2010-2011 Dallas Mavericks

So they added Tyson Chandler and ... that's it. I just have an inkling that Mark Cuban blows this squad up '04-style sometime before the trade deadline. And it's absolutely crazy because this roster has two Hall of Famers, two additional All-Stars, and then even four other guys who could start on the majority of teams in the league. Along with the Lakers and Celtics, the Mavericks have talent oozing at least two deep from every single position. How did they get bounced in the first round last year again?

2010-2011 Dallas Mavericks

Point Guard: Jason Kidd/Rodrigue Beaubois/J.J. Barea
Shooting Guard: Caron Butler/Jason Terry/Dominique Jones
Small Forward: Shawn Marion/DeShawn Stevenson
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki/Alexis Ajinca/Brian Cardinal
Center: Brendan Haywood/Tyson Chandler/Ian Mahinmi

90% of the Mavericks every single year is how much Dirk has left to contribute. The guy's an MVP (even though it should have been Kobe's first) and one of the most deadly efficient mass jump shooters ever. But now he's 12 years into his NBA career at 32 years old with mass extra mileage from pro teenage years in Germany and all the World Championships/Olympics he's participated in over that span. The good thing shown on his career stat sheet is that the only drop-off in production has been his rebounding slightly decreasing for five straight seasons now. He's the most awkwardly talented 7-footer ever and has been remarkably healthy, missing a whopping average of a 2.7 games per season. Defense has never been his calling, so the only thing that could hurt his game with age is if he can't get his lanky frame up and down the court for extended periods of time. His jumper will always be there and he'll always be able to get it off. And while it may seem like a great thing that he has so much firepower around him to help nowadays, it's been increasingly clear that no matter who's around him, the fate of the Mavericks is always defined by Dirk. It was Dirk who missed all five of his overtime shots in the deciding game against the Suns in 2005. It was Dirk who was singled out for losing his confidence after Dwyane Wade began his 2006 Finals onslaught to come back after a 2-0 Mavericks lead. It was Dirk who couldn't averaged under 20 points on 38% shooting against the Warriors in the first round loss of his 2007 MVP season. So ... if he doesn't have an interstellar campaign, the Mavs find a way to lose. It's that simple.

Jason Kidd is still sick. He may never take a shot besides spot-up 3s anymore, but the guy averaged 9.1 assists with a 3.71 assist-to-turnover ratio. He runs the team perfectly. Jason Terry is in the upper echelon of the sickest scorers ever to be constantly withheld on the bench, averaging 19.6 just two years ago, even though he's regularly timid in crunch time. Caron Butler and Shawn Marion are two swiss-army wings who can each slide in wherever necessary. Look for them to be much more efficient and comfortable with a year of continuity under their belt (unless everyone gets traded like I previously mentioned). In all honesty, they should never leave a possession without a made bucket between Kidd's passing, Dirk's shooting, Terry and Caron's general bucket-making ability, and Marion hustle.

At the center position, Haywood and Chandler make a very intriguing combo. Both are high profile shot blockers, but Haywood's more proficient at creating his own occasional offensive opportunities while Chandler's specialty is finishing lobs and outreaching his competition for every rebound. Health has been a plaguing issue recently for both guys, but together they should be 48 minutes worth of quality center play. That's something Erick Dampier definitely didn't give them.

So why do I think they actually do worse in the regular season this year and repeat their first round blunder? Because the Mavericks are prime time underachievers. Since 2001, they've lost in the Semis, Semis, West Finals, first round, Semis, NBA Finals, first round, first round, Semis, and first round. All of those seasons they won at least 50 games, six of those at least 55, and three at a clip of 60 or more culminating in the monstrous 67-15 season where they had the best record in the league. In my little glass ball, I see a lot of injuries in their short term future and a general sense of malcontentedness. Marion's been a baby his entire career and he's not gonna enjoy losing minutes in favor of Butler when certain line-up adjustments are going to be made. Rodrigue Beaubois is as intriguing a young point guard prospect as their is the NBA, but Rick Carlisle inexplicably gave the kid no minutes once the playoffs came around until the elimination game, which he responded to by putting up 16/5/1 in 21 minutes. Carlisle can't make that mistake again. But in that same sentence, how do you still keep Jason Terry's minutes high enough to take advantage of his offensive production when you also gotta keep your resident Hall-of-Famer Jason Kidd (who chose to finish out his career in Dallas instead of signing elsewhere) happy running the squad? I don't know. This team literally has too much talent. But, unlike the players that make up the exceedingly deep Lakers and Celtics squad, this isn't the personnel who's going to be content with compromising roles. That's why I have them on the brink of a highly entertaining implosion and first round exit. Sorry, Dirk. Should've made Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson go with you to Chicago.

