One-and-Done Effect on Calipari's Teams

#1 pick, a coach, #1 pick

You probably think the one-and-done thing is a really big deal that is possibly responsible for destroying college basketball.

It's not. But for this post I'll just focus on the slick-haired Italian not named Pitino who's the lightning rod for all things one-and-done.

John Calipari - Memphis (4), Kentucky (4)
(2002, #6 pick) Dajuan Wagner
(2006, #17 pick) Shawne Williams
(2008, #1 pick) Derrick Rose
(2009, #4 pick) Tyreke Evans
(2010, #1/5/18/30 picks) John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Daniel Orton

So Coach Cal is the evil face of this system, right? He's runs an NBA farming squad that fast forwards guys right into the pros, right? Or maybe his first year at Kentucky was simply an outlier. An anomaly. A crazy happenstance. Calipari coached nine seasons in Memphis and churned out an enormous quantity of ... four freshmen NBAers. He also happened to send one early-entry sophomore and one early-entry junior, Darius Washington and Chris Douglas-Roberts, to the professional ranks. How many pros do you think he had spend a full four seasons in college? None or maybe a single random guy, right? This one-and-done recruiter can't have possibly developed players over the extent of their college careers and put them into a positive position maybe even beyond their natural capabilities, right? Five Memphis seniors under Cal have played in the NBA. Robert Dozier, Joey Dorsey, Rodney Carney, Antonio Burks, and Earl Barron.

And what about Cal's success in post-1&Done seasons? Surely if players leaving too early is such a monumental problem then it would create a noticeable correlation to the following season's detriment. Memphis went from 27-9 NIT Champions with Dajuan Wagner to 23-7 making the NCAA Tournament in 2003. They went from the 33-4 Elite 8 with Shawne Williams to the 33-4 Elite 8 in 2007. They dropped from 38-2 losing the championship game with Derrick Rose to dropping 33-4 in the Sweet 16 in 2009. Calipari left Memphis after Tyreke Evans' single season to start over at UK, remolding a team that went straight to the Elite 8 in 2010.

Then there was the 2011 mass exodus. But I've already covered that enough.

So Calipari hasn't won a championship. If that's your end-all-be-all argument, then you win. If all of Derrick Rose, John Wall, and Demarcus Cousins came back for multiple follow-up seasons, then yes, Calipari probably would've claimed a title by now. But then again, maybe not since proceeding recruits might've looked elsewhere for more prevalent playing time. Then there are always freak injuries, chemistry problems, and situational transfers ... so ... there's no guarantee either way. Calipari has milked pretty much every ounce of blood, sweat, and tears out of his roster every year. I honestly think the only underachievement you can mark him for is his first Kentucky squad not at least making a Final Four. But even with that, you're talking about a team with a brand new coach who's starting three freshmen with a single returning contributor from the previous season. So it's strictly off talent and will that they were a favorite at all.

Bottom-line: There have been two seasons where a one-and-done departure has seriously affected a John Calipari team. 2009 without Derrick Rose and 2011 without Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, and Orton.

The 2008-2009 Memphis starting five could have hypothetically been Derrick Rose/Tyreke Evans/Antonio Anderson/Robert Dozier/Shawn Taggart ... but is that even a guaranteed championship contender in a year with Hansbrough's Tar Heels stomping the field? The 2010-2011 team would've hypothetically been an all-time juggernaut if any two of the four departures would've stayed ... but then you don't know who stays healthy or if Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones wind up here at all. And we made the Final Four as constituted. Sooo ...

Calipari's career in summary
19 years coaching [8 at UMASS, 9 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
509-152 (77%) record [193-71 (73%) at UMASS, 252-69 (79%) at Memphis, 64-12 (84%) at UK]
13 NCAA Tournaments [5 at UMASS, 6 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
9 Sweet Sixteens [3 at UMASS, 4 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
7 Elite Eights [2 at UMASS, 3 at Memphis, 2 at UK]
3 Final Fours [1 at UMASS, 1 at Memphis, 1 at UK]
1 Championship Game loss [Memphis]

... and Free Enes.

