NBA 2011 Opening Night Notes

Hand gesture ... TECHNICAL!!!

The Heat lost and the Lakers won. Get used to hearing that once the playoffs roll around.

With all eyes on LeBron for his Miami Heat debut, he proved the old adage that you can take the King out of Cleveland, but you can't take the underachievement out of his teammates. I've heard that since I was a kid and never quite understood it until last night. James attempted to carry the team with his shooting touch in the second half and wound up with 31 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 8 turnovers in a loss to the defending Eastern Conference champs. Those were the kind of stat lines that Kobe initially got killed for in his early post-Shaq seasons. But oh well, it was just one game against a tough defense and Miami's got 81 more games to figure out how to creatively come up short before the postseason begins. Having the rest of his team shoot a collective 38% from the field? That's just unoriginal. Props to Chris Bosh for being scared to death by his twin Predator KG (8 points on 3-11 shooting) and Dwyane Wade for having a rusty hamstring (4-16 shooting and 6 turnovers). With James Jones slated to get all of Mike Miller's shots, it's going to be a long road to recovery hinging on that thumb.

Two Celtics notes: Shaq gained 100 pounds since his Cavalier postseason debut and Paul Pierce pulled off a day one version of his oh-my-God-I'm-injured-and-embarrassed-in-a-heap-on-the-ground-so-I-better-be-dragged-back-to-the-locker-room-so-I-can-make-my-triumphant-reentrance-two-minutes-later-with-no-ill-effects-of-my-potential-career-ending-injury shtick. It's pretty much what he's known for now.

Now onto the Lakers-Rockets! Yao is gonna be good, even in his limited minutes. He managed to foul out in his short stay, but he did all of the incredibly Ming-y things last night that made him such a pivotal force before his foot collapsed. Kevin Martin will effortlessly thrive as mass point producer as long as he has Yao and Brad Miller at the high post looking for him on cuts. He's always been a great scorer, but now he'll prolly finally be efficient. Aaron Brooks resumed his role as a Laker killer with 24 points and 9 assists, so that was refreshingly painful.

But the Lakers found a way to prevail. Shannon Brown pulled off his best Kobe impression in the fourth and notched 4 threes to finish with 16 late points. Thankfully, Kobe also pulled off his best Kobe impersonation throughout the first three quarters and managed 27 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. I was gonna write a column about how stupid it was for everyone and their mom acting like KB's crappy preseason shooting was an actual issue that proved his decline with age, but Kobe replied last night with his game and a win so I wouldn't have to. They're the two-time defending world champions, three-time defending western conference champions, and now they've upgraded their roster. Steve Blake surprisingly took over for Derek Fisher in crunch time and knocked in the dagger to add to the last of his three triples on the night. Matt Barnes worked his butt off and forced some action while he was in there, pulling down 5 boards and finishing with a +12 plus/minus score in his 16 minutes of playing time. Theo Ratliff notched two blocks in his limited time and will continue to do that every night in relieving Pau until Bynum makes his way back. The Lakers have their eyes past the Heat already. Get ready for the three-peat.

Oh, and Gasol had 29 points and 11 rebounds. That's pretty good too. And nobody cares about the Suns-Blazers.

... and Free Enes.

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2010-2011 Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have signed a contract with ESPN, TNT, and ABC to have 217 of their regular season games broadcasted each year for the next 7 years. That headline must've slipped under the cracks of Coach K cutting Rajon Rondo from Team USA. Jerk. Regardless, I think it's pretty safe to say that everyone's eyes are on the Heat from here on out until Amare, Carmelo, and CP3 team up for the Knicks in 2011. Then everyone's gonna have to practice that independent eyeball control thing so they watch both teams at the same time. I sure can't do it yet.