Prediction
Regular Season: 51-31
Playoffs: Eliminated in first round

... and Free Enes.

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Surprise Team

So I just thought I'd dedicate a few minutes to talking about a surprise NBA squad that I like going into next season. They are one of last year's punchline teams: the Wizards. And I think they'll possibly challenge the Magic/Celtics/Cavs.

Don't look at me crazy. I know they won a beyond paltry 19 games last year. And I know that's crazily nice enough to tie them for second worst in the league. And I also know that they only completed a single trade this offseason and don't even have an impact rookie coming in. But I still like them to surpassingly crush all expectations even though this is a season where I fully expect twelve of the fifteen Eastern Conference squads to compete for those eight playoff spots. Just for the record, I think the Knicks, Pacers, and Nets are those three unlucky teams who are consistent enough to maintain as the East's resident bottom feeders. But on to the Wiz.

Before even discussing their one monster trade, the Wizards simply improve exponentially from last season's nonexistence because of the health of both Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood. These men aren't going to be recovering while coming into training camp, either, because both came around fully right at the end of 2009's regular season. The team's starting point guard and center both had full and complete summers for rehabilitation and contact training. So even more than anyone who's been healthy, they should specifically come into the season in peak condition after not being on their feet most of last year.

And while Haywood is deftly important to this team's interior defense and gives them a (pretend) post scorer to distract some from the perimeter, Arenas is the pivotal cog that will reemerge and bring the Wiz into the upper echelon of East threats. Gilbert has been away from us for so long that all NBA fans have already started to forget or underestimate his floor impact. This man stands right behind Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony in the ranks of pure scorers in the league. He may seem to go games at a time where he shoots unconsciously and detrimentally to the team, but that reputation was gained more out of necessity and lack of team structure than out of pure ballhoggedness. Under Flip Saunders and with a full compliment of offensive weapons, Arenas will show amazing efficiency on the offensive end. Just trust me. And this same principle applies likewise to Antawn Jamison. Last year's team was purposeless on both sides of the floor. The club was marred with injuries and was infusing too many inexperienced pieces with a pitfall of uncertainty. With Arenas back at full capacity and some definitive upgrades at two key positions, this incarnation of the Wizards will show up on a nightly basis and perform.

And now the trade. For three less-than-proficiently talented forwards and the fifth pick in the draft, the Wizards acquired Mike Miller and Randy Foye from Minnesota. And though both players were rather nondescript last season, their skill sets will be highlighted on this team. Miller is instantly infused into the starting lineup and paired with Caron Butler to provide two big and strong wings which will dually cause problems for defenses. On the obvious front, Miller positively replaces a great deal of the 3-point attempts that Deshawn Stevenson, Mike James, Butler, and Jamison have been chucking the last few seasons. He'll knock them in at more opportune times and at a better clip. This also allows the free roaming of Butler and Jamison to become even more of a threat than it already was. You have to cover both of those forwards on the perimeter anyway, but now you have to even tighter and with more urgency since the ball could get dropped off or swung over to Miller at any point. And while he's not a premier defender by any means, his size gives a more versatile look on the defensive end of things when alternating between all the wing D schemes. Foye, on the other hand, provides a greatly talented scoring combo guard to be the first man off the bench for either Arenas or for the position shuffling of any combination of Miller/Butler/Jamison. In his short time at Minnesota, he became a more than adequate floor leader who can pick his spots to be a distributor or prime time scorer. In all honesty, he's a poor man's Gilbert Arenas. Funny how that happens. With Foye in the fold, the points will never drop off between the starting lineup and the bench. The Wizards with these two new players now have five guys who could realistically score 20+ points on any given night.