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The Lost Recruits: 2009

I love the heavy months of high school basketball recruiting. Having John Calipari as your head coach will make you obsessive about that kind of thing. So many kids become the most important thing a UK fan could possibly keep tabs on, only to fade from our entire conscious the second they pick the hat of another program. I wanted to bring back our old temporary dudes to give a perspective on if Coach Cal has been making the perfect recruiting pulls that we assume he's been making as our infallible grand puba.

All of the given rankings are according to Rivals and all the stats are displayed as points/rebounds/assists blocks-steals with percentages given as (field goal/three-point/free throw)%.

#8 (SG) Xavier Henry
NCAA - Kansas (2009-2010): 13/4/2 0-2 with (46/42/78)% at 28 MPG in 36 games
NBA - Grizzlies (2010-2011): 6/1/1 0-0 with (44/22/70)% at 21 MPG in 16 starts
In a year where Coach Cal seemed to be picking his recruits straight off the factory line, Xavier was the single one who actually got away. Which is kind of weird because he already had his commitment to start off. X and Demarcus Cousins were the flagship guys that Cal already had signed to play for him at the University of Memphis, marking his first dual superstar class to one-up his Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans recruitments. Once Calipari took the Kentucky job, Henry immediately de-committed from Memphis and proceeded to have one of the most confusingly indecisive recruitments ever. On any given day, Henry was reported to have committed to Kansas or to have switched his verbal to Kentucky or to have been told by either of his parents to attend opposite schools. This went full circle through the media rounds two separate occasions before he finally suited up for the Jayhawks, drawing the ire of UK fans who minutes before were pleading for him. He tore our heart strings out twice and was probably amongst the most hated humans out there last season for the Wildcat faithful. Before we quickly forgot that he existed, of course. After an early bounce from the NCAA tournament, Xavier proceeded to bolt from KU right for the league (as was always expected) and was selected 12th by the Memphis Grizzlies. His NBA career started out with a rough PR patch when he held out from signing his rookie contract for a significant amount of time over the small wiggle percentage that NBA teams are allowed to finagle under the rookie scale. His play on the court was never an issue, but prima dona claims have followed him due to weirdness of his recruiting journey and certain statements he's let slip publicly.

Bottom-line: Miss. Henry possibly could have been the missing piece to a championship season last year as he would have been an immense upgrade over Darnell Dodson and redefined the team as the probable starting shooting guard, relegating Eric Bledsoe to a 6th man role. As an outsider, though, he could have created chemistry problems due to not connecting early with "The Three Amigos" of freshmen John Wall, Cousins, and Bledsoe.

#11 (SG) Lance Stephenson
NCAA - Cincinnati (2009-2010): 12/5/3 0-1 with (44/22/66)% at 28 MPG in 34 games
NBA - Pacers (2010-2011): 3/2/1 0-0 with (33/0/79)% at 10 MPG in 12 games
Lance had his fair share of image issues in high school that left him as the last beauty pageant contestant on the runway. Before Cincinnati accepted him an entire month after the last day of the late signing period, not a single flagship program was willing to take a chance on Stephenson's elite talent after Kansas, St. John's, Maryland, and Arizona all severed ties after he floated them as his "finalists." He was an ineligibility risk at one time due to his involvement in a documentary following his high school basketball exploits. Beyond that, his personal reputation was sullied to begin with due to being suspended as a high school senior for fighting with a teammate as well as facing a misdemeanor sexual assault charge in the same year. Before his first season as a Pacer even started, he was arrest for third degree assault in an incident involving his girlfriend. Lance was always slated as a probable one-and-done guy and he upheld that by bolting for the NBA right away, being selected in the second round by the Indiana Pacers with the 40th pick. Just months earlier he told reporters: "I don't think I have had an NBA season this year so the best choice is for me to stay."

