it by an even worse shooting night. Not the greatest of vacations for our resident superstar point guard ... in fact, it was egregiously painful for the most part. He finished 3 of 22 three-pointers and averaged 6 turnovers a game compared to 2.7 assists. If it wasn't for his 24-point outing showing off his strong floor game against a strong Washington team, this would have been an unsalvageable trip for the guy.
Outlook: His shooting stroke was off and at times he almost looked selfish. He has to hone his confidence while understanding that he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt in throwing his body around recklessly in big games. He simply needs to keep his eyes open for kick-outs. I in no way think these rough games are a sampling of things to come for Knight. He's too intelligent on the floor for that.

DeAndre Liggins
Game 1: 12/5/4, (5-9 FGs, 2-4 3PT, 0-2 FTs), 3 steals in 35 minutes
Game 2: 7/4/2, (2-7 FGs, 3-6 FTs), 3 steals, 1 block in 26 minutes
Game 3: 8/3/1, (3-10 FGs, 0-2 3PT, 2-3 FTs), 1 steal, 4 TOs in 38 minutes
The stats aren't quite all the way there for Dre, but everyone watching the game knows he's been high impact every minute. And because of that, we’ll forgive him for not being able to shut down Kemba Walker while Walker was doing his best Michael Jordan impression. Most of DeAndre’s focus has been on the defensive end where he’s proven productive against such scorers as Jared Stohl and Isaiah Thomas, but his offensive output hasn’t registered with the same vigor. He’s only averaging 9 points per game in the early going.
Outlook: With Dre’s driving and shooting ability, he needs to up himself to around 13 or 14 points a night. His body’s big enough to where he should be a free throw shooting machine, but he’s only averaging 3.6 attempts per game. That could easily be doubled with how well he gets to the rim and absorbs contact. Since Dre is already the ultimate intangibles guy, there’s no need to harp on his peripheral stats. He’s going to give his all by being unselfish, hitting the boards, and digging in on defense no matter what the numbers tell you.

Doron Lamb
Game 1: 12/3/2, (4-8 FGs, 2-3 3PT, 2-4 FTs), 1 steal in 30 minutes
Game 2: 6/1/1, (2-10 FGs, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FTs), 1 block, 4 fouls in 28 minutes
Game 3: 5/0/0, (2-5 FGs, 1-2 3PT, 0-0 FTs), 2 TOs in 14 minutes
After the Oklahoma win, Lamb was riding the waves of a magical early freshman run. After the pressure defense imposed by Washington’s guards, Lamb was brought back down to earth with exposed growing pains. Whether it was simply getting the ball ripped from him or being drawn into a charge, Doron couldn’t manage to handle the ball and get the team into its offensive sets. But what he could do, minus his awful Washington showing, is shoot the ball. He’s 9-of-16 so far on the year. That’s killer.
Outlook: His ball-handling woes have to be cured. The Washington game tape will be a how-to training video for all future opponents on how to guard Doron and try to entice him into turnovers. If that can be tightened, then the focus can turn back to how sharp and lethal his shooting stroke has looked. There’s no reason he can’t average 12 points off the bench with a 3-pointer (or five) nightly.

Darius Miller
Game 1: 5/5/0, (2-5 FGs, 1-3 3PT), 1 steal, 4 fouls in 26 minutes
Game 2: 8/3/1, (2-5 FGs, 1-2 3PT, 3-4 FTs), 1 steal, 1 block, 4 fouls in 24 minutes
Game 3: 15/4/2, (6-14 FGs, 2-5 3PT, 1-3 FTs) in 29 minutes
Darius has mysteriously looked lost since he made his way into the middle of the Pacific Ocean. If it weren’t for his more focused effort in the UCONN loss, fans would’ve probably wholly given up on Miller as major force. We thought he got caught in the headlights of last year’s freshmen and their collective shiny hype, but Darius has unfortunately seemed to take a firm backseat to this year’s group again.
Outlook: I like him taking around 15 shots a game far more than I like him watching the ball from the wing and accidentally throwing up 5 afterthoughts. Miller being offensively aggressive will make Brandon Knight’s job a whole lot easier going forward. If opposing defenses are taking note of Darius as a three-point threat (making a good 4-of-10 in the tourney), Knight will find himself with a lot more space on both his pick-and-rolls and simple drives. If Darius can focus on forcing himself to stay involved by creating his own shot opportunities, the rest of his game with naturally follow and he’ll be the do-everything 15/6/4/2/1 guy that we so desperately want him to be. And know he can be.

