One-and-Done Effect on Calipari's Teams

#1 pick, a coach, #1 pick

You probably think the one-and-done thing is a really big deal that is possibly responsible for destroying college basketball.

It's not. But for this post I'll just focus on the slick-haired Italian not named Pitino who's the lightning rod for all things one-and-done.

John Calipari - Memphis (4), Kentucky (4)
(2002, #6 pick) Dajuan Wagner
(2006, #17 pick) Shawne Williams
(2008, #1 pick) Derrick Rose
(2009, #4 pick) Tyreke Evans
(2010, #1/5/18/30 picks) John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Daniel Orton

So Coach Cal is the evil face of this system, right? He's runs an NBA farming squad that fast forwards guys right into the pros, right? Or maybe his first year at Kentucky was simply an outlier. An anomaly. A crazy happenstance. Calipari coached nine seasons in Memphis and churned out an enormous quantity of ... four freshmen NBAers. He also happened to send one early-entry sophomore and one early-entry junior, Darius Washington and Chris Douglas-Roberts, to the professional ranks. How many pros do you think he had spend a full four seasons in college? None or maybe a single random guy, right? This one-and-done recruiter can't have possibly developed players over the extent of their college careers and put them into a positive position maybe even beyond their natural capabilities, right? Five Memphis seniors under Cal have played in the NBA. Robert Dozier, Joey Dorsey, Rodney Carney, Antonio Burks, and Earl Barron.

And what about Cal's success in post-1&Done seasons? Surely if players leaving too early is such a monumental problem then it would create a noticeable correlation to the following season's detriment. Memphis went from 27-9 NIT Champions with Dajuan Wagner to 23-7 making the NCAA Tournament in 2003. They went from the 33-4 Elite 8 with Shawne Williams to the 33-4 Elite 8 in 2007. They dropped from 38-2 losing the championship game with Derrick Rose to dropping 33-4 in the Sweet 16 in 2009. Calipari left Memphis after Tyreke Evans' single season to start over at UK, remolding a team that went straight to the Elite 8 in 2010.

Then there was the 2011 mass exodus. But I've already covered that enough.

So Calipari hasn't won a championship. If that's your end-all-be-all argument, then you win. If all of Derrick Rose, John Wall, and Demarcus Cousins came back for multiple follow-up seasons, then yes, Calipari probably would've claimed a title by now. But then again, maybe not since proceeding recruits might've looked elsewhere for more prevalent playing time. Then there are always freak injuries, chemistry problems, and situational transfers ... so ... there's no guarantee either way. Calipari has milked pretty much every ounce of blood, sweat, and tears out of his roster every year. I honestly think the only underachievement you can mark him for is his first Kentucky squad not at least making a Final Four. But even with that, you're talking about a team with a brand new coach who's starting three freshmen with a single returning contributor from the previous season. So it's strictly off talent and will that they were a favorite at all.

Bottom-line: There have been two seasons where a one-and-done departure has seriously affected a John Calipari team. 2009 without Derrick Rose and 2011 without Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, and Orton.

The 2008-2009 Memphis starting five could have hypothetically been Derrick Rose/Tyreke Evans/Antonio Anderson/Robert Dozier/Shawn Taggart ... but is that even a guaranteed championship contender in a year with Hansbrough's Tar Heels stomping the field? The 2010-2011 team would've hypothetically been an all-time juggernaut if any two of the four departures would've stayed ... but then you don't know who stays healthy or if Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones wind up here at all. And we made the Final Four as constituted. Sooo ...

Calipari's career in summary
19 years coaching [8 at UMASS, 9 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
509-152 (77%) record [193-71 (73%) at UMASS, 252-69 (79%) at Memphis, 64-12 (84%) at UK]
13 NCAA Tournaments [5 at UMASS, 6 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
9 Sweet Sixteens [3 at UMASS, 4 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
7 Elite Eights [2 at UMASS, 3 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
3 Final Fours [1 at UMASS, 1 at Memphis, 1 at UK]
1 Championship Game loss [Memphis]

... and Free Enes.

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Opening 5 Games for UK NBA Guys

Maybe I'll make this a recurring thing too, but here's a post on all 10 of our current Wildcats in the NBA at the start of the season.

Eric Bledsoe - Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, and Randy Foye took up all but 39 seconds of the guard rotation in the Clippers debut. But Bledsoe showed up in a nice suit, so what's it really matter? He missed his only attempted 3 in those 39 seconds, but that's it. He increased it to 16 legitimate minutes by the third game and is trying to figure out what to do with his small windows of floor time. His big early season break came in the form of Baron Davis and Randy Foye both coming up lame with injuries for the fourth game of the season. Being the only other lead guard on the roster, Bledsoe got the starting spot and a monstrous 40 minutes of playing time. He was aggressive early and often, dazzling the Clipper crowd with his fearlessness and sense of purpose on the floor. The second half caught up to him a little bit, though. Moving into the next game against the Thunder, he outplayed his own 9/5/3/4/2 line against the Spurs to go for 17/4/8 plus 2 more blocks while notching 2 threes with great shooting from the floor. Eric's made a complete turnaround from the preseason already and this production bodes perfectly for his career that some (including me) were projecting shakily around draft time. We'll see if Vinny Del Negro has that same kind of trust in him when the full rotation's healthy moving on.