Bottom-line: Great pass. It's undeniably a good thing we skipped giving "Born Ready" a chance. His rap sheet reads as every problem people thought Demarcus Cousins would be. Great talent, but an eligibility risk and would have caused chemistry problems for the single season he would have spent at UK. He also was a mediocre long-range shooter and would have required the ball to be taken out of John Wall's hands.

#19 (SF) Royce White
NCAA - Minnesota (2009-2010): did not play, left team
NCAA - Iowa State (2010-2011): did not play, sat out due to transfer
Royce was originally a Tubby commit who never suited up for Minny due to a mall arrest because of shoplifting and misdemeanor assault on a security guard. This was followed up with him being mentioned in the case of a stolen laptop from a dorm. White left the team after the hard stance Minnesota took with him, though he claimed to know nothing about the laptop. All of this has temporarily stymied the basketball career of a McDonald's All-American who was renowned as a monster rebounder who can score from anywhere on the floor as a combo forward. White originally vowed that he was quitting basketball altogether because of the way he was treated at Minnesota, but Coach Cal highly considered adding him to UK's 2010 class once he reneged and started looking for a school to transfer to. In later interviews, White said that he felt Iowa State was a better fit than Kentucky even though Calipari offered him a scholarship. However, it's contrastingly been reported that Kentucky pulled back on its pursuit of White before he committed to the Cyclones.

Bottom-line: To be determined. White could have been an invaluable frontline addition to create a legitimate big man trio with Terrence Jones and Josh Harrellson in 2010-2011, but his ability has yet to be shown against collegiate competition and his possible character issues could have plagued the team through media scrutiny. Once he hits the court and stays out of trouble, we'll see if we actually missed out on a ball player.

#58 (SG) Nolan Dennis
NCAA - Baylor (2009-2010): 2/1/1 0-0 (44/29/50)% at 8 MPG in 25 games
NCAA - Baylor (2010-2011): 2/1/0 0-1 (41/23/50)% at 8 MPG in 15 games
Dennis was supposed to be great slasher with a solid shooting stroke coming into the collegiate ranks. Calipari obviously agreed by making Dennis part of his broken-up Memphis class (along with Cousins, Henry, Darnell Dodson, and Will Coleman). Everyone out of that class except for Coleman bounced to another team, with Dennis heading to Baylor. He's barely made a ripple of an impact since, only hitting his career high of 10 points in two separate games and not even stepping on the floor for a large percentage of the games beyond that. There's always room for him to carve out his role as an upperclassman, but he simply hasn't shown his talent as of yet.

Bottom-line: Irrelevant. Maybe Baylor's just the wrong system for Dennis and he could've made a bigger impact under Calipari, but the evidence is that he's just not that good yet. He probably would've never seen rotation minutes at the off-guard position over Bledsoe/Miller/Liggins in his freshman season, nor Liggins/Lamb/Miller this season. He might've been an all-world bench cheerer a la Stacey Poole, though.

If you can think of any other 2009 guys, let me know. I don't expect there were many more since Cal had to completely gut his inaugural UK roster just to fit in the six newcomers of (#1) John Wall, (#2) Demarcus Cousins, (#22) Daniel Orton, (#23) Eric Bledsoe, (#40) Jon Hood, and (#130 in 2007) Darnell Dodson. Next time I'll tackle the super-messy class of 2010 ... where Cal pretty much swung for everybody in the top 15.

... and Free Enes.

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Cousins Expectations

Demarcus Cousins - 6'11", 270 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
23.5 minutes, 15.1 points (60.4% FG, 55.8 FT%), 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 steals, 2.1 TOs

The guy's a beast.

Demarcus Cousins probably should have gone before John Wall in the draft. He's more talented and more productive on the court. That shows you how much his demeanor and sullied media reputation scared off NBA GMs. Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and Wes Johnson are all half the talent that Demarcus is on the floor, but they all had squeaky clean images associated with them. Demarcus has to use this as motivation every single day for the rest of his career to prove that he can be an elite big man against the greatest competition he could ever face.