Josh Harrellson
Game 1: 2/3/0, (1-3 FGs), 4 fouls in 20 minutes
Game 2: 9/14/1, (4-6 FGs, 1-2 3PT), 1 steal, 2 blocks in 34 minutes.
Game 3: 0/6/0, (0-1 FGs), 1 steal, 2 blocks in 25 minutes
Game 2 was the best effort of Josh's career. Between the timely three-pointer, the gorgeous alley to TJ's -oop, and the 14 boards, we had ourselves an impact player. He didn't even get in foul trouble! But as soon as we thought he got himself into the swing of things, he comes up with a donut in Game 3 with only 6 meager boards to show for it.
Outlook: We simply need more of the Harrellson we got against Washington. I don’t care if he scores double digits for the entire season, but he just can’t be a guy who’s afraid to take shots, finish put-backs, or secure rebounds. He needs to nestle in around a 7-point, 7.5-board average and prove himself valuable enough to stay on the floor for over 25 minutes a game. The occasional surprise three-pointer will be awesome, too.

Eloy Vargas
Game 1: 2/4/1, (1-1 FGs) in 16 minutes
Game 2: 4/1/0, (1-1 FGs, 2-2 FTs) in 6 minutes
Game 3: 6/6/0, (1-2 FGs, 4-4 FTs), 1 steal, 2 blocks in 19 minutes
He's still incredibly irrelevant for the most part, but Vargas bookended Game 2 with a fantastic tip slam and two clutch free throw swishes. I'll take it. I’ll also take the confidence Vargas showed in calling his own number by backing down and taking a strong hook shot in Game 3. Those opportunities will be few and far between though if he’s not able to get stronger and give Coach Cal a reason to believe that he can hold his own and not be sent sprawling to the floor by any random opponent regardless of size.
Outlook: He has to simply be competent as Josh’s back-up since it looks like Coach is staying away from the small ball line-up for now. His offensive opportunities will continue to be few and far between, but his 5-of-7 field goal shooting and 6-of-6 free throw shooting for the season so far is definitely encouraging. He doesn’t quite look like he’s all the way there to be any more than a 3-board, 1-block a night contributor, but there’s always room for him to surprise us in a stretch run against the right team.

Jon Hood
Game 1: 1/2/0, (1-2 FTs) in 3 minutes
Game 2: 0/1/0, (0-3 FGs, 0-2 3PT), 1 steal in 9 minutes
Game 3: 3/3/0, (1-2 FGs, 1-1 3PT) in 9 minutes
He shows no confidence when he’s on the floor. He just looks like he’s fiending to get a shot up as quick as possible to prove his worth, even though making a jumper or two won’t be anywhere close enough of a reason to keep him out there in the wing rotation anyways.
Outlook: Jon doesn’t look like he’s taken the leap yet to be an NCAA contributor. The only way he sees the floor this season is with further significant foul trouble or an injury and a half to the rotation wings.

Stacey Poole
Game 1: DNP
Game 2: 0/0/0, (0-2 FGs, 0-1 3PT) in 8 minutes
Game 3: 0/0/0, (0-0 FGs) in 1 minute
Stacey only got into the action in Game 2 due to some unforeseen wing foul trouble, and he immediately attempted to jack up shots to make up for lost time. And he missed.
Outlook: He didn’t make anything of his Game 2 opportunity to close the first half. So we’ll just keep him in the non-factor folder until further notice.

Jarrod Polson
Game 1: DNP
Game 2: 0/0/0, (0-0 FGs) in 1 minute
Game 3: DNP
Outlook: None whatsoever.

... and Free Enes.

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The Enes Kanter Crap

Photo by Lexington Herald-Leader's Mark Cornelison

Barring a shocking appeal overturn on the grounds of "logic" and "human feeling", Enes Kanter will be permanently ineligible to play any form of NCAA basketball. That sucks. For us and him. Here's why ...

For Us
No matter what you're hearing from fringe reactant stories by certain writers, Enes would be the best player in college basketball this season. He is a workhorse like few you've ever seen at his age, most likely due to his priming in the Turkish junior leagues practically since he hit puberty. He's chiseled out of granite in the form of an NBA All-Star at the age of 18 since he spends countless hours voluntarily weightlifting beyond the normal basketballer's regiment. Juggling the randomness of the NCAA allowing and then not allowing him to practice with the team on a daily basis, Kanter has become best friends with the ball-return machine. I once witnessed knock in 20-foot jumper after 20-foot jumper while yelling across the court at Brandon Knight's assigned rebounder, jokingly insulting him the entire time. He's a complete goofball who has more fun with his mildly broken English than anyone has a right to. It's a shame that he's been mostly kept under wraps from the media by the athletics association due to the ongoing eligibility concerns; by now he would even more of a national celebrity and UK advocate by way of his hilarious irrelevant commentary on all things in life.