L vs. Blazers: 1 minute, 0 points (0-1 FGs, 0-1 3PT)
L @ Warriors: 5 minutes, 1 points (0-1 FGs, 1-2 FTs), 1 assist
L vs. Mavericks: 16 minutes, 6 points (3-5 FGs, 0-1 3PT), 3 rebounds, 2 assist, 1 steal, 4 TOs, 3 fouls
L vs. Spurs: 40 minutes, 9 points (4-11 FGs, 1-1 3PT), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 2 blocks, 3 TOs, 5 fouls
W vs. Thunder: 38 minutes, 17 points (7-10 FGs, 2-3 3PT, 1-2 FTs), 4 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 blocks, 3 TOs, 3 fouls

Keith Bogans - Until Ronnie Brewer or Kyle Korver prove to Coach Thibodeau that they can play defense, Bogans has the starting shooting guard spot for the Chicago Bulls. He played a monster 36 minutes in the season debut against the Thunder contributing in every way across the boards besides buckets. With Rose putting up 31 shots, Keith didn't have much of an opportunity to do so, but defense is his calling card so he did nothing to hurt his starting status. He's had a rollback in floor time ever since and consistently puts up bland numbers. Hopefully he can notch a few more three pointers going forward so he actually is looking like he contributes on that side of the ball. I haven't read anything saying that Bogans is in danger of losing his starting role, but it sure is a head-scratcher to say the least when you see him pretty much non-existent numbers.

L @ Thunder: 36 minutes, 3 points (1-4 FGs, 1-2 3PT), 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 1 TO, 2 fouls
W vs. Pistons: 23 minutes, 2 points (1-5 FGs, 0-4 3PT), 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 fouls
W vs. Blazers: 16 minutes, 3 points (1-2 FGs, 1-2 3PT), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 fouls
L vs. Knicks: 25 minutes, 4 points (2-4 FGs, 0-2 3PT, 0-1 FTs), 1 rebound, 1 assists, 1 block, 1 TO, 1 foul
L @ Celtics: 22 minutes, 4 points (1-3 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FTs), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 TOs, 2 fouls

Demarcus Cousins - Who'da thunk it? Demarcus got in foul trouble immediately but still produced a monster debut effort against the hapless Wolves. Then his preceded to foul out the next game in 21 minutes against the Nets. But still, Cousins has shown off the whole offensive package, including some nifty wing jumpers. Hopefully he can adjust to the foul calling (not likely) and stay on the floor. His stat lines so far look eerily UK-like, but we'll see if he can keep up with some higher quality front lines that don't involve Darko. He notched his first double-double in only his third game, so now the floodgates are open for him to produce like that on a nightly basis. He followed that up with a much rougher game of (*ahem*) foul trouble against the Raptors where he only managed 17 minutes and 4 boards, though he made up for it by putting up 10 quick points in the fourth quarter to fuel a Kings comeback win. No such luck the next night as Pau abused him (as he abuses everyone) and held him to 3 of 13 shooting with night-long foul trouble. I think we all know what Cousins has to work on ... but hey, at least he swished a spot-up 3-pointer!

W @ Timberwolves: 27 minutes, 14 points (5-10 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 4-6 FTs), 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 TOs, 5 fouls
L @ Nets: 21 minutes, 12 points (3-8 FGs, 6-6 FTs), 4 rebounds, 6 fouls
W @ Cavaliers: 28 minutes, 14 points (5-10 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 4-6 FTs), 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 5 TOs, 3 fouls
W vs. Raptors: 17 minutes, 16 points (6-10 FGs, 4-4 FTs), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 5 fouls
L vs. Lakers : 20 minutes, 11 points (3-13 FGs, 1-4 3PT, 4-6 FTs), 6 rebounds, 1 block, 1 TO, 5 fouls

Chuck Hayes - Chuck got limited run against the Lakers since you definitely don't want him out on the perimeter against Lamar Odom. But against the Warriors' Lee-Biedrins front court tandem, Hayes did work. He started center in Yao's second half of the back-to-back sit-out. Even though the Rockets had to suffer through a legendary Monta Ellis night, you can't fault Hayes for it. His teammates have always raved that he has a hidden offensive game that he hasn't shown the world, so maybe Yao's off-nights will finally bring that out of him. With Yao back in the line-up against the Nuggets, Hayes once again disappeared in limited run. But he's one of the few role players in the league who knows exactly what's expected of him when he does get in there, and Rick Adelman knows his contributions to the squad have nothing to do with his numbers, even though it was pretty sweet he pulled 13 boards against the Spurs. The Rockets just gotta start winning games. That's all that really matters.

L @ Lakers: 15 minutes, 0 points (0-0 FGs), 1 assists, 1 block, 3 fouls
L @ Warriors: 39 minutes, 16 points (8-12 FGs, 0-2 FTs), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 3 TOs, 5 fouls
L vs. Nuggets: 16 minutes, 2 points (0-1 FGs, 2-4 FTs), 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 3 TOs, 2 fouls
L vs. Hornets: 12 minutes, 4 points (2-3 FGs), 2 rebounds, 1 foul
L @ Spurs: 27 minutes, 8 points (3-7 FGs, 2-2 FTs), 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, 1 TO, 3 fouls

Jamaal Magloire - The former All-Star, who somehow fell all the way down to being Joel Anthony's back-up, only gets spot minutes for the LeBron/Wade show and he's only responsible for doling out a few bruises in those minutes. It's pretty much been that way ever since he left New Orleans. I just don't understand what happened. He'll show his worth though in potential playoff match-ups against Dwight Howard, the O'Neals, or Pau/Bynum. Those are probably the only teams Magloire will get extended run against.