2010-2011 Miami Heat

Point Guard: Mario Chalmers/Carlos Arroyo
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade/Eddie House
Small Forward: LeBron James/Mike Miller/James Jones
Power Forward: Chris Bosh/Udonis Haslem/Juwan Howard
Center: Joel Anthony/Zydrunas Ilgauskas/Jamaal Magloire

I hate to admit it, but the Heat were able to put some perfect pieces around their Big 3 with some professional Pat Riley cap space wiggling. Though they did miss out on a point guard upgrade (any old, unselfish veteran [a la Gary Payton] would've been sufficient), I can still see how they don't technically need an all-league offense initiator; you only need one of either James or Wade on the floor for that issue to be remedied. The shooters they compiled are almost unfair. House, Jones, and Miller have knocked in threes at clips of 39%, 39.5%, and 40.5% respectively over their careers. They're all threats to drop five or six long range bombs in any given game, just for shiggles.

While they do have size with a frontline-by-committee, the impact of the players behind Bosh and Haslem may be a slight issue. Joel Anthony has proved absolutely nothing in three years of NBA experience. He occasionally blocks shots; that's it. While compiling heady veterans such as Juwan Howard, Big Z, and Jamaal Magloire is never a bad thing in and of itself, none of those guys have been on-court forces in years. They've got a stock of big bodies, for sure, but you don't actually want to be in a position of having any of them on the floor for extended time. Unless Z gets a late career rejuvenation or Joel actually learns a certifiable basketball skill, the front court is more or less gonna develop into Bosh/Haslem or bust.

Now with the big deal. LeBron and D-Wade on the wing together. No one knows how it's gonna work. The '08 Redeem Team showed no real preview of this because the shot allotment needed for Kobe and Melo distorted any honest chance of an LBJ-Wade two-man game showcase. Having two of the top three perimeter scorers in the league on the same team for 82 games is unprecedented. No one's had to make that level of and individual sacrifice before with someone filling the same floor space as them. The majority of all-time tandems were either big/little (like Russell/Cousy, Moses/Dr. J, Kareem/Magic, Malone/Stockton, Shaq/Kobe) or alpha/subordinate combos in the same front or back court (like West/Goodrich, Frazier/Monroe, Bird/McHale, Isiah/Dumars, Jordan/Pippen). Unless Bron-Bron or Dwyane have a secret meeting to thumb-wrestle and decide who's gonna be the distinct first option, then we have a brand new monster on our hands. I don't even wanna begin to speculate on if it's gonna work flawlessly or be a potential case of the whole being much, much less than the sum of its parts. And that's the exact reason why the Heat are so interesting and actually will deserve TV air time. Everyone wants their expert analysis to be proven fiercely right or viciously wrong on this brand new NBA scenario for the ages.

My prediction on their season? Second best record in the league. Prolly 59-23 or something like that, putting them on pace with the Magic squad from last year. They obviously have the highest ceiling of any team literally in NBA history, but I got them pegged as bonafide contenders, not as record-shattering world-beaters quite yet. As far as playoffs expectations, I'm kind of torn. I think they match up favorably against Orlando, but I think the Celtics would make quick work of Miami's lack of size and an honest Rondo matchup. And those scenarios only makes it complicated because I think the Magic are gonna be one step ahead of the Celtics if they face each other first. And the Bulls are the completely revamped unknown in any case as to their style of play and playoff potential. So if I were to make a gut prediction (which is the whole frickin' point of writing opinion columns in the first place), I got the Heat making it to the Conference Finals in year one and bowing out. No rings for the King yet. Kobe's still alive, ain't he?

Prediction
Regular Season: 59-23
Playoffs: Eliminated in the Eastern Conference Finals

... and do the John Wall.

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Retooling a Champion

I know it's kind of crazy to talk about the needed reconstruction of a back-to-back world champion, but I feel the need to. The Lakers are going to need to cement two glaring spots in their roster if they hope to end the 2010-2011 season with the insanely unprecedented accomplishment of Phil Jackson's fourth three-peat. And here are my hopes for those spots ...