And none of this even speaks to how he makes the full-team practices a joke. In case you thought Kanter's 34-point/13-rebound domination in at the Nike Hoop Summit (mostly against Terrence Jones) was a fluke ... it wasn't. Kanter scores at will in every way imaginable, pushing Harrellson, Vargas, and Jones into a constant game where it's a braggable badge of honor whenever someone's able to score on him. Kanter breaks up every alley-oop, pins every driving lay-up on the backboard, and makes attempts at post-up scoring irrelevant. In fact, the only thing Kanter hasn't seemed to master yet is the art of not goaltending. He seems dumbfounded every time he's reminded that you ... um ... can't do that in America.

Here's the bottom line: if Kanter (being a hair in front of Jared Sullinger as the most dominant post presence in college basketball) were available in this Wildcat line-up, we'd be a top-4 team all year and a feared championship contender by April's end. It sucks that we have to now play small ball for 70% of the game now and have to simply try and make it work instead of playing small ball for 10% of the game when Enes takes a breather to go and lift some weights. We would even more-so be the national headline-dominating squad of the year, seamlessly transitioning from the Wall/Cousins era and perfectly priming the public for the unimaginable Gilchrist/Teague/Davis era of next season. But now we're going to have to settle for being a top-15 squad who relies a little too heavily on massive amounts of 3-pointers and prays that the opposition doesn't dump it down in the post too often. We're still in for a highly entertaining year with some great personalities on a team that seems to genuinely enjoy playing with each other, but with Enes in the fold ... it would have been legendary.

For Him
He's a good kid. No matter how slimy you think Coach Cal's recruiting tactics are, no insinuated amount of improper benefits could compare to what Kanter could have made simply by staying home and playing overseas on a real contract for two or three years until he wanted to make NBA money. Instead, Kanter came to America for the hope of playing as an amateur and being part of the amazing college basketball system we have. Instead of being the completely unknown and uncared-about Andrea Bargnani pick, Kanter wanted to be the locally relevant and massively popular Shaquille O'Neal of the 2011 NBA Draft.

Here's the random facts of his case: Kanter never signed a professional contract with Fenerbahce, he played as a barely-used reserve with some professionals for 9 games two years ago, he left that club to play a year of high school prep ball in America in hopes to play basketball in the NCAA, and his parents are rich. He didn't need any extra amount of money, much less $33,033. If he was really looking for a quick cash in, he would've stayed in Europe for millions and not wasted his time playing in an American high school. And this is even furthered by the fact that $20,000 was said to be used on educational expenses and the remaining $13,033 is sitting unused in the bank. The Kanters have offered to pay it all back and anything else the NCAA wants them to. What is the principle under all this? Yes, Kanter was "paid" but Kanter was not bought by some high-reaching sports agent hoping to sway all future 15-year-olds to sign under the table with their agency and sponsored shoe contracts to make millions off children. It's not like that. This crap was an innocent mistake that the Kanters didn't know would jeopardize their son's future basketball plans. It's not about the money. No one can disagree with that at this point.

For the NCAA
So what's it about? Is it about standing by the dry ink printed on a million-page document hoping to keep morals in check at the collegiate level? What morals were shattered by Kanter? Enes is an 18-year-old kid who's made his life and all its happenings completely transparent for the mythical NCAA people to judge him by. His parents received money in excess of what the NCAA deemed necessary and that's why he's not allowed to play. But they are willing to pay it all back because they don't need it and never did need it. Enes wants to play college basketball after doing no more than being an afterthought on a foreign team where he happened to mingle with Turkish professionals for 9 games. What about this seems subversive and ill-intentioned? What is the wrong-doing in this very specific case of Enes Kanter? He's offered to do every single thing the NCAA potentially would ask him to do to achieve eligibility, including willingly being suspended x amount of games with no questions asked. He just wants to be able to spend time practicing and traveling with these other 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds that he's become close with and wants a chance to contribute to and be a part of Kentucky basketball lore.

He's a human being. So I really hope human beings consider his case and make a final ruling with this impending appeal. And that's all I'll have to say about that.

... and Free Enes.