L @ Celtics: DNP
W @ 76ers: DNP
W vs. Magic: 5 minutes, 1 point (1-2 FTs), 1 rebound, 1 foul
W @ Nets: 3 minutes, 0 points (0-2 FTs), 1 rebound
W vs. Wolves: DNP

Nazr Mohammed - The starting center on UK's last championship winning team has had a rough early go. He's simply not getting minutes in favor of a Boris Diaw/Tyrus Thomas front court. He's started all the games but is consistently getting pulled early. Nazr's always been hit-or-miss for his entire professional career, but hopefully he can get his game on track to be a more reliable contributor for the ill-fated Bobcats this season. They look really ugly so far. His highest point production was netting 6 of 8 shots in only 14 minutes in a win against the Nets. If that doesn't tell ya how things are going, I don't know what will.

L @ Mavericks: 18 minutes, 10 points (3-8 FGs, 4-4 FTs), 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs, 1 foul
L vs. Pacers: 13 minutes, 5 points (2-4 FGs, 1-2 FTs), 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 TO, 4 fouls
L @ Bucks: 22 minutes, 3 points (1-4 FGs, 1-2 FTs), 3 rebounds, 1 block, 2 TOs, 3 fouls
W @ Nets: 14 minutes, 12 points (6-8 FGs), 1 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 1 TO, 1 foul
L @ Pistons: 9 minutes, 6 points (3-5 FGs), 3 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal, 2 TOs

Tayshaun Prince - Who even knows why he's still on the Pistons? Tayshaun's game becomes unimportant with surrounding players such as Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Tracy McGrady. This team has no identity so Prince just has to be content with going out there and trying to fill in wherever he can. He'll always be a great one-on-one defender, but his true value was made through the team's defensive system. It doesn't have one anymore, so he'll just continue to do what he does until some other team appreciates him enough to trade for him. His play has been pretty inconsistent besides his point production in the teens. This Pistons squad sucks and is in total disarray. #FreeTayshaun

L @ Nets: 31 minutes, 14 points (5-10 FGs, 4-7 FTs), 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks, 2 fouls
L vs. Thunder: 38 minutes, 12 points (6-11 FGs), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 3 TOs, 4 fouls
L @ Bulls: 42 minutes, 15 points (7-17 FGs, 1-2 FTs), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 3 fouls
L vs. Celtics: 32 minutes, 10 points (4-8 FGs, 2-2 FTs), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 TOs
L @ Hawks: 37 minutes, 17 points (8-14 FGs, 1-1 3PT), 5 rebounds, 1 TO, 1 foul

Rajon Rondo - Rondo may very well be the first week MVP based on a single stat. If it weren't for his ungodly assist numbers, everyone would instead be talking about how terrible Rajon is shooting from everywhere on the floor. And that's even with him putting up a far more efficient game in game 2, albeit in a losing effort. Rondo has dropped 17, 9, 24, 17, and 15 assists so far, the third one being part of a Jason Kidd-like triple double of 10/10/24. It's completely nuts and I refuse to believe that somebody didn't mix up an NBA 2k11 video game box score with the real one. Rondo's only cementing his reputation as a top-3 point guard from here on out. He's blowing league records out of the water and it looks like there's no stopping him from keeping it going. He's a legit MVP candidate from here on out and I think he's actually unquestionably the frontrunner for the award in these first 2 weeks. He playing that crazy.

W vs. Heat: 41 minutes, 4 points (2-9 FGs), 5 rebounds, 17 assists, 2 steals, 3 TOs, 1 foul
L @ 76ers: 38 minutes, 18 points (8-12 FGs, 1-1 3PT, 1-2 FTs), 4 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals, 4 TOs, 1 foul
W vs. Knicks: 45 minutes, 10 points (4-12 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 2-6 FTs), 10 rebounds, 24 assists, 1 steal, 7 TOs, 1 foul
W @ Pistons: 36 minutes, 9 points (3-7 FGs, 1-1 3PT, 2-2 FTs), 3 rebounds, 17 assists, 4 steals, 1 foul
W vs. Bucks: 47 minutes, 17 points (7-10 FGs, 3-4 FTs), 8 rebounds, 15 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 6 TOs, 3 fouls

John Wall - So let's just mark it down now ... second halves in the NBA now belong to John Wall. He single-handedly almost brought his team back against the Hawks in every way he could. He swished in two 3s, got fouled at will, hit multiple mid-range pull-ups off screens, consistently finished directly at the rim, and through perfect lead passes on the go. What's simple consensus is that Wall is prolly the fastest thing with a basketball, period. That's all the commentators could talk about. Even though he took a beating to the Magic and got his fair share of rejections by premier swatters Dwight Howard and Josh Smith, John's picked the NBA pace up easily. What's sick is that his beastly effort against the Hawks was surpassed in nearly every single way the very next game. Wall led his squad to their first win in an overtime session with a Wiz-record 9 steals to tack onto his 28/13 points-assists double-double. He hit all of his big shots, he made all the right passes, and he swished every late free throw. It was great to see how perfectly that aspect of his game has already transitioned to the pros. John's simply a forceful creator, as shown by his assist numbers and shot attempts early on. When he's out of the game, nothing happens for the Wizards. It'll be really interesting to see what effect Gilbert Arenas will have on Wall's production when he gets back on the floor. Everyone's let out a collective sigh since his turnover numbers skyrocketed after two pretty alright games in that category to start the season. It wouldn't be such a big deal if the Wiz were winning their games ... but they're not. So John has to stop saying he's gonna cut down on them and actually cut down on them.