Once you add the peripheral players in, this team can exceedingly flourish when given the right direction. Nick Young is a big guard with as pure a stroke as you'll find in someone with so much untapped potential. Andray Blatche is a stylized big man of the future with every conceivable skill on the floor who simply needs to tame his shot selection to understand how versatile he can be in literally any system. Javaris Crittenton is a pure point guard, as well as a former Laker, who I fully believe can still develop into an absolute stud whether it's with the Wizards or a future team. Newly signed Fabricio Oberto is one of those veteran big men who, while not a big stat contributor, provides a calming influence and never provides anything negative while on the floor.

So all in all, I would be willing to throw some money on the Wizards being a big time crew next year with an epic bounce back performance. I like what both the Celtics and Magic did to improve their rosters, but I wanted to acknowledge the team that seemingly no one has on their radar right now. I witnessed the game live three years back when Gilbert Arenas laced up the Lakers for 60 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and a win while Butler and Jamison dropped an extra 27 and 25 respectively as well without missing a beat. It was a thing of beauty in the face of my own beloved Lake Show. And I'm not counting on that ever happening again, but I'm counting on everyone being able to score as much as they want and for Arenas to settle back in as a complete threat and floor leader for this overly talented team that will surprise you.

... but do take my word for it.

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Part Eight: Stagnant Additions

And I can’t lie; we actually flipped some nice pieces. After jumping ship on the expired Clippers, we signed our first kinda high profile free agent in Vladimir Radmanovic. The last couple of seasons he’d been lighting it up, albeit purposelessly, in Seattle before being traded as an expiring contract. But we booked him on a full midlevel exception contract (over $5 million a season), even though we had an all-too-similar player at the same position in Brian Cook. Oh well. Then we got the uber-athletic wingman Maurice Evans for a second round pick which was used on one of those 7-foot, 180 pound prospects from like Malaysia or Zimbabwe who is never heard from or mispronounced ever again. While those were at least psyche updates for the fans as we were desperate for any kind of visible on-court difference makers, the city of Los Angeles got a hometown boost in the form of drafting the diminutive and ethnically confusing (plus super-eared) UCLA legend Jordan Farmar. While tons of teams passed him off with little regard, the Lakers saw in him an underrated athlete who could play at the right pace for a triangle offense team with an improving jump shot. Moreover, he was a born winner who nearly led the Bruins back to another championship even though the shadow of John Wooden has left them irrelevant to the rest of the basketball world since the ‘70s. Sorry L.A., I’m a diehard Laker fan but the lures of the city aren’t even a fraction of what it would it would take for me to avert my gaze away from the innately better Kentucky Wildcats. That’s just not happening. No dice.

A sucky, yet somewhat convincing, plea had erupted out of the Laker faithful after the unfortunate loss to the Suns this past offseason. People retroactively were disgruntled that Caron Butler was well on his way to becoming a perennial All-Star contender while we were stuck with “Butterfingers” Brown (the least profane nickname I could think of) and the seemingly inconsistent and underachieving Lamar Odom. Everyone appreciated LO’s insane skill set, but it was almost unbelievable that he’d never accomplished a single All-Star bid. It downright pissed some people off. Lamar could literally do anything on the basketball court (besides hit his free throws). His handles were something of legend, probably better than any player ever given a 6’ 10” body frame to work with. He was the most willing and deftest passer of any forward the league had seen since Chris Webber in his prime. His three-pointing shooting (even if only to me) had become a statistical victory cigar as a hit from long range was darn near a guarantee on a “W”. He had even become the most underrated dominant rebounder in the game. Even if it were simply out of necessity because of the lack of any other frontcourt presence, Lamar would regularly record rebounding stretches of 16 to 19 boards a game. He could lead a fast break, he could take nearly any defender off the dribble, he was deceptively strong, he was beyond agile, he was no longer a troublesome locker room presence, and people genuinely liked him. Yet somehow he managed to attain such a level of inconsistency and passiveness that he had no individual accolades to show for it and people were willing to trade him.