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Best/Worst/Probable Case for UK 2012 Roster

Signing day was yesterday for all the high school seniors who wanted to ink themselves to their basketball school, which of course has the most impact for UK fans as we're the rabidly drooling rankings perusers ever since Cal didn't walked through that one door we watched live feed of. So here's my personal opinion on the different scenarios that will form our roster for our predestined 2012 national championship.

Best Case: NBA LOCKOUT!!! I hate the notion as a pro fan, but UK fans want to personally go to David Stern and talk ish to ensure that he takes his wrath out on the Players Association. In this case, our only roster departure would be our resident senior, Josh Harrellson. Enes, Brandon, and Terrence would have no choice but to remain as the greatest sophomore class of all time and not take their talents straight to the lottery (as they'll pretty much be guaranteed to be drafted in, otherwise). Darius and DeAndre, who'll both have the NBA itch due to their breakout 2010-2011 campaigns, won't even have to send out draft feelers and put their names in for consideration. All the incoming freshmen will simply have to accept and make the most of their unexpected secondary roles since ... well, they've already signed in blood on their letters of intent. Besides, this would be the single most talented team in college basketball history. Ever.

C: Enes Kanter/Anthony Davis/Eloy Vargas
F: Darius Miller/Terrence Jones/Kyle Wiltjer
F: DeAndre Liggins/Michael Gilchrist/Jon Hood
G: Brandon Knight/Doron Lamb/Stacey Poole
G: Marquis Teague/Jarrod Polson

Calipari would have quite a job on his hands to define the roles and playing times for all the eligible ballers on this squad. There are literally ten starting-caliber players on this roster, so he gets to divvy up the new and experienced guys in whatever fashion he deems best. My guess is that the main starting line-up shake-up is Knight sliding to the 2-guard to take advantage of his scoring prowess and Teague's pass-first mentality. It would be the ultimate Wall/Bledsoe version 2.0 combo, though I would venture to say this incarnation would be more lethal due to Knight's consistent shooting stroke over Bledsoe's streaky one.

The front court would be where all the tough choices would lie. It would be hard to bench the two seniors in Miller and Liggins, especially considering their expected stellar production along with them earning their stripes in every way imaginable. So in this case I see the 4-wing/1-big combo being used at its finest. Terrence would have to take a slight back seat after being a freshman starter, but the promise of him being the leader of the second team should still hold appeal. His skill-set sure isn't going anywhere, so neither is his draft stock even if he comes off the bench. At this point, Cal can throw out any combo of skill sets that he wants. Defense? Kanter and Davis become the longest and most feared shot-blocking tandem since Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo. Shooting? Kanter and Wiltjer can pick and pop with the best, even extended to the three-point line. Small ball? Jones and Miller have the versatility to handle the ball with ease as well as the size to give nothing up to opposing big men. The best part about it all is that Eloy Vargas wouldn't be relied on to produce in any greater capacity than Perry Stevenson in 2009-2010. And that induces a sigh of relief.

The fact that Liggins and Gilchrist are interchangeable parts at this point is about the greatest situation you could ever have at the small forward position. Maybe Cal wants Dre's defensive intensity to head the back-up attack and Mike even gets the start on most nights. It wouldn't matter because they're both going to see monstrous amounts of floor time and have an impact every second. Perimeter shooting would never be a problem ever when you have the likes of Knight, Miller, Liggins, and Lamb still around in addition to Kanter, Jones, and Wiltjer being able to step out. This squad could literally put eight guys in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft. As long as they won a championship, not a single fan in the world should be disappointed in those decision. But maybe one or two of either Gilchrist, Teague, or Davis would want to stay that extra year to jump from the 25th pick to a top-5 guy the next draft. You never know at that point. Every kid who dons the UK jersey doesn't have the same mind state as Daniel Orton, ya know?

Bottom line ... this squad should and would run the table. I don't see how anyone could disagree at that point. High quality senior leadership? Two full #1 recruiting classes? Two elite, interchangeable point guards? Easily the best big in the nation? Over two-and-a-half deep at every single position? Perfection.

This is all assuming Kanter gets cleared to play college ball at all, of course. Sorry to pull you back into reality for a second ...

Worst Case: The crazy thing is that the starting line-up for our absolute worst case is still absolutely sick. That's the kind of thing you get when you net three of the top six freshmen basketball studs in the nation. But I'll focus on why we lose on everybody at this point ...

