2010-2011 Utah Jazz

Deron Williams is still one of the top three point guards in the league with Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur consistantly by his side, but now he has to adjust to swapping out Carlos Boozer for Al Jefferson, Ronnie Brewer for Raja Bell, and Chris Matthews for Gordon Hayward. I think D-Will is gonna be able to handle it.

2010-2011 Utah Jazz

Point Guard: Deron Williams/Ronnie Price/Earl Watson
Shooting Guard: C.J. Miles/Raja Bell/Sundiata Gaines
Small Forward: Andrei Kirilenko/Gordon Hayward/Jeremy Evans
Power Forward: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap
Center: Mehmet Okur/Francisco Elson

There's a very solid argument to be made that Al Jefferson will eclipse Carlos Boozer's impact on the floor with ease. I tend to vouch for that side of the argument. Jefferson is a monster. The point guards he's had over his career have been Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair, Marko Jaric, and Jonny Flynn. Taking in all that information ... I think AJ's in for a career year. He's mobile enough to be moderately effective in the pick-and-roll, but his main boost will simply come from Williams creating for him. With Jefferson's length, he'll be an easy target no matter where Williams is on the floor and he'll find him on target every time. This eliminates any excessive decision-making from Al's side (which is a good thing). Now he can just go in there to rebound and score. Okur's going to be giving him plenty of room to work as he'll be three miles down the road from the paint. Boozer already had a Malone-ish type build and game, but Jerry Sloan should be just as effective in finding Jefferson's best chance to put up All-Star numbers as an amazing second fiddle to his elite point guard.

Unless he's traded, it looks like Kirilenko will be back to full-time starting duties and have a more prominent role on the squad. He's never going back to most-underrated-player-in-the-game status, but he still possesses the capabilities to be one of the most feared defenders out. Assuming Raja Bell's fully recovered from his wrist injury, Bell will look to also help bring the Jazz's former elite defensive reputation back to the minds of competitors. C.J. Miles and Earl Watson are also capable of stifling any opposing wing on a given night, so I definitely see this incarnation of the Jazz being revitalized in their perimeter D.

Hopefully Mehmet Okur will be able to stay healthy for a little while after he gets back around Christmas, but Paul Millsap is absolutely (and desperately) ready to step into a full-time role regardless of Okur's status. The main value of Okur is that he forced a defensive shift that few teams can naturally adapt to with a big man on the 3-point line, but the Jazz will never be short on low post production between Millsap and Jefferson. They put the team together in a way where they really don't have that much of a falloff even though they lost three starters from free agency deflection. I do have them dropping five games off last season's win total and one seed back in the West, but that's mainly just from health concerns and the potential meteoric improvement of the Rockets and Thunder. They'll definitely be a threat come playoff time if Jefferson can fit in as great as I assume he will. Unfortunately for Utah, I got them running into the Oklahoma City juggernaut in the first round. And that means the Jazz will lose. Because the Thunder are gonna be better. Got it? Back to the drawing board if Jerry Sloan can still hold up his dry erase marker.

Prediction
Regular Season: 48-34
Playoffs: Eliminated in First Round

... and do the John Wall.

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2010-2011 Chicago Bulls

So the Bulls missed out on LeBron ... boo hoo. They'll prolly have a better team with this ridiculously balanced squad than they would have with LBJ and scraps. Shoot, they got four different high-quality ball players from the salary they would have hypothetically used on James. And you already have Derrick Rose, so I wouldn't technically want somebody to stunt his development by taking the ball out of his hands for 80% of every possession. So regardless of how much Bulls fans wanted an MJ 2.0, they'll just have to get over it and enjoy this incarnation of a contender. The miserable days of Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler are long gone ...