We're losing quite a few locker room soldiers this offseason. Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, DJ Mbenga, Adam Morrison, and maybe Josh Powell are all likely to aim for a few more bucks than the Lakers are willing to pay for guaranteed back-up guys. I'm going to pencil in Derek Fisher for a return, but it's probably going to be at a reduced role for the first time if Mr. Buss' wallet has anything to say for it. The two needs that that leaves the champs with is a starting-caliber point guard as well as a wing who preferably is a knockdown shooter.

This two part checklist will have to be accomplished in tiers. We'll either have to snatch a top tier wing with the full midlevel exception and a lesser-noted PG with whatever pennies are left, or the other way around. For the wing position, the prime candidate is easily Mike Miller. And the Lakers for sure know that. The early word is they've already thrown $30 million at him and are trying to force him into an immediate agreement on it. It's easy to understand why, as Miller is probably one of the ten best long-range bombers in the league today, hitting 48% of his 3s last season with the Wizards. If he can stay healthy for the length of the season, an Artest/Miller wing combo next to Kobe Bryant is perfect for literally any individual situation. Next to Miller, I like T-Mac as a darkhorse candidate. If he's serious about wanting to win a fricking playoff series in his career, he just needs to sign with L.A. regardless of the money. If those guys happen to fall through, the 2A, 2B, and 2C options are guys like Raja Bell, Matt Barnes, and Anthony Morrow. If you can add a feared defensive specialist like Bell or Barnes in addition to Ron Ron, the Lakers can shut down any backcourt in the league. Any of these guys instantly add a far favorable stretch shooter who can get on the floor, unlike an Adam Morrison-type guy who is strictly a mop-up player. Who cares if Kobe innately hated these competitors when he matched up opposite against them?

Tier 1: Mike Miller, Tracy McGrady
Tier 2: Raja Bell, Matt Barnes, Anthony Morrow

Or L.A. could go a different direction with the MLE and offer it all to try and steal Steve Blake. Although the guy seems to be a guaranteed candidate to change teams darn near every single year, he's the kind of younger, heady veteran who could pick up the Triangle Offense pretty quickly and flourish specifically in that lead guard role. He's a tad taller at 6-3, which is what Phil prefers, and he just makes solid decisions with his 3-point shot and passing ability. He's a guy who's only averaged double figure points once in his career, but he's still a highly coveted player due to him having a seemingly perfect game to be the heir to Derek Fisher's place with the future Kobe Bryant era Lakers. The next group of potential point guards include Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour. Earl is completely deferential and as strong a defensive presence at the 1 as you will find, while Luke is the creative plug-in point who would hopefully nestle into a comfort zone since he wouldn't need to force the action as much as he previously did with Seattle and Milwaukee. After that, we might have to try to squeeze whatever is left from Gilbert Arenas' shooting partner for minimum money.

Tier 1: Steve Blake
Tier 2: Earl Watson, Luke Ridnour
Tier 3: Javaris Crittenton, anyone else

If only to fill out the league's required roster minimum, the Lakers might have to pick up their 2010 second round draft picks, Devin "Guy Who Ruined UK's Season" Ebanks and Derrick "UL Flunky" Caracter. And regardless of if we may have to look into flipping Lamar Odom for either cap relief or completely unforeseen available talent, I'm inclined to believe that the 2011 season will be another banner year for the Los Angeles Lakers. Phil Jackson wouldn't let it happen any other way.

... and do the John Wall.

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Surprise Team

So I just thought I'd dedicate a few minutes to talking about a surprise NBA squad that I like going into next season. They are one of last year's punchline teams: the Wizards. And I think they'll possibly challenge the Magic/Celtics/Cavs.

Don't look at me crazy. I know they won a beyond paltry 19 games last year. And I know that's crazily nice enough to tie them for second worst in the league. And I also know that they only completed a single trade this offseason and don't even have an impact rookie coming in. But I still like them to surpassingly crush all expectations even though this is a season where I fully expect twelve of the fifteen Eastern Conference squads to compete for those eight playoff spots. Just for the record, I think the Knicks, Pacers, and Nets are those three unlucky teams who are consistent enough to maintain as the East's resident bottom feeders. But on to the Wiz.