Enes, whether or not he's cleared to play a single game, is a top-3 draft pick next year. Most likely he's going to in the consensus 1-2 combo with Harrison Barnes a la Oden/Durant a few years back. It's that simple ... he's gone. Next is Terrence Jones who has far too much potential to not be capable of immediately making the jump. He really is a Lamar Odom clone; and with how well LO is killing it this season, teams will no doubt put a premium on that kind of contributor. He's got by pick #7. Next up is Brandon Knight. There's a reason why he used to be the best ranked player in his class across the board. The kid will put up monster scoring numbers, probably be the SEC player of the year, and on one of the All-American teams. Avery Bradley put up mediocre numbers as Texas' lead freshman guard and went #19 in the 2010 draft. Knight is picked by #15 in 2011.

Now for the unexpected departures. Miller and Liggins will both test the waters and will thoroughly enjoy what they hear. Both guys will be told that they're mid-first round picks due to their NBA size, skill sets, and winning mentalities displayed in UK's surprising 2011 season. Both will play the Jodie Meeks undecided game and finally choose to stay in the draft last-minute. Liggins goes #24 off the strength of his individual workouts, still farther back than he was initially told, and Miller slips to the #36 in the second round, having to fight his way into earning a guaranteed contract. But the fact remains ... the NBA stole five of our guys for the second straight year!!!

C: Anthony Davis/Eloy Vargas
F: Kyle Wiltjer/Trans. or Freshman
F: Michael Gilchrist/Jon Hood/Stacey Poole
G: Doron Lamb/Trevor Lacey
G: Marquis Teague/Jarrod Polson/Trans. or Freshman

Even with our roster being overturned on its second straight binge-and-purge, the remaining guys are still contender quality in the same way as Michigan State's Fab-5 was right off the bat. Gilchrist and Teague already have proven their unselfish chemistry on the U17 Olympic team this last summer together. Neither is your traditional high school blue chipper. Gilchrist didn't notch 50-point games, he wowed the scouts with his warrior-mentality of doing every single thing necessary to win, showing off his skill set and basketball IQ across the board. He's already got a pro's mentality to the game, he didn't have to show off and shoot 40 shots a game to prove to the recruiting gurus that he was a top-ranked guy. Teague also has lesser stats than other elite league guards of the last few years, but his outrageous yo-yo handling combined with his speed and pass-first mentality has him in the position as the best point guard coming out of high school, anyway. Davis is a guy who's going to come out as an elite shot blocker immediately and be a match-up nightmare who can fit in with whoever he's put out on the floor with. Wiltjer is simply a bonus at that point who switches up the looks from the bench as a more prominent shooter than low-post guy. With this roster-gutting, though, Coach Cal will have to work his magic to pull at least shooter Trevor Lacey and one or two more recruits we haven't heard of yet. We can't be going into the 2011-2012 season expecting to even hold a complete practice with 9 guys.

Even if Doron Lamb goes off this year, he's definitely not a sneak-in NBA guard in the mold of Eric Bledsoe. People question if Lamb can even dunk or not. Ha. So he'll be back as ... *gulp* ... the most experienced leader on the floor. But it will definitely be a pain with having to put 85% of our hopes on freshman production. The '10 team had Patterson, Miller, and Liggins as prominent experienced contributors while '11 had Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson in that same role. I sure don't wanna put all that weight on Lamb, Hood, and Poole. We'd still be insanely fun to watch and a threat to win any game we play, but the lack of depth will hurt us in the long run. I love our freshies, but for them to be required to put up transcendent numbers every single game is a stretch. Wall had a couple minor struggles while Cousins and Bledsoe had quite a few major struggles. So unless Anthony Davis is Greg Oden, Mike Gilchrist is Carmelo Anthony, and Marquis Teague is John Wall, we simply can't put up a transcendent sub-3-loss season like everybody's going to be wanting out of this squad.

Bottom line ... we're a sneaky Elite 8 team fighting the odds all season since we're too incredibly thin at all positions. A single injury would be crushing, and you definitely don't want to be sitting on a roster where you stress out every single drive and rebound over a sprained ankle.

Probable Case: The NBA isn't gonna lockout, so we'll meet somewhere in the middle. Enes, Knight, and Jones will all be beckoned away. But Miller and Liggins will stay after testing the draft waters and throw their names in as a 4-year UK legends. This slates our top three freshmen as starters to go with them and Doron Lamb as our bonafide scoring 6th man. We still need to get Trevor Lacey to have any level of depth at all and probably one additional big man recruit or transfer. We definitely still have title hopes with the talent on this squad, but we'll need Jon Hood to turn the corner as a legitimate college player and for Eloy to be able to pull down boards in spot minutes during his senior campaign. But simply noted, we will still have the most feared starting line-up in the NCAA with talent bulging out the seams.