2010-2011 Chicago Bulls

Point Guard: Derrick Rose/C.J. Watson
Shooting Guard: Ronnie Brewer/Keith Bogans
Small Forward: Luol Deng/Kyle Korver/James Johnson
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer/Taj Gibson
Center: Joakim Noah/Kurt Thomas/Omer Asik

This team's gonna be a lockdown defensive squad with Tom Thibodeau at the helm with a full complement of defensive workhorses like C.J. Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Keith Bogans, and Joakim Noah. Plus they have some outside shooting which was completely nonexistent last season. Headlined by all-world shooter Kyle Korver, Bogans and Watson can also spot up and knock in their share of threes to go with Rose's improved range. Being mentioned in both of those categories, I really like Watson to have a moderate breakout campaign off the bench to spark the offense as a back-up to Rose (as well as paired with him in a mini-Ben Gordon-like role). That's a backcourt with a lot of explosiveness as both are sick athletes with ability to finish at the rim.

The facet of this team that's completely nuts is the fact that they added three members of last year's Utah Jazz team independently through free agency. Why didn't they just coax Jerry Sloan into coming back as the Bulls head coach again? Boozer was obviously the near-max talent who was the fallback option from acquiring James or Chris Bosh, but Korver and Brewer are equally pivotal. They should all have an essentially seamless transition to figuring out their roles on their new team because ... they'll have the same roles. Booze is the dump down post force who can step out with a ceiling-scraping midrange jumper, Brewer fills the lanes and gets the defensive assignment on the opposing team's best perimeter guy, and Korver runs off screens and spots up at every opportunity. Even better is that they have a similarly elite, big-bodied point guard in Derrick Rose to smooth the switch from Deron Williams. What do they have to get used to besides being on the winning side of the Bulls-Jazz highlight tapes now?

I also love the Kurt Thomas signing. He's been roaming at half speed for the last six years of his career and still been a presence, so what's there to lose? Joakim Noah can hold his ground on the majority of bigs in the league, but he's got Kurt behind him now who's even more of a tree trunk and able to be relied on to make the right decisions on the court in whatever playing time he's provided. So for this Bulls squad in general, you know what you're getting from the new guys. The big question mark is how and where the returning players improve and make their presence felt. Can Luol Deng go through another year of trade rumors every other night and try to stay healthy? Can Noah keep up his newly formed impact game or will he revert to an essentially unproductive scrapper? Can Rose shake off his shaky World Championship outing and continue his meteoric rise to All-Star (or potentially All-NBA) levels? The answers to those questions are gonna be what either relegates the Bulls to 4th-team status in the East or what's gonna make the Miami-Boston-Orlando triumvirate sweat come playoff time. I personally think the Bulls are gonna be absolutely great and one of the most fun teams in the league to watch, but it's still a season or two too early to throw them right in the mix with the other guaranteed NBA elite. They'll bow out to the Heat when they get unfavorably matched up with them in the second round. It's up to Derrick Rose to prove me wrong.

Prediction
Regular Season: 56-26
Playoffs: Eliminated in Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

... and do the John Wall.

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Patterson Expectations

Patrick Patterson - 6'9", 235 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
33 minutes, 14.3 points (57.5% FG, 34.8% 3PT, 69.2% FT), 7.4 rebounds, .9 assists, 1.3 blocks, .7 steals, 1.1 TOs

The University of Kentucky's modern day Paul Bunyan figure is now an NBA rookie. He was one of the very, very, very few bright spots shining through the catastrophic Billy G blip of an era. He was the guy who embodied every aspect of any local hero you could ever wish for. He was UK. Now he's a Rocket.

The big issue in looking at Pat's production from last season is the Demarcus Cousins effect. In his 2009 sophomore season, pre-Boogie, Pat put up 18/9/2 with 2 blocks and shot over 60% from the field. That drop in production would be a death toll for any other NBA prospect, but with his added skill of 3-point shooting and the scouts' understanding of his deference all last season to UK's incoming talent, Pat universally rose on everyone's draft boards. It was a crazy gutsy move for him, knowing that the team was in transition and he would have to sacrifice individual production on a monumental level. But he did it anyway, lived with the sacrifice, and was better off (playing-wise and monetarily) because of it. Win-win.

