NBA 2011 Opening Night Notes

Hand gesture ... TECHNICAL!!!

The Heat lost and the Lakers won. Get used to hearing that once the playoffs roll around.

With all eyes on LeBron for his Miami Heat debut, he proved the old adage that you can take the King out of Cleveland, but you can't take the underachievement out of his teammates. I've heard that since I was a kid and never quite understood it until last night. James attempted to carry the team with his shooting touch in the second half and wound up with 31 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 8 turnovers in a loss to the defending Eastern Conference champs. Those were the kind of stat lines that Kobe initially got killed for in his early post-Shaq seasons. But oh well, it was just one game against a tough defense and Miami's got 81 more games to figure out how to creatively come up short before the postseason begins. Having the rest of his team shoot a collective 38% from the field? That's just unoriginal. Props to Chris Bosh for being scared to death by his twin Predator KG (8 points on 3-11 shooting) and Dwyane Wade for having a rusty hamstring (4-16 shooting and 6 turnovers). With James Jones slated to get all of Mike Miller's shots, it's going to be a long road to recovery hinging on that thumb.

Two Celtics notes: Shaq gained 100 pounds since his Cavalier postseason debut and Paul Pierce pulled off a day one version of his oh-my-God-I'm-injured-and-embarrassed-in-a-heap-on-the-ground-so-I-better-be-dragged-back-to-the-locker-room-so-I-can-make-my-triumphant-reentrance-two-minutes-later-with-no-ill-effects-of-my-potential-career-ending-injury shtick. It's pretty much what he's known for now.

Now onto the Lakers-Rockets! Yao is gonna be good, even in his limited minutes. He managed to foul out in his short stay, but he did all of the incredibly Ming-y things last night that made him such a pivotal force before his foot collapsed. Kevin Martin will effortlessly thrive as mass point producer as long as he has Yao and Brad Miller at the high post looking for him on cuts. He's always been a great scorer, but now he'll prolly finally be efficient. Aaron Brooks resumed his role as a Laker killer with 24 points and 9 assists, so that was refreshingly painful.

But the Lakers found a way to prevail. Shannon Brown pulled off his best Kobe impression in the fourth and notched 4 threes to finish with 16 late points. Thankfully, Kobe also pulled off his best Kobe impersonation throughout the first three quarters and managed 27 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. I was gonna write a column about how stupid it was for everyone and their mom acting like KB's crappy preseason shooting was an actual issue that proved his decline with age, but Kobe replied last night with his game and a win so I wouldn't have to. They're the two-time defending world champions, three-time defending western conference champions, and now they've upgraded their roster. Steve Blake surprisingly took over for Derek Fisher in crunch time and knocked in the dagger to add to the last of his three triples on the night. Matt Barnes worked his butt off and forced some action while he was in there, pulling down 5 boards and finishing with a +12 plus/minus score in his 16 minutes of playing time. Theo Ratliff notched two blocks in his limited time and will continue to do that every night in relieving Pau until Bynum makes his way back. The Lakers have their eyes past the Heat already. Get ready for the three-peat.

Oh, and Gasol had 29 points and 11 rebounds. That's pretty good too. And nobody cares about the Suns-Blazers.

... and Free Enes.

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2010-2011 Houston Rockets

It's almost to the point with me that I have to be reminded that Yao Ming is still alive. He's been I guess we'll see. This season is pretty much make-or-break for his career and he has the power completely in his hands (or foot) to shift the Rockets from a young and talented squad in the middle of the pack to a championship contender. And they honestly should be. This team is put together in ridiculously nice fashion.

2010-2011 Houston Rockets

Point Guard: Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry
Shooting Guard: Kevin Martin/Courtney Lee
Small Forward: Shane Battier/Chase Budinger/Jared Jeffries
Power Forward: Luis Scola/Chuck Hayes/Patrick Patterson
Center: Yao Ming/Brad Miller

I'm