C: Anthony Davis/Eloy Vargas
F: Darius Miller/Kyle Wiltjer
F: DeAndre Liggins/Jon Hood/Stacey Poole
G: Michael Gilchrist/Doron Lamb/Trevor Lacey
G: Marquis Teague/Jarrod Polson

Bottom line ... we're a definite Final Four team. We probably stay top-3 in the rankings for the entire season and are the favorites at tourney time. It's that simple.

... and Free Enes.

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UK-Pikeville 11/1/10

Our opening pre-season game smiled highly upon my Blue-White notes. The only early whiff was Terrence Jones, but I don't expect that to be the case in the future. I ventured a guess to expect around 24 points a game from B. Knight and the kid dropped 22 without even looking for his shot in the second half. I said that for all intensive purposes this was Darius' squad, and he went out there and notched 21/10/3. I hyped Liggins' all-around offensive game and he dropped 2 jumpers to go with his 5 lay-ups. I noted that Hood will probably fail to make it in the rotation and Coach Cal kept him benched the entire second half after a failed first half run. I said Vargas still can't absorb contact and he got proceeded to get rag-dolled by opponents half his size. I know that none of those predictions were anything life-changing or even that notable, but I'm just saying that these guys already have their roles cemented more than we give them credit for and are ready to contribute.

Top Players:
1. Brandon Knight: 22 points (6-11 FGs, 1-3 3Pt, 9-10 FTs), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals in 37 minutes. Knight saw the team couldn't get the ball in the basket in the early going, so he took over and put it in the hoop. Over and over again. He knocked in two great jumpers (a three and a long two) coming off picks which will keep the defense honest all the time and help his penetrating attack as well. He forced the action on a lot of breaks and forced the team to match his pace. His high-flying highlight of the night came in a clean swipe at the top of the key leading to a one-on-none fastbreak that he punctuated with a standing ovation-worthy slam. We'll be relying on Knight a lot to get us out of the occasional offensive funk. The game's just too easy for him. 2-Eezy. That's what I'll call him.

2. Darius Miller: 21 points (5-12 FGs, 0-3 3PT, 11-12 FTs), 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal in 36 minutes. Darius brought it all game long. If he could've dropped one of his attempted threes then his game would've been simply perfect. He got to the bucket at will and either finished creatively with a floater or got fouled. He looks like he definitely understands how to use his size now, as exemplified by his double-double production. Miller also showed off his confidence in isolation situations where he made big-time moves on the wing freeing him up for midrange jumpers. He's primed to have quite a few 20-point explosions this year.

3. DeAndre Liggins: 18 points (7-10 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 4-6 FTs), 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 1 steal in 34 minutes. Dre is our leader on the defensive end. He never gives up anything easy and never saw a loose ball that he didn't think he had a great shot at tracking down. All that's a given on every single night, but Liggins made a point to show off his offensive repertoire tonight. He only took a handful of shots between the Canada games and the Blue-White scrimmage, but he called his own number last night. Maybe the highlight of the game was his backdoor cut where he caught a perfect Miller pass and finished with a winding reverse lay-up as he crashed to the floor. Liggins is going to be bigger than a lot of the wings who are slated to guard him and he showed an understanding that this size differential aids him highly in sealing off his man and forcing his way towards the rim. There's absolutely nothing you could complain about with Liggins' decision-making or production last night.

4. Doron Lamb: 16 points (4-10 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 8-10 FTs), 5 rebounds, 1 steal in 28 minutes. He came on heavy late in the game with reckless abandon attacking the rim. He surprised everyone multiple times by crashing the offensive glass and mixing it up with the bigs. He looks to be the smallest guy on the floor a lot of nights, but that's great if he can keep up that fearlessness and cause random havoc down there. As with Knight and Miller, he was rewarded with double-digit free throw attempts due to his attacking mentality. We didn't get to see any of his patented floaters or midrange game last night, but that was because he got to the rim every time and never needed to pull those out of his arsenal. He didn't do much in the passing department, but if he can produce without a terrible shooting percentage, no one's going to complain.