All that being said and as hard as it is for me to admit, I don't think P-Patt has a very good chance at an All-Star level career. Because of that, I see his ceiling as a Horace Grant-type 3rd option player. Grant did sneak in an All-Star appearance in '94 while MJ was busy watching a few baseball games, but he was more noted for his defensive work and tenure, logging over 30 minutes per game in 13 of his 17 NBA seasons. Horace has a little bit of height over Patrick and better natural defensive instincts so far, but Pat already has more consistency in his jumper and far better range. One thing that has to be a major focus for Patterson is developing his passing ability, which was completely nonexistent at UK, if he has any hopes of being as productive as Grant. He won't be seeing many dump-down, clear out situations in the pros due to his lack of size, but being a high energy guy on the boards will go a long way in him defining his game and surprising a lot of people with his insane level of strength and fitness.

Horace Grant - 6'10", 215 lb.
1993-1994 with Chicago Bulls
36.7 minutes, 15.1 points (52.4% FG, 59.6% FT), 11 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.6 TOs

In the same way I don't think P-Patt has as high of a ceiling as the other 2010 UK rookies at the pro level, he also has a shorter drop as to what his worst case scenario is. The most frequent modern day comparison used for Patrick is current undersized Jazz forward Paul Millsap; and it's highly warranted. Millsap is a workhorse who runs the fast break well, has an adequate mid-range shot, and destroys his oversized competition on the board, all these being things that Patrick's already got on lock and ready to contribute at the pro level. Yet he's probably going to be a career back-up unless he gets on another squad purged of all front court size. He spent all of his first four seasons as Carlos Boozer's bench relief and is set to play the same role in Al Jefferson's shadow for the foreseeable future. The highlight of Millsap's early career was taking advantage of Booze's injury-prone nature in the '09 season where he had 38 starting opportunities. He put up a string of 19 consecutive double-doubles in Boozer's absence, showing off his capability as an NBA starter. But Millsap was relegated once again to mop-up duty once he returned.

Paul Millsap - 6'8", 245 lb.
2008-2009 with Utah Jazz
30.1 minutes, 13.5 points (53.4% FG, 69.9% FT), 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 1.7 TOs

I'm personally rooting for the Rockets to win the Carmelo sweepstakes and trade away half their big men for him. Unless Patrick's able to pull the ability to handle the ball out of a magic hat in the next month, he's stuck as an undersized power forward or super-undersized center in the most dire of instances. With that niched position in mind, it sucks that the Rockets currently employ Yao Ming, Brad Miller, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and Jordan Hill all fighting for those 96 big men minutes between them. The only guy Patrick's probably ahead of on the depth chart is Hill. Plus you gotta figure that Yao and Scola get at least 65 of those available minutes between them. Not good for a rookie. So unless something big changes, we may not see a lot of P-Patt in the early going. But he's too solid to not break his way into someone's rotation and be an impact player at some point. Big Blue nation will be right behind him for the entire journey. He's our guy.

... and do the John Wall.

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King Pippen

The LeBron sweepstakes is over. Cool. Now all the talking heads get to scrutinize it and discuss every potential scenario under the sun simply to fill up time until the season starts in almost four months. One of the prevailing opinions I've noticed is the idea that, by choosing to pair with Dwyane Wade, LBJ has set his career ceiling at the level of Scottie Pippen. I want to formally second (or third or 2,748th) that notion.

Look at these stats: 22 PPG, 9 RPG, 6 APG. Add in 3 steals and a block. Further consider .491 FG%, .320 3P%, and .660 FT%. I wanna revisit this post at the end of the season and see if LeBron's numbers don't look eerily close to that statistical output. This line is Scottie Pippen's in the '93-'94 season during MJ's first retirement fling when the Chicago Bulls were 100% Scottie's team. While this is obviously a different scenario as Scottie's role in '93 was going in the exact opposite direction of LBJ's in '10.

LeBron's 2010 output was 30/7/9/2/1 with .503/.333/.767 percentages. Appreciate that stat line because I cannot fathom it feasibly being recreated with his new team.