The common names that came up in trade discussions were the then hot-commodities Peja Stojakovic and Ron Artest. Dreams of Kobe drawing countless defenders and kicking it out to Peja every other possession for an always-swishing three ball ruled fan’s fantasies. Just as soon as the doomed 2004 season, Peja was in the MVP discussion due to his visually dominating floor game, something Lamar was never envisioned to fill out and attain. And then there was the case of Ron Ron. The regularly crowned Defensive Player of the year was cementing his reputation as an uncontrollable head case just coming off of his season-long suspension for inciting and street fighting in the brawl at the Palace. But basketball fans have short memories and are very forgiving when it comes to adding potential assets to their team. Dreams were equally filled with visions of Kobe & Ron creating the strongest defensive presence on the wing since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen or even the tandem of Dennis Rodman and Joe Dumars when they were called on to frustrate the opposition beyond recognition. Even an alternate trading candidate was mentioned in Andrei Kirilenko, but the equally versatile Utah swingman was held in such high regard at the time that it was seen as impossible to ever pry him from the Jazz’s fingers. In the end, even though rumors were never quelled and new scenarios were concocted on the regular, the Lakers wound up sticking with Kobe’s current sidekick. No one knows if it was because of the front office’s never-ending faith in the curious forward or if trade partners never accepted a deal or even if there was a super secret snag in ongoing negotiations, but regardless, Lamar was retained. Stojakovich and Artest were indeed later traded (for each other, in fact) and subsequently left both of their respective new teams after free agency once dealt anyways, so the respective pairings are forever to be relegated to “what ifs” and dream scenarios. [Insert from the future: *wink wink*]

[to be continued]

... but do take my word for it.

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Part Six: Move That Bus

We parted with one of our rising studs in Caron Butler to get … wait for it … wait for it … … … Kwame Brown. Laker supporters now had to defend the likes of Kuh-wah-me Brown. Maybe the most legitimate bust of a #1 pick in National Basketball Association history. And yet while he was a beloved Laker, I took the intiative to twist his inadequacies a lil’ bit. Yes, I’m guilty of it. His lack of mobility became his superb defensive fortitude and immovability! His refusal to offensively assert himself became his team-oriented selflessness! His ineptitude to develop any sense of purpose on the basketball court became his still untapped potential! His cement bricks for hands became his … no, those were the exact same. Those (purple & gold) rose-colored glasses that I refused to replace with normal contacts led me to root for, again, Kuh-wah-me Brown. I still can’t believe it myself.

But you know why I thought the team could work? The Lakers restarted their seemingly impossible re-rebuilding phase by bringing back the igniter that had never failed over an extended period of time. Ever. Phil Jackson. Freshly rested from his Kobe-snitching “The Last Season” book tour, our resident Zen Master decided that the bad blood really wasn’t that bad. If he brought this team of Chex Mix-like pieces together, then that would really be something. Could title aspirations come out of an utter failure of a season just because P-Jax was back at the helm? We would see.

The very first game of that season was so exciting that no one could be blamed for having hope. Future aspirations were heaped on rookie center Andrew Bynum, though everyone new Phil disregarded most rookies. Our newly signed (strictly because no one else wanted him) point guard Smush Parker would start his season-opening string of 20-point games that had everyone tagging him as an epic find and out-of-nowhere potential playmaking star. It seemed that way at first. Shut up. The specific excitement came in the form of an overtime game-winning possession against the Denver Nuggets. I guess Phil thought he would make an immediate legend of Kwame, because he designed the play for him. And it looked pretty good actually. The guy made a strong (albeit terrified) move to the basket for a lay-up. Which he botched, of course. But the ball got immediately tapped out and found its way into Kobe’s hands, and he in turn mopped up the mess by hitting a highly contested straight on go-ahead jumper from 22 feet. Let the ascension begin.

But it didn’t quite begin. Yes, this was a season of legend by the (soon to be former) #8 that will probably never be individually replicated, but the team didn’t live up to lofty bounce-back expectations. This was the stretch of Bryant’s career where he created a whole other standard of scoring expertise. Comparisons were blown out the window. The once-arguable matchup of offensive savvy between Tracy McGrady and Kobe Bryant was no longer relevant. In a near unbelievable first three quarters of a game against the Dallas Mavericks, Kobe outscored the entire opposing squad at a clip of KB: 62, Mavs: 61. He then proceeded to kick back the entire fourth quarter and never reenter the game, which led to harsh criticism of him depraving the public of an all-time historical performance. Just weeks later, as if a direct answer to the critics, Kobe came out firing again against the Toronto Raptors. When it was all said and done, every defender in the arena that night had Kobe imprinted on their foreheads to the tune of 81 points. Like … that’s … e-i-g-h-t-y o-n-e. Even further disregarding all semblance of logic, he went on a tear of four consecutive games with over 45 points scored. It became a day-to-day display of excellence for Kobe, finishing the season, unbelievably, with a scoring clip of 35.4 points per game. But somehow … somehow … we weren’t able to distinguish ourselves from the rest of the pack in the Western Conference. It seemed that the rest of the team sometimes sat almost in reverence to Bryant’s individual accolades, never quite coming together cohesively in any way, shape, or form. Only on the strength of Jackson’s pedigree and Kobe’s single-handed brilliance, we reached the playoffs as the 7th seed.