5. Terrence Jones: 9 points (2-9 FGs, 0-3 3PT, 5-6 FTs), 7 rebounds, 1 block in 22 minutes. He had a hard time, but still contributed. Coach road him heavier than any of the other guys, but that's a good thing. It shows Jones that he has high expectations for him. We'll chalk this one up to nerves and hope TJ makes more of a concerted effort to be an inside force and never throw another inbounds pass turnover. (UPDATE: and as Ethan brought to my attention in the comments, Terrence doesn't want your freakin' water bottle, Tristan!!!)

6. Josh Harrellson: 3 points (3-4 FTs), 7 rebounds, 2 blocks in 16 minutes. Josh came in and controlled the boards from the minute he stepped on the floor. He got a monster ovation on a possession where he got consecutive offensive boards, kicking it out one time and putting it up to get fouled the second time. The opponents were undersized, but Josh made all the right decisions in his time off the bench.

7. Eloy Vargas: 5 points (1-1 FGs, 3-4 FTs), 6 rebounds, 2 blocks in 11 minutes. His only field goal was a botched alley-up where he just kind of bobbled it in since couldn't quite catch and dunk it. He let a smaller guy score right in his area about four times, which was very painful to watch, but he filled in pretty well in his limited time. His did get hyped on a nice blocked shot, but there were two separate occasions when he got possession of the ball and through a terrible outlet pass resulting in a turnover. He's gotta get his decision-making tighter and work on keeping his position.

... and Free Enes.

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Year Two Crop

Our new crop of NBA players. The rest of the world's gotta deal with it.

... and do the John Wall.

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Way-Too-Early 2011 UK Preview

I think next year’s team is Final Four caliber. I know that’s insane to say with all of the departures from last year. 4/6ths of our all-time freshman class left for professional pastures leaving the unproven pieces of Jon Hood and Darnell Dodson to try their hand at a second year of Division 1 basketball. With our seniors (Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson) and pseudo-senior (Patrick Patterson) also leaving, all veteran leadership is potentially left to big man senior Josh Harrellson and wing juniors Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins. Those obviously weren’t the optimal conditions to enter the summer under.

While anyone who wasn’t oblivious to the lures of being a top-5 draft pick knew that Demarcus Cousins and John Wall were guaranteed to have single year tenures, less expected Daniel Orton and Eric Bledsoe to have such high stock and bolt. Orton was supposed to effortlessly assume Jarvis Varnado’s place as the most feared big in the country. With his impeccable size and extra year amongst the college ranks, Orton could have put up monster numbers while inheriting literally all of Pat and Boogie’s frontline minutes. He could have showed everyone that he could stay out of foul trouble as well as have his face-up game utilized to prove his versatility and cement his status as one of Billy G’s proudest leftovers. Him and Bledsoe were supposed to become the nation’s elite 1-2 punch, usurping that claim from their former teammates the previous year. Bledsoe was going to slide into the pure point role and pair with Brandon Knight to cement the strongest backcourt combo along with the stupid Dukies (Kyrie Irving and Andre Dawkins). With his full year of off-guard experience, Bledsoe could have curbed his turnovers and established his elite passing skills that would so strongly compliment his otherworldly athleticism. But neither scenario will come to fruition as the pair’s raw skills and limitless potential has allowed them to be a first round pick on everyone and their mom’s draft board. So instead of bringing in some strong complimentary pieces to cement a mostly established Elite 8 roster, Coach Cal had to improvise an entire new team and managed to pull five more highly touted freshmen and an untapped Gator transfer into the fold. So here’s UK’s prospective do-over line-up.

C: Enes Kanter/Josh Harrellson
PF: Terrence Jones/Eloy Vargas
SF: Darius Miller/Darnell Dodson/Stacey Poole
SG: Doron Lamb/DeAndre Liggins/Jon Hood
PG: Brandon Knight/Jarrod Polson

The biggest difference that you need to understand right off the bat is how many more 3-point shooting options we will have this year. Doron Lamb is the perfect spot-up guard that Eric pretended to be for about 4 games, while Brandon Knight is a consistent threat to create his own long-range opportunities whenever he wants. Terrence Jones is also a more than capable shooter who will pick his spots since he has the ultimate floor-game in the mold of a player like Lamar Odom. Enes Kanter will be a surprise threat as a fast break trailer. While Coach Cal may or may not utilize his shooting specifically or regularly in the offense, you just need to know without a doubt that Enes is dead-eye from anywhere on the floor. I promise. With those four freshmen mixed in with the hopefully improving 3-point confidence of Darius and DeAndre plus Darnell as the ultimate wildcard, we should never have a game next season similar to the West Virginia brickfest. On paper, it’s impossible with this roster.