L @ Magic: 35 minutes, 14 points (6-19 FGs, 2-3 FTs), 1 rebound, 9 assists, 3 steals, 3 TOs, 3 fouls
L @ Hawks: 42 minutes, 28 points (9-17 FGs, 2-3 3PT, 8-10 FTs), 5 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 TOs, 1 foul
W vs. Sixers: 45 minutes, 29 points (9-16 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 11-14 FTs), 2 rebounds, 13 assists, 9 steals, 8 TOs, 5 fouls
L @ Knicks: 35 minutes, 13 points (4-11 FGs, 0-2 3PT, 5-6 FTs), 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 9 TOs, 2 fouls
L vs. Cavaliers: 43 minutes, 13 points (5-14 FGs, 0-1 3PT, 3-4 FTs), 4 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 6 TOs, 4 fouls

Yet to play:
Kelenna Azubuike - recovering from knee surgery
Daniel Orton - rehabbing left knee
Jodie Meeks - out of the rotation
Patrick Patterson - out of the rotation

... and Free Enes.

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2010-2011 Orlando Magic

The Magic decided to pretty much stand pat even though last year's watered down version of the Celtics pushed them straight into a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals. I guess they're banking on Dwight Howard continuing to meteorically improve and the hope that Year 2 of Vince Carter is a little more ... good. They did add a little more firepower in basically swapping Anthony Johnson and Matt Barnes for Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson, but with an ever-improving Eastern Conference full of high-profile maneuvering, will it be enough?

2010-2011 Orlando Magic

Point Guard: Jameer Nelson/Chris Duhon/Jason Williams
Shooting Guard: Vince Carter/J.J. Redick
Small Forward: Mickael Pietrus/Quentin Richardson/Stanley Robinson
Power Forward: Rashard Lewis/Ryan Anderson/Brandon Bass/Malik Allen
Center: Dwight Howard/Marcin Gortat/Daniel Orton

Though he had his post-retirement moments, Chris Duhon is a big upgrade over Jason Williams as the back-up point. He regressed last season as a sometimes-starter for the Knicks, but his bounce-back is inevitable under a Stan Van Gundy-led system. And while Quentin Richardson has always been a natural 3-point threat and a solid defensive plug-in, I think they'll miss Matt Barnes' general craziness that he brought in certain situations. A Mickael Pietrus/Q-Rich combo isn't exactly a feared defensive tandem on the perimeter. That's one of the reasons that I see them having a slight drop-off this season. They'll still be a premier team bound to get top-4 home court seeding in the East, but all of their competitors made tangible improvements while Orlando went lateral.

Where they could make up that ground on their competitors is simple: Dwight. He shot a career high 61.2% from the floor last season, but he needs to get his scoring back over 20 points every game. As sick as it is to say, it would also be nice for him to up his 13.2 boards he pulled last season. He has the size and unheard-of physique to do it. As a matter of fact, he's already done it with 14.2 rebounds in '08. Basically, he just has to figure out a way to overcome Vince's presence and over-dribbling tendency to make himself a consistent force. I don't care how good the rest of his teammates chuck three-pointers, they're not gonna be anywhere close to a championship squad until Dwight puts at least 25 points on the scoreboard every night. 2004 aside, there needs to be a number one option on any great team, and Dwight needs to be that. You can't have Carter as 1A, Howard as 1B, Rashard Lewis as 1C, and Jameer Nelson as 2. It might go great for the majority of the year, but not when it really means anything.

There's not much of anything else to say about the Magic that isn't redundant of last year's squad. The guy with a surprising new contract, J.J. Redick, will be looking to prove he's valuable enough to possibly shake up the starting line-up at some point this year. He, Pietrus, Richardson, and Lewis will all be firmly planted at the 3-point line awaiting their 17 alloted chucks per game. Ryan Anderson will see if he can still naturally be such a valuable contributor that it's impossible to keep him on the bench. Marcin Gortat will probably force a trade at some point this season because there's honestly no room for him with how Van Gundy wants his team to play 48 minutes a night. Literally, his only usage would come if Dwight went down with a serious injury. And considering the fact that he's played in 489 of a possible 492 career games, that's not gonna happen. All-in-all, I think they wind up getting bitten again by the Celtics. I don't trust Howard or his back-ups enough to be able to overcome Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, and Jermaine O'Neal being thrown at him. You gotta hit the free throws from those 24 fouls being dedicated to taking you out of the game, and that's something Howard hasn't proven he can do yet. Shaq got away with it in his prime because he was already putting in over 27 points and had Kobe to clean up the rest. And that's my motto for the Orlando Magic in 2011: Vince Carter is not Kobe Bryant.

Prediction
Regular Season: 56-26
Playoffs: Eliminated in Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

... and do the John Wall.

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2009 Recruits in Retrospect

Probably more-so than any other fan base, the UK faithful obsess over recruiting rankings like there's no other joy in life. Coach Cal'll do that to ya. But it started way back when Billy G pulled in Patrick Patterson (Rivals' #17 ranked prospect in '07). Since then it's been a tradition to scour every recruiting service on the net and scrutinize its every change in ranking and selectively brag about our classes of players. I just wanted to take a look into the validity of these rankings, using 2009 as the prime example. Do the heralded top rankings hold up once these freak high school athletes step foot on campus?

Let's start with Derrick Favors. Raw numbers: 12.4 points on 61% shooting, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks in 27.5 minutes. His best performance was a 21/11 double-double in a close loss against the world champion Duke Blue Devils near the end of the season. He was distinctively option 1B to Gani Lawal's 1A on Georgia Tech. They combined to form a sizable front court tandem, thus somewhat explaining their extremely similar, neutralized statistical output. He was picked third in the NBA Draft by the 76ers.