Pippen proved in 1994 that he was an all-world talent regardless of His Airness, leading the Bulls to 55 wins and a Game 7 loss in the second round to the eventual Finals representatives, the Patrick Ewing-led NY Knicks. In the regular season, that was only two losses less than the previous year. But, nonetheless, Pippen couldn't seal the deal in his opportunity without MJ. It just didn't happen. That's been the story of LeBron's seven years in Cleveland. No matter who management brought in, it simply didn't pan out into a legitimate championship contender. Big Z was the constant, but then there was the rotating door of Booze, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Andy Varejao, Big Ben, Shaq, and Antawn Jamison in the post with him. Plus there was the uncertainty of Jeff McGinnis, Eric Snow, Damon Jones, Larry Hughes, Delonte West, and Mo Williams each shakily manning the lead guard position. Regardless of who was put with him, The King couldn't manage to become the man in the playoffs to overcome the field. He finished out of the playoffs, out of the playoffs, out in the Eastern Semis, swept in the Finals, out in the Eastern Semis, out in the Eastern Finals, and out in the Eastern Semis. He simply couldn't get over the hump while the likes of the Pistons squad, Tim Duncan (2x), Dwyane Wade, the Celtics trio, and Kobe Bryant (2x) all climbed to the pinnacle of NBA success during his career. LeBron got all of the attention year in and year out, but his assumed majestic acclimation to championship dominance has yet to surface in any way, shape, or form. He has yet to become the ultimate alpha dog, so this summer he chose to join an already proven one.

Dwyane Wade (not Kobe, not Durant, not James, not anyone) plays the most like Michael Jordan that anyone ever has. The ease with which he squeezes his way to the hoop, the deftness of his midrange jumper, the super-quick defensive instincts, the unreliable streakiness of his 3-point shot, the ability to force the action and create legitimate fear in his opponents ... it's all there. So make no questions about it, this team will be Dwyane Wade's team. This is the guy who made the postseason as a rookie only to take and hit the game winning shot in his debut playoff performance. This is the guy who relegated a still-dominant Shaq to the passenger's seat in only his sophomore NBA campaign. This is the guy who lead his misfit band of former all-stars to the NBA Finals in his third season and managed to pull out a scoring average of 34.7 points to resurrect his squad from a 0-2 deficit and capture a title. Those are the kind of things LeBron James was supposed to do, but the guy who spent three years perfecting his basketball intuition at Marquette beat him to it. The Heat will always be Dwyane Wade's team, no matter who else dons the jersey with him. That's just the nature of his Jordan-esque mentality and approach to the game.

So while LeBron's perhaps the single most skilled talent the game has ever seen, by joining D-Wade on his home turf, he signed up for being on Scottie Pippen duty. His numbers will significantly dip, but his undeniable talent-level will still allow him to shine on an innately dominant level, much in the way Pippen was a given for the NBA's Top 50 Players of All-Time. Unless Wade makes the conscious decision to significantly defer to LBJ, it will be obvious that Dwyane is the absolute number one option. He's not a finisher, he's a creator. His career dominance has been built upon isolation plays. Wade needs the ball in his hands to dissect the first line of defense from the triple-threat position. He needs the ball in his hands to create space for his patented step-back jumper from 20-feet and in. He needs the ball in his hands to probe the paint for a lane to create mayhem right at the rim. And while Wade is still a genuinely unselfish player who will sacrifice for the good of the team, he knows that his effectiveness comes strictly in the form of having the ball and attacking to establish himself and instill fear in his defenders. You won't see him roaming around off-ball screens (a la Rip Hamilton) or being content to spotting up in the corner for 3 (a la Ray Allen) on consecutive possessions. That's the main reason LeBron's personal shattering of statistical averages will be squelched; his usage rate will simply be lowered. Significantly.