The second point of note is our reconstructed front court. The Cousins/Patterson/Orton trio has been completely reconstructed into a Kanter/Jones/Vargas trio with Harrellson on deck if Vargas doesn't adjust to the level of competition right away. As weird as it is to say, Jones could possibly be more productive than Pat was for most of the year in his power forward slot. The Dribble Drive Motion Offense is made to especially highlight two very specific skill sets. The first is a penetrating point guard who can finish with power to guarantee that the defense is drawn to the rim on any given play. Examples 1A, 1B, 1C, and 2 are Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, John Wall, and Brandon Knight. The second skill set is a forward who's a shooting threat, but one who can put the ball on the floor with ease. Unfortunately, Coach Cal hasn't had a premier prospect in that mold since Shawne Williams, who was more famous for his marijuana and codeine issues than his basketball skill set. So T-Jones is in line to be that guy in the system next year. Just know that it's gonna be fun. Before Terrence committed, Coach Cal was faced with a roster where he may have had to go exclusively with line-ups composed of 4 guards and a forward. But now we have the legitimate size threat again with the frontline clocking in at 6'11"/6'9"/6'11" that may see a rotation similar to last season's.

One potential situation that won't really be an issue, but will inevitably be written about shamelessly, is the point guard position. Knight will be the only true point in the rotation as no one expects Jarrod Polson to ever hit the floor besides in Krebs-like mop-up duty. Therefore, either Brandon is going to have to catch on seamlessly and stay on the floor every single minute or we'll have to have to institute a back-up-by-committee approach. That committee could very well look Gillispie-like with Miller and Liggins attempting their hand at ball handling duties along with Lamb whenever needed. So while it may look like a possible derailing point at some instance in the season, there will never actually be a real drop off at the lead guard during regulation. Plus, with a guy as multi-faceted as Jones, there will always be a capable player to step up who can get advance the ball to where it needs to be if Knight happens to be taking a breather. So, barring an actual Knight injury, don't worry about it.

Speaking of back-ups, we'll have quite a serviceable bench mob next season. DeAndre seems the likely candidate to be the first guy pulling off his warm-up jersey every night as he could actually, if needed, fill in any position 1-4. With his will to be an energy player, general unselfishness, and vastly improved shooting confidence, I like him as one of the best 6th men in the NCAA. Vargas will most likely be the first big to substitute in at the first sight of foul trouble. While not half the athlete of Orton a year ago, Eloy is actually significantly taller and has a hint of SEC experience and a full year of JuCo dominance under his belt. Hopefully that will translate into significant production, both on the defensive end and creating his own scoring opportunities on the offensive glass. Assuming that Hood doesn't make summer strides to leapfrog him or that Poole isn't quite an immediate contributor, Darnell Dodson is probably slated as the resident 8th man. If he can improve his general decision making, Dodson's shooting will be as strong a weapon as any team has coming off their bench. That kind of surprise player every few games is what changes this squad from a very, very good team to a great team. The last bench factor would be if you have faith in Harrellson's summer progression. He could never manage to break into the rotation last year, stuck even behind Stevenson. But with his sizable frame and sweet shooting stroke, any quality floor time from him would make us as deep a team as there is out there. Our bench is full of potential X-factors everywhere on the floor. If two or so of these guys click each game while the starters are chilling, there will be very few teams that could give us a run for our money.

Some may think that any expectations of matching or surpassing last season's breakout are utterly ridiculous. I thoroughly disagree with that notion. Though none of our freshmen are as singularly talented or naturally dominant as John Wall turned out to be, this recruiting class is much more balanced and provides the pivotal shooting proficiency that we lacked for the majority of the season. No one will be asked to play out of position as Bledsoe was and no one will have to find how they can change their already established game to fit the offense as Patterson did. While we'll miss out on the locker room leadership and general experience of Pat, Perry, and Ramon, Coach Cal will find the right buttons to press with the right players to fill that void. My last surprise prediction for the upcoming season is about the potential production of our new foreign big man Enes Kanter. I think he'll garner attention for National Player of the Year. While a more appealing wing player like Harrison Barnes will probably wind up as the top pick in the 2011 Draft as teams hope he's the next Kobe/Durant-type franchise player, I have an inkling that Kanter will set himself up for that second slot. Just a hunch. I'll throw this link up again approximately a year from now and you can be sure to praise/clown me appropriately.

My 2010-2011 UK season prediction: a 4 loss regular season record, the third #1 seed, and a Final Four birth. Hold me to it.

... and do the John Wall.

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