Next is John Wall. All he did was become the Rupp National Player of the Year, a 1st Team All-American, the SEC Player of the Year, and the Freshman of the Year (from 5 different associations. Oh ... and become the top pick in the NBA Draft by the Wizards. That's all. Raw numbers: 16.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.8 steals in 34.8 minutes. He dominated the UK offensive attack for nearly the entire game, night in and night out. While it's arguable that Demarcus Cousins may have been the number 1 offensive option for large portions of the game, Wall created the majority of the opportunities for Cousins either directly (assists) or indirectly (adjusted defensive schemes). His top outing was a 22/10/8 near triple-double against Mississippi State in a close SEC win. Let's not fool around ... Wall was the absolute best freshman coming into college basketball. Hands down.

Third is Demarcus Cousins. Raw numbers: 15.1 points on 56% shooting, 9.9 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in 23.5 minutes. Cousins' early award catalog is headlined with him being a Consensus Second-Team All-American, SEC Freshman of the Year, and the fifth pick in the NBA draft by the Kings. His breakout game was a 27/18 monster double-double in the early going against Sam Houston State in only 27 minutes, but his most ferocious and impacting contribution was the 18/18 he rung up on Samardo Samuels and blood rival Louisville in only 26 minutes.

As default judgement electives, I'll use the following comparisons. The Sporting News All-Freshman Team was appropriately headlined by Wall, Cousins, and Favors in addition to Derrick Williams of Arizona and Xavier Henry of Kansas. The freshman drafted into the league went in the order of Wall, Favors, Cousins, Henry, Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradley, Daniel Orton, Hassan Whiteside, Lance Stephenson, and Tiny Gallon.

My post-freshman 2009 prospect rankings:
1. John Wall (17/4/7) for Kentucky
2. Demarcus Cousins (15/10/1) for Kentucky
3. Derrick Favors (12/8/1) for Georgia Tech
4. Xavier Henry (13/4/2) for Kansas
5. Eric Bledsoe (11/3/3) for Kentucky
6. Avery Bradley (12/3/2) for Texas
7. Kenny Boynton (14/3/3) for Florida
8. Hassan Whiteside (13/9/0) for Marshall
9. Lance Stephenson (12/5/3) for Cincinnati
10. Tiny Gallon (10/8/1) for Oklahoma State

Of course, hindsight is always (enter cliche here), but I'm going to be judgmental anyway. The winner in the rankings system? Rivals. They had Wall, Cousins, Favors as their 1/2/3 while also ranking Bledsoe the highest of any site at #23. The loser? ESPN. They went with Bradley, Favors, and Henry as their top three, relegating Demarcus and John to mop-up duty at 4 and 5. Plus ESPN left Bledsoe off of their rankings altogether. The big strikeout, unless he breaks out during the remainder of his college career, is John Henson, who was relegated to 5 points per game in his debut NCAA season. And while Henson was getting all the top-10 love, Hassan Whiteside is now signing his NBA contract papers even though he was a forgotten commodity ranked #87 by Rivals and unranked by both Scout and ESPN. That's probably why he was stuck at Marshall while every other one-and-done was getting TV time playing for a premier program. But, honestly, for all we know ... Renardo Sidney may be the best out of everybody. Ha.

This is only a one-year-later judgement, though. This last season of basketball isn't the end-all, be-all of their careers. Going back to the earlier comparison, John Henson may very well be a strong player in the pros seven years down the road while Hassan Whiteside is forced into D-League obscurity. Only time will tell the whole story. But the big lesson I'm trying to get at is this: ESPN's high school rankings blow. I don't care if he has a championship ring, Mason Plumlee and his dumbly clumsy 3.7 points and 3.1 rebounds were not the #10 prospect last year. That's all. Oh, and don't freak out that Michael Gilchrist may have fallen allll the way down to number five in the Scout rankings. If our very own world-dominator John Wall can sport an undeserved #5 ranking on his chest, I'm sure Gilchrist can manage and still be a killer, too.

... and do the John Wall.

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The Tale of the Spreadsheet

... and do the John Wall.

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Orton Expectations

Daniel Orton - 6'10", 255 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
13.2 minutes, 3.4 points (52.7% FG, 52.4% FT), 3.3 rebounds, .4 assists, 1.4 blocks, .6 steals, 1.0 TO

Sucky stats, I know. But Daniel still managed to get selected in the first round based on potential. And I'll now put value to that potential.

Pluses for Daniel: shot blocking, unknown shooting ability, and a high level of athleticism when healthy. Forget every preconception you have about the guy coming off back-up duty as a college freshman and all the anger you have towards him for leaving for the pros early. Orton's career will not be defined by the completion of his rookie contract. He's simply not ready or currently healthy enough for that to be the case. I see him as having an eerily similar career path as Jermaine O'Neal. While under his rookie contract with the Portland Trailblazers, O'Neal struggled to stay on the floor for double-digit minutes for four entire seasons. A year later, he was able to escape Rasheed Wallace's daunting shadow (and influence) and earns 32 minutes a game with the Indiana Pacers. He then proceeds to spend the next 6 years in his playing prime as a premier All-Star post player and noted defensive swatter. Not bad for a guy who still averaged less than 4 points during the year that hypothetically could have been his senior season in college. When given the opportunity after an extended tutoring allotment, Jermaine flipped the switch. That's the best case scenario I see for Daniel Orton.