And I went through that whole run down without even mentioning Chris Bosh. I don't know what Bosh's personal thoughts on his role currently are, but I see him becoming the forgotten man. I don't see where he even gets utilized with how the team is constituted. He's converged into glorified role player territory. So, yeah ... my main point is that LeBron has put a limit on his desire for personal dominance. We will not be looking on this Heat team down the road and talking about how the King led them to success in the same way that Duncan and KB24 are recognized. Miami has put together a contender with a legitimate 8-year window of dominance if they keep the team together, but LeBron has virtually eliminated himself from the upper echelon of individual greats. He's out of MJ territory. He's out of Kobe territory. He's out of Magic and Bird territory. He's now, until proven otherwise, in the discussion that caps off with Dr. J, Clyde Drexler, Kevin McHale, and Scottie Pippen; otherworldly, game-changing talents who will be talked about forever, but who were never able to single-handedly will their way into the elite circle of quintessential all-time winners. Just really cool sidekicks.

... and do the John Wall.

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Where He Belongs

Thank God the Lamar Odom situation got resolved. Both parties legitimately needed each other to keep the NBA world balanced. While the Lake Show could have made a minor tweak trade to try and replace LO if he decided to go elsewhere, there's pretty much no one who would have had a similar impact simply do to Odom being a four-year vet of the triangle offense and five-year vet of playing off of Kobe Bryant. That can't be highlighted enough. Playing with certain players is an art, and choosing to stay with the champs is a very enlightening move in showing that Lamar is one of those malleable players who can willingly fit with Kobe.

Artest, in my mind, is a beautiful addition to this roster and will pick up right where Ariza left off. While I loved the role our former wing played with his hustle, hard cuts, opportune 3 balls, and team orientation, I sincerely believe that Ron Ron can provide all of that along with a better jumper, a throw-in post game, and more intimidating all-around defensive presence. The only thing I think we lose is some speed on the wing and a defender who can stick to those pesky super-quick guards. But Ron is much better suited to clamp down on those equally troublesome and usually dominant small forwards with the all-around floor game like Carmelo Anthony, LeBron, Paul Pierce, and Tracy McGrady (if he's still alive). This naturally relegates Kobe to preferably defending the second offensive option, an assignment which promotes an even stronger presence on both ends of the floor by him. So it's win-win.

Strictly on Lamar's side of negotiations, though, I actually do think he could have outrageously thrived somewhere else. Unless there was another trade to compliment LO's signing (like the Boozer rumors), then I didn't really see Miami going anywhere to far. They would have been crazy fun to watch because Wade & him had a naturally chemistry in Wade's rookie season and they would have easily picked right back up five seasons later. But that team has so many holes in it at up to 3 different positions, so forget about them in the now nonexistent theoretical big picture. But who I really would have (begrudgingly) enjoyed watching him play for was the Trailblazers. Can you imagine a lineup of Andre Miller/Brandon Roy/Lamar Odom/Lamarcus Aldridge/Greg Oden? That's beastly. Then in turn they would have one of the upper tier benches in the entire league. That would have instantly propelled them up to the top of the Western Conference in a dead heat with the Lakers and newly molded Spurs & Mavericks.

But, again, it's not happening. So while I'll detail some other teams in later posts, the Lakers are where it's at this season. Lamar Odom decided to stay put and the championship trophy will decide the same next June. Our single casualty this offseason (unless and unexpected trade comes along) is Ariza. But with management re-upping every other player on the entire championship roster and adding the one character who will force the team from ever becoming complacent ... we have a dynasty on our hands. Thanks, Lamar. And I made this entire post without a retarded candy reference. I swear, I will strangle the next ESPN reporter or random person who thinks they're informed and tells a Skittles joke while talking about dude and giggles to themselves at their attempted hilarity. You're not clever and it wasn't a good joke anyway.

Great quote by Odom: "Riding off Kobe’s coattail ain’t bad. He’s got something special going around. I’ve got to be around. I’ve got to be one of the apostles. There was no way I was going to pass up playing with Kobe, Pau, Andrew and Ron-Ron."

... but do take my word for it.

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