Before even discussing their one monster trade, the Wizards simply improve exponentially from last season's nonexistence because of the health of both Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood. These men aren't going to be recovering while coming into training camp, either, because both came around fully right at the end of 2009's regular season. The team's starting point guard and center both had full and complete summers for rehabilitation and contact training. So even more than anyone who's been healthy, they should specifically come into the season in peak condition after not being on their feet most of last year.

And while Haywood is deftly important to this team's interior defense and gives them a (pretend) post scorer to distract some from the perimeter, Arenas is the pivotal cog that will reemerge and bring the Wiz into the upper echelon of East threats. Gilbert has been away from us for so long that all NBA fans have already started to forget or underestimate his floor impact. This man stands right behind Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony in the ranks of pure scorers in the league. He may seem to go games at a time where he shoots unconsciously and detrimentally to the team, but that reputation was gained more out of necessity and lack of team structure than out of pure ballhoggedness. Under Flip Saunders and with a full compliment of offensive weapons, Arenas will show amazing efficiency on the offensive end. Just trust me. And this same principle applies likewise to Antawn Jamison. Last year's team was purposeless on both sides of the floor. The club was marred with injuries and was infusing too many inexperienced pieces with a pitfall of uncertainty. With Arenas back at full capacity and some definitive upgrades at two key positions, this incarnation of the Wizards will show up on a nightly basis and perform.

And now the trade. For three less-than-proficiently talented forwards and the fifth pick in the draft, the Wizards acquired Mike Miller and Randy Foye from Minnesota. And though both players were rather nondescript last season, their skill sets will be highlighted on this team. Miller is instantly infused into the starting lineup and paired with Caron Butler to provide two big and strong wings which will dually cause problems for defenses. On the obvious front, Miller positively replaces a great deal of the 3-point attempts that Deshawn Stevenson, Mike James, Butler, and Jamison have been chucking the last few seasons. He'll knock them in at more opportune times and at a better clip. This also allows the free roaming of Butler and Jamison to become even more of a threat than it already was. You have to cover both of those forwards on the perimeter anyway, but now you have to even tighter and with more urgency since the ball could get dropped off or swung over to Miller at any point. And while he's not a premier defender by any means, his size gives a more versatile look on the defensive end of things when alternating between all the wing D schemes. Foye, on the other hand, provides a greatly talented scoring combo guard to be the first man off the bench for either Arenas or for the position shuffling of any combination of Miller/Butler/Jamison. In his short time at Minnesota, he became a more than adequate floor leader who can pick his spots to be a distributor or prime time scorer. In all honesty, he's a poor man's Gilbert Arenas. Funny how that happens. With Foye in the fold, the points will never drop off between the starting lineup and the bench. The Wizards with these two new players now have five guys who could realistically score 20+ points on any given night.

Once you add the peripheral players in, this team can exceedingly flourish when given the right direction. Nick Young is a big guard with as pure a stroke as you'll find in someone with so much untapped potential. Andray Blatche is a stylized big man of the future with every conceivable skill on the floor who simply needs to tame his shot selection to understand how versatile he can be in literally any system. Javaris Crittenton is a pure point guard, as well as a former Laker, who I fully believe can still develop into an absolute stud whether it's with the Wizards or a future team. Newly signed Fabricio Oberto is one of those veteran big men who, while not a big stat contributor, provides a calming influence and never provides anything negative while on the floor.

So all in all, I would be willing to throw some money on the Wizards being a big time crew next year with an epic bounce back performance. I like what both the Celtics and Magic did to improve their rosters, but I wanted to acknowledge the team that seemingly no one has on their radar right now. I witnessed the game live three years back when Gilbert Arenas laced up the Lakers for 60 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and a win while Butler and Jamison dropped an extra 27 and 25 respectively as well without missing a beat. It was a thing of beauty in the face of my own beloved Lake Show. And I'm not counting on that ever happening again, but I'm counting on everyone being able to score as much as they want and for Arenas to settle back in as a complete threat and floor leader for this overly talented team that will surprise you.

... but do take my word for it.

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