Jermaine O'Neal - 6'11", 255 lb.
2002-2003 with Indiana Pacers
37.2 minutes, 20.8 points (48.4% FG, 73.1% FT), 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, .9 steals, 2.3 TO

Much like O'Neal, Orton has a sick jump shot extending out to around 20 feet. He never once got to show it at UK, but I swear to you it's there. People close to the Wildcat ball club last year would tell you that Daniel was easily one of the squad's top 3 practice shooters. He has a feathery touch, just not the confidence yet to prove it in game action. Hence the disgustingly painful free throw percentage. He also has a few legitimate post moves that were only seen in literally about three play sequences in the entirety of his abbreviated college career. The majority of his adjustments, as dismissive as it is for me to say, rely exclusively in getting healthy, building his body, and getting used to NBA-sized contact. The talent and knowledge of the game are there; every player who played against Daniel daily in practice would tell you the same thing. He's a quality human being with the right combination of height and an understanding of the game, but he's been caught as the proverbial deer in the headlights over the course of the last calendar year. That's why I have such confidence in his potential ability to succeed at the highest level.

Worst case scenario is quite a bit more grim, though. While I hope Daniel finds a team where he can carve his niche and his extensive (and, as of yet, unseen) skill set can be utilized, nothing in the league is guaranteed. His knee may not heal as perfect as he (and the Orlando Magic) may hope. Or he may simply never regain the confidence to explode effectively off his knee, neutralizing his natural level of athleticism for the rest of his career. Maybe because of all the things going on in Daniel's life (the death of his mother, the lack of control shown by his father in the media, the outpouring hatred of a portion of UK fans, his plunge in NBA draft boards), he isn't able to put it all together at the right time and loses his chance at professional basketball prominence. In that case, his career ceiling falls to the disappointing level of a Keon Clark replication. Clark came out of UNLV in 1998 and was drafted by the Magic with the 13th pick. He was a highly talented big who couldn't ever seem to focus all of his attention on the court, resulting in him being relegated to a simple defender who couldn't even manage staying in the league for six seasons. His best outing came in 2002 when he put down the bong long enough to start 31 games for the Vince Carter-lead Raptors.

Keon Clark - 6'11", 221 lb.
2001-2002 with Toronto Raptors
27.0 minutes, 11.3 points (49.0% FG, 67.4% FT), 7.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 blocks, .7 steals, 1.7 TO

Besides health and conditioning issues, the biggest obstacle in Daniel's path to early floor time is his own teammates. The Magic probably have more front court depth than any NBA team should. Dwight Howard is the main cog with the rest of the power forward and back-up center minutes taken up by Rashard Lewis, Marcin Gortat, Ryan Anderson, and Brandon Bass. On top of that there's even fellow rookie Stanley Robinson as 12th man competition. Unless the roster is purged for Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul in some massive trade, I don't see how Daniel manages any clock in the early going. Though that's probably not a bad thing since he definitely isn't ready at this point. On a brighter note, Patrick Ewing will definitely be a pivotal piece in getting the right habits going for Daniel's future opportunities.

Here's hoping Daniel manages to steer his way closer to Jermaine territory as an eventual franchise-type player for a regularly competing team as opposed to a journeyman plagued by off court issues ousted out of the pro ranks before his 30th birthday. Make Oklahoma and Kentucky proud, Daniel. I don't know about everyone else, but I'm willing to give you a little extra leeway in your window to accomplish that.

... and do the John Wall.

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UK NBA Team Photo

Demarcus
Cousins.

Eric
Bledsoe.

Patrick
Patterson.

John
Wall.

Daniel
Orton.

What else do ya need to know?

... and do the John Wall.

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Way-Too-Early 2011 UK Preview

I think next year’s team is Final Four caliber. I know that’s insane to say with all of the departures from last year. 4/6ths of our all-time freshman class left for professional pastures leaving the unproven pieces of Jon Hood and Darnell Dodson to try their hand at a second year of Division 1 basketball. With our seniors (Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson) and pseudo-senior (Patrick Patterson) also leaving, all veteran leadership is potentially left to big man senior Josh Harrellson and wing juniors Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins. Those obviously weren’t the optimal conditions to enter the summer under.

While anyone who wasn’t oblivious to the lures of being a top-5 draft pick knew that Demarcus Cousins and John Wall were guaranteed to have single year tenures, less expected Daniel Orton and Eric Bledsoe to have such high stock and bolt. Orton was supposed to effortlessly assume Jarvis Varnado’s place as the most feared big in the country. With his impeccable size and extra year amongst the college ranks, Orton could have put up monster numbers while inheriting literally all of Pat and Boogie’s frontline minutes. He could have showed everyone that he could stay out of foul trouble as well as have his face-up game utilized to prove his versatility and cement his status as one of Billy G’s proudest leftovers. Him and Bledsoe were supposed to become the nation’s elite 1-2 punch, usurping that claim from their former teammates the previous year. Bledsoe was going to slide into the pure point role and pair with Brandon Knight to cement the strongest backcourt combo along with the stupid Dukies (Kyrie Irving and Andre Dawkins). With his full year of off-guard experience, Bledsoe could have curbed his turnovers and established his elite passing skills that would so strongly compliment his otherworldly athleticism. But neither scenario will come to fruition as the pair’s raw skills and limitless potential has allowed them to be a first round pick on everyone and their mom’s draft board. So instead of bringing in some strong complimentary pieces to cement a mostly established Elite 8 roster, Coach Cal had to improvise an entire new team and managed to pull five more highly touted freshmen and an untapped Gator transfer into the fold. So here’s UK’s prospective do-over line-up.

