Analyzing UK's 2011 Schedule

So everybody and their mom can look at the end-of-season records/rankings of any team and interpret whatever they want from that. But I want to go a lil' deeper. I want to go back through our season and genuinely analyze our worthwhile games. There needs to be a more significant perspective put upon the ups-and-downs of the full season that you don't get from simply looking back on the internet schedule. For instance, who knew back on the fateful day of December 8th that UK demolished a newly-ranked squad on a "neutral" floor that would go on to tear up the rest of their schedule and be in contention for a number one seed at the end of the year? When our schedule dropped in the summer, absolutely no one had the non-Harangody's pegged for our signature win of the season, but it actually turns out to be so in retrospect.

I'm gonna give you the full range of all of Kentucky's significant victories as well of all their losses and rate them accordingly. I want to save us from the snap judgements that have rendered our match-up against North Carolina as a must-see clash of titans turned into a miserable foretelling loss turned into a strongly competitive road miss against an immensely talented squad. We need perspective people! Note: this only analyzes our scheduled regular season games.

Big wins:
Nov. 23 - Washington by 7
#11 when we played them
#17 Preseason
#11 Peak Ranking in week 3
#23 End of season, #7 seed in NCAA, second round loss
Bottom Line: Good Neutral Court Win (+2)

Dec. 8 - Notre Dame by 14
#23 when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#4 Peak Ranking in week 18
#6 End of season, #2 seed in NCAA, second round loss
Bottom Line: Terrific Neutral Court Win (+3)

Dec. 31 - Louisville by 15
#20 when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
#11 Peak Ranking in week 17, 19
#11 End of season, #4 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Terrific Road Win (+3)

Jan. 29 - Georgia by 6
Unranked when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
Peak Ranking with votes in weeks 10, 11, 12
Unranked End of season, #10 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Okay Home Win (+1)

Feb. 8 - Tennessee by 12
Unranked when we played them
#20 Preseason
#7 Peak Ranking in week 6
Unranked End of season, #9 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Good Home Win (+2)

Feb. 15 - Mississippi St. by 6
Unranked when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
Never Ranked but with votes in weeks 2, 3, 4
Unranked End of season, no tournament
Bottom Line: Okay Home Win (+1)

Feb. 26 - Florida by 8
#13 when we played them
#11 Preseason
#10 Peak Ranking in week 2
#13 End of season, #2 seed in NCAA, Elite Eight loss
Bottom Line: Terrific Home Win (+3)

Mar. 1 - Vanderbilt by 2
#20 when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#18 Peak Ranking in weeks 15, 16
#21 End of season, #5 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Good Home Win (+2)

Mar. 6 - Tennessee by 6
Unranked when we played them
#20 Preseason
#7 Peak Ranking in week 6
End of season, #9 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Okay Road Win (+1)

Losses:
Nov. 24 - Connecticut by 17
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#4 Peak Ranking in weeks 6, 7, 8
#8 End of season, #3 seed in NCAA, Final Four team
Bottom Line: Okay Neutral Court Loss (-2)

Dec. 4 - North Carolina by 2
Unranked when we played them
#9 Preseason
#7 Peak Ranking in week 18, 19
#7 End of season, #2 seed in NCAA, Elite Eight loss
Bottom Line: Good Road Loss (-1)

Jan. 8 - Georgia by 7
Unranked when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
Never Ranked but with votes in weeks 10, 11, 12
Unranked End of season, #10 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Okay Road Loss (-2)

Jan. 18 - Alabama by 2
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
Never Ranked but with votes in weeks 14, 17, 18
Unranked End of season, #1 seed in NIT
Bottom Line: Okay Road Loss (-2)

Feb. 1 - Mississippi by 2
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
Never Ranked
Unranked End of season, #5 seed in NIT
Bottom Line: Terrible Road Loss (-3)

Feb. 5 - Florida by 2
#23 when we played them
#11 Preseason
#10 Peak Ranking in week 2
#13 End of season, #2 seed in NIT, Elite Eight loss
Bottom Line: Good Road Loss (-1)

Feb. 12 - Vanderbilt by 4
#24 when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#18 Peak Ranking in weeks 15, 16
#21 End of season, #5 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Good Road Loss (-1)

Feb. 23 - Arkansas by 1
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
Never Ranked
Unranked End of season, no tournament
Bottom Line: Terrible Road Loss (-3)

So by my arbitrary mathematics, we came out +3 on our collective of 17 games that mattered in retrospect. This deems our additional 9 games (all wins) against East Tennessee State, Portland, Oklahoma, Boston University, Indiana, Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, Coppin State, Pennsylvania, and LSU as irrelevant place holders. The closest of any of those contests was a 12-point victory over Oklahoma in our opening Maui Invitational game. If we hadn't have lost to Arkansas and Mississippi then they would've been reviewed as irrelevant games, as well.

So here's the easier review of our surprisingly legit regular season schedule that reframes our assumed meh 22-8 record into the #7 RPI ranking at season's end, significantly higher than our ESPN or AP poll slots at any given point of the year.

Preseason: games against 9, 11 (twice), 17, 20 (twice)
Only four of our opponents were ranked in the top 25 (North Carolina, Florida, Washington, and Tennessee) to start the season. Three teams (Georgia, Louisville, and Mississippi State) sat on the ranking outskirts with scattered votes. We went 4-2 in games against the anticipated top 25. That extends to 7-3 if you include the teams receiving votes.

End of Season: games against 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 (twice), 21 (twice), 23
See any kind of difference? We wound up playing nine games against seven opponents that finished in the top 25 (Notre Dame, North Carolina, Connecticut, Louisville, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Washington). We went 5-4 against these end-of-season elite and while that's a mile from great, anything over .500 against the top squads in the nation is nothing to overlook.

Peak Breakdown:
0-1 against UCONN who peaked at #4
1-0 against Notre Dame who peaked at #4
0-1 against North Carolina who peaked at #7
2-0 against Tennessee who peaked at #7
1-1 against Florida who peaked at #10
1-0 against Louisville who peaked at #11
1-0 against Washington who peaked at #11
1-1 against Vanderbilt who peaked at #18
4-3 against teams who were at one point in the top 10
7-4 against teams who were at one point in the top 18
9-5 against teams who at one point received top 25 votes

Now here's where we see the bigger deal and get a much better perspective than that given by UK's 2010-2011 schedule printout that only credits us with 5 snapshot wins against ranked opponents all outside of the top 10 and has us losing to the dually unranked-at-the-time UCONN Huskies and North Carolina Tarheels.

Bottom Line: we played a surprisingly blistering schedule this season and came away from it looking pretty sweet if you can possibly convince yourself to overlook the gutter road losses we endured to Mississippi and Arkansas. Looking at it this in-depth, maybe we were far better prepared for the deep tourney run we find ourselves in than even any of us Big Blue Faithful gave our boys credit for.

... and Free Enes.