Which meant we met up with the MVP-having Phoenix Suns in the first round. That was during Steve Nash’s two-year reign of making a mockery out of the award-selecting panel. I still have a disgusting taste in my mouth from it. But you know what happened? Game 4 happened. The Lakers made all the adjustments to expose the Suns as fastbreaking phonies. We force fed Kwame and Lamar the ball down low to punish the undersized punks and overachieved our way towards perfectly setting up the commercial-ready moment where in overtime, a jump ball with 6 seconds left on the clock was recovered by Kobe at half court. He took the scene in slowly off the dribble at a diagonal, reaching the opposite wing in an exact amount of calculated steps. Everyone knew the ball would be his and his only. Every opposing player in the vicinity fell upon his shooting elbow. But Kobe, encompassing every facet of perfectionist determination, lifted into the air and gently released the orange roundie to meet its due company in the form of flipping nylon. With that buzzer-beater, the Lakers took a 3-1 series lead. We were on the verge of overthrowing the (*airquotes*) MVP and every playoff choker he called a teammate.

[to be continued]

... but do take my word for it.

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Part Five: Destructive Tendencies

We lost. Our beautiful orchestra of motivated last-chancers dissipated. The Laker Empire would slowly and destructively crumble over the coming months. Kobe was an unrestricted free agent that summer and wouldn’t even publicly acknowledge whether he would recommit with the organization who had housed him since his days at Lower Marion High School. Shaq demanded a trade (to a team in warm climate city, no less) away from the Bryant, whom he claimed was a terrible teammate, and even sold his L.A. home weeks before an accommodation with the Miami Heat was even made. Our supposed-to-be savior Derek Fisher signed away with the lowly Golden State Warriors for more money than the Lakers’ front office was willing to commit to the role-playing point guard. Gary Payton was shipped for spare parts to the gutter-dwelling Beantown Celtics. Phil Jackson was at an odds with management and just kind of went away to zen however much he wanted to away from professional basketball, with an all-revealing book rumored to be coming soon after. Malone’s knee required extensive offseason work and while he entertained the possibility of coming back with the Spurs, Wolves, or Lake Show, he wound up riding off into the Louisiana sunset of post-basketball life. And while Kobe did wind up re-upping after a flirting period with the Bulls and (*deep breath*) Clippers, darn near no one was recognizably left. The team was in tatters.

The inaugural season of my fandom was supposed to be perfect. The Lakers were supposed to ride the coattails of my support to a championship, cementing my personal revenge of 53-foot tall Michael Jordan for attaining so many while I was too young to object to it. But the season wasn’t perfect. Karl didn’t get the championship to cap off his beyond-extraordinary career. The Mailman moved on and I had to stick with the Lakers to start this climb back up from the gutter. Now while I had my hopes for a roster now consisting of the likes of the lanky (and interestingly enough, my second favorite player from the previous season) Lamar Odom, the Swiss army knife Caron Butler, the aged and dreadlocked rebounder Brian Grant, jellybean-sized shooter Chucky Atkins, and the nearly dead chain-smoking Vlade Divac, the ’05 season was something that had me wishing for a temporary case of Alzheimer’s.

We started it all right enough, simply living up to extensively lowered expectations. We had replaced Phil with a similarly larger-than-life coach in Rudy Tomjanovich, but because of health issues and the pressures that are a package deal with being the Lakers coach, he barely lasted past the Christmas meeting with the now rivaling Heat, and the indignantly bitter Shaq, before re-retiring. All in all, we fell apart midseason due to a never-ending string of injuries and overall lack of talent, missing the playoffs altogether. That was a first (and odds-on, only) for Kobe in his career. Drastic measures needed to be implemented. And then a trade went down that would change all of our lives drastically.

[to be continued]

... but do take my word for it.

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