C: Enes Kanter/Josh Harrellson
PF: Terrence Jones/Eloy Vargas
SF: Darius Miller/Darnell Dodson/Stacey Poole
SG: Doron Lamb/DeAndre Liggins/Jon Hood
PG: Brandon Knight/Jarrod Polson

The biggest difference that you need to understand right off the bat is how many more 3-point shooting options we will have this year. Doron Lamb is the perfect spot-up guard that Eric pretended to be for about 4 games, while Brandon Knight is a consistent threat to create his own long-range opportunities whenever he wants. Terrence Jones is also a more than capable shooter who will pick his spots since he has the ultimate floor-game in the mold of a player like Lamar Odom. Enes Kanter will be a surprise threat as a fast break trailer. While Coach Cal may or may not utilize his shooting specifically or regularly in the offense, you just need to know without a doubt that Enes is dead-eye from anywhere on the floor. I promise. With those four freshmen mixed in with the hopefully improving 3-point confidence of Darius and DeAndre plus Darnell as the ultimate wildcard, we should never have a game next season similar to the West Virginia brickfest. On paper, it’s impossible with this roster.

The second point of note is our reconstructed front court. The Cousins/Patterson/Orton trio has been completely reconstructed into a Kanter/Jones/Vargas trio with Harrellson on deck if Vargas doesn't adjust to the level of competition right away. As weird as it is to say, Jones could possibly be more productive than Pat was for most of the year in his power forward slot. The Dribble Drive Motion Offense is made to especially highlight two very specific skill sets. The first is a penetrating point guard who can finish with power to guarantee that the defense is drawn to the rim on any given play. Examples 1A, 1B, 1C, and 2 are Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, John Wall, and Brandon Knight. The second skill set is a forward who's a shooting threat, but one who can put the ball on the floor with ease. Unfortunately, Coach Cal hasn't had a premier prospect in that mold since Shawne Williams, who was more famous for his marijuana and codeine issues than his basketball skill set. So T-Jones is in line to be that guy in the system next year. Just know that it's gonna be fun. Before Terrence committed, Coach Cal was faced with a roster where he may have had to go exclusively with line-ups composed of 4 guards and a forward. But now we have the legitimate size threat again with the frontline clocking in at 6'11"/6'9"/6'11" that may see a rotation similar to last season's.

One potential situation that won't really be an issue, but will inevitably be written about shamelessly, is the point guard position. Knight will be the only true point in the rotation as no one expects Jarrod Polson to ever hit the floor besides in Krebs-like mop-up duty. Therefore, either Brandon is going to have to catch on seamlessly and stay on the floor every single minute or we'll have to have to institute a back-up-by-committee approach. That committee could very well look Gillispie-like with Miller and Liggins attempting their hand at ball handling duties along with Lamb whenever needed. So while it may look like a possible derailing point at some instance in the season, there will never actually be a real drop off at the lead guard during regulation. Plus, with a guy as multi-faceted as Jones, there will always be a capable player to step up who can get advance the ball to where it needs to be if Knight happens to be taking a breather. So, barring an actual Knight injury, don't worry about it.

Speaking of back-ups, we'll have quite a serviceable bench mob next season. DeAndre seems the likely candidate to be the first guy pulling off his warm-up jersey every night as he could actually, if needed, fill in any position 1-4. With his will to be an energy player, general unselfishness, and vastly improved shooting confidence, I like him as one of the best 6th men in the NCAA. Vargas will most likely be the first big to substitute in at the first sight of foul trouble. While not half the athlete of Orton a year ago, Eloy is actually significantly taller and has a hint of SEC experience and a full year of JuCo dominance under his belt. Hopefully that will translate into significant production, both on the defensive end and creating his own scoring opportunities on the offensive glass. Assuming that Hood doesn't make summer strides to leapfrog him or that Poole isn't quite an immediate contributor, Darnell Dodson is probably slated as the resident 8th man. If he can improve his general decision making, Dodson's shooting will be as strong a weapon as any team has coming off their bench. That kind of surprise player every few games is what changes this squad from a very, very good team to a great team. The last bench factor would be if you have faith in Harrellson's summer progression. He could never manage to break into the rotation last year, stuck even behind Stevenson. But with his sizable frame and sweet shooting stroke, any quality floor time from him would make us as deep a team as there is out there. Our bench is full of potential X-factors everywhere on the floor. If two or so of these guys click each game while the starters are chilling, there will be very few teams that could give us a run for our money.

Some may think that any expectations of matching or surpassing last season's breakout are utterly ridiculous. I thoroughly disagree with that notion. Though none of our freshmen are as singularly talented or naturally dominant as John Wall turned out to be, this recruiting class is much more balanced and provides the pivotal shooting proficiency that we lacked for the majority of the season. No one will be asked to play out of position as Bledsoe was and no one will have to find how they can change their already established game to fit the offense as Patterson did. While we'll miss out on the locker room leadership and general experience of Pat, Perry, and Ramon, Coach Cal will find the right buttons to press with the right players to fill that void. My last surprise prediction for the upcoming season is about the potential production of our new foreign big man Enes Kanter. I think he'll garner attention for National Player of the Year. While a more appealing wing player like Harrison Barnes will probably wind up as the top pick in the 2011 Draft as teams hope he's the next Kobe/Durant-type franchise player, I have an inkling that Kanter will set himself up for that second slot. Just a hunch. I'll throw this link up again approximately a year from now and you can be sure to praise/clown me appropriately.

My 2010-2011 UK season prediction: a 4 loss regular season record, the third #1 seed, and a Final Four birth. Hold me to it.

... and do the John Wall.

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Mass Leviticus

I feel the need to throw my two cents in about the offseason happenings of the UK basketball team. And I think I'm more entitled than any on the subject, so let me rant.

Starting at the ending ... you are NOT allowed to feel any negative emotion whether anger or disappointment or anything else about our five underclassmen leaving. John Wall. Demarcus Cousins. Patrick Patterson. Eric Bledsoe. Daniel Orton. All gone.