An acceptable start for his career would be for him to achieve Al Jefferson numbers. The only catch is that, though it took Al 3 years before he nudged himself up to double-double territory, Cousins needs to get there right now. They have a lot of the same skills, as both are amongst the rare bigs left who show off a polished back-to-the-basket post game with deft hooks from either hand. They're both long-armed trees in the paint who, though may not consistently make the right defensive decisions, are always a threat for straight-up or help-side blocks. Their biggest difference is in the fact that Al is distinctively mild mannered while Demarcus is always the aggressor. Jefferson's numbers should be a jumping pad for Cousins. In all honesty, Boogie's best case scenario should be Shaq-like numbers; he's actually that talented. But I'm trying to keep it more realistic and taper off my expectancy of Cuz at the level of a better version of Jefferson. We all cool with that?

Al Jefferson - 6'10", 265 lb.
2008-2009 with Minnesota Timberwolves
36.7 minutes, 23.1 points (49.7% FG, 73.8% FT), 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.8 blocks, .8 steals, 1.8 TOs

The worst case for Boogie is a heavy pitfall to the level of Benoit Benjamin. Picked third by the Clips based on his size and potential upside, Benjamin failed to ever break out as anything more than a serviceable role player bugged by nagging injuries. This is where Demarcus would fall only if his weight is a recurring issue and he never fully dedicates himself to putting in the gym time to perfect his craft. If he's not able to show off his perimeter capabilities, something that was never utilized in the college ranks, then his ceiling is as an inconsistent dump-down threat and sizable post defender. That's it. But I can't even envision that happening. Boogie is motivated by every single sleight he perceives from fans, the media, opposing players, and entire organizations. Trust me ... he's not gonna let himself fall to this level.

Benoit Benjamin - 7'0", 265 lb.
1988-1989 with Los Angeles Clippers
32.7 minutes, 16.4 points (54.1% FG, 74.4% FT), 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.8 blocks, .7 steals, 3.0 TOs

Beyond playing style comparisons, hopefully Demarcus will be able to quickly shed himself of the "Derrick Coleman" branding that he's been ordained with. While Coleman was an immensely productive big man for the majority of his 16 year career, the combination of weight issues, alcohol, and his consistently problematic behavior completely overruled his on-the-court play. Despite having the talent to be one of the greatest power forwards ever, Coleman was content with a single All-Star appearance and only two showings on the All-NBA Third Team. If that abbreviated trophy case is all Demarcus winds up with in the twilight of his playing days, he'll have been a major disappointment, too.

While pretty much everyone expects Cousins to start from day one with the Kings to begin perfecting his two-man game with Tyreke Evans, he does have some legitimate competition for heavy minutes. Samuel Dalembert is probably going to be slated as the starting center while Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Darnell Jackson, and even fellow rookie Hassan Whiteside will compete for clock from the bench. This logjam will be easily remedied from Cuz's perspective if he's physically capable of holding his own in the early going at the center position, as well. That way he can just naturally slide over one spot when Dalembert goes to the bench and preserve his floor time. This is all assuming, though, that Boogie will be able to drop his penchant for committing stupid fouls. It's very telling that Demarcus was only able to play 23 of 40 minutes of college ball on a nightly basis because of foul trouble, stunting what could have been Player of the Year caliber statistics. All things considered, I think Demarcus is a legitimate threat in the Rookie of the Year race and, by his third season, could already be in All-Star territory. If he plays his cards perfect, he has the potential to be an era-defining big man and wiggle his way into the heart of fans as the loveably tough monster, a la Shaq. Though many see it as a deterrent, I see his on-court ferociousness as a trait that could help seamlessly transition his game onto the pro level. You can bet anything that Favors won't be mixing it up, knocking against Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard from day one. Demarcus will.

... and do the John Wall.

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