Daniel is gone after a year with dominating averages of 3.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks in ... 13.2 minutes. But guess what? He's gonna be a top 15 draft pick, maybe even to his home team of the Oklahoma City Thunder to play on the most talented up-and-coming squad in the league. I'm willing to put money on the fact that Daniel will shatter his college freshman averages easily with his NBA rookie averages. He's as nice a kid as you'll ever meet, his basketball I.Q. is off the charts, and he's already in California training to perfect his conditioning for his already NBA-size body. Sure, he would have killed next season in the NCAA as our primary offensive weapon while already being a defensive juggernaut, but there are no guarantees in the sporting world when it comes to health, money, or location an entire year down the road. With how much the scouts loved Orton and the kinds of strides he made late in the season with the little playing time he received, he had to go to the draft. He's now a millionaire and an immediate contributor for an NBA team, eclipsing all of his freshman shortcomings. Root for him. Or else you're a jerk. He was still gonna frickin' come to our school when Billy G was our frickin' coach!!!

And Eric's a completely different story. Eric needed to go for his and our mental health this upcoming season. Don't underestimate the power of tight-knit friendship with a teenager who was uprooted from his home state and planted in the most publicly scrutinized athletic program in America. All the talk last preseason, if you remember that far back, was about "The Three Amigos". John, Boogie, and Eric hit it off immediately on campus after getting to know each other through different high school all-star games and all uniting under the new UK Calipari regime. E is a pretty quiet and introverted guy, and while he may be able to connect with some other teammates closer and kill it on the court as a sophomore next year, I'm just saying that he probably wouldn't enjoy himself as much and that could create an issue with his psyche. Who knows if he would mesh as well in the backcourt with Brandon Knight as he did with John? I have a feeling that his NBA stock would probably be higher after this year as a top 20-pick (and the 2nd point guard prospect) than it would be if he'd stayed additional seasons. So it's pretty much a no-brainer that he should follow the two other amigos. Don't look down on the kid for that.

The 2009-2010 season left so many incomparable memories for all the UK fans in the world, especially the younger ones like me. I was only 8 when we got our second title in three years with Coach Pitino and Tubby. So, sure, I had the autographed Scott Padgett poster in my room, but I wasn't fully enthralled on the day to day happenings of the program like I am today. Now I'm blessed enough to live in the same dorm as these instantly legendary UK guys who are about to blow up the NBA. I'll never forget Eric seemingly incapable of missing a jump shot against Indiana, Florida, and East Tennessee. I'll never forget Demarcus becoming a completely different basketball entity altogether after nearly single-handedly losing the Cancun Challenge for us, all culminating in that beautiful 0.1 tip-in to send the SEC Championship game into overtime. I'll never forget the worries of if Pat would be able to fit into Coach's new offense, only to witness him knock down 24 threes this season and still finish 57.5% from the floor altogether to improve his draft stock. I'll never forget John's debut game-winning jumper or his NC/UCONN dominance or his regular behind-the-back lay-up drives or his undying will to win at all costs. I'll never forget Daniel's step back three pointer to end the Blue-White scrimmage or his 3-block possession against Florida or his hilarious goaltending.

Yeah, we lost to West Virginia in the Elite 8. Yeah, we got three guys graduating, five guys leaving early, and few other huge question marks. But you know what? This was the greatest season I've ever been a part of on a daily basis and I'm perfectly fine accepting it exactly how it happened. Year One of the John Calipari era is over and it's better than I ever could've expected. Our record was 35-3, we broke 2000 wins all-time, and we won the SEC regular season and tournament titles. I don't know about you, but I can appreciate that after two years of Billy G failure while also knowing we're sending five guys into the NBA (including the #1 overall pick) and set to easily reload and compete at an elite level every single year for the foreseeable future. So if you're complaining ... shut up.

... and do the John Wall.

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Clash of the Titans

Me and my new best friend Daniel Orton! HAHAHA.

I swear, he's the coolest guy ever and he's now instantly bound to be my favorite basketball player ever once he gets his NBA chops. This picture also got me a post on KSR (my favorite website ever). So I'm crazy pumped. And I'm not even gonna mention how I beat him in ping pong, too ... whoops.

... but do take my word for it.

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Fear Our Right Now

John Wall. Darnell Dodson. Daniel Orton. Jon Hood. DeMarcus Cousins. Eric Bledsoe. I see your Fab Five and raise you my Kill Your Dreams Six.

... but do take my word for it.

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A Lil' Fulfillment

So I guess the Calipari thing worked out. Considering that I actually passed him while he was jogging around with Rod Strickland on campus. I almost had a panic attack. I'm calling "no-man-crush" but I swear Coach Cal had an aura about him. I wanted to throw out a "good luck" or "love ya coach", but I couldn't muster a darn thing.

So he already wrapped up one-and-done DeMarcus Cousins and I'll enjoy every minute of the season with him. Liggins is apparently perfectly suited for coach's offense and Miller is set to be a straight beast under his masterful tutelage. The only minor setbacks are Jodie's testing of the draft pool and super-recruit Orton possibly wavering, but I think both of them will be in Kentucky blue next season, regardless. I try to not get hyped on the we're-a-Final-Four-team-immediately after not being ranked for two years, but I really think that the sky is the limit right away. Like right away.

Now we as Big Blue Nation just have to wait for all the rest of the recruiting chips to fall in place and for the entire roster as a whole to get settled in so it's a for sure thing. And we also gotta deal with UK hatred from the rest of the world, as well as our own unruly brethren who create avenues for all the hate.

I expect huge things from coach. And even though seemed to deflect expectations in the introductory news conference, he expects huge things as well. I say we have a Final Four run along with an extra championship banner in the next 4 years. We just will. I feel it in my raggedy old bones.

... put 'em both together and you got yourself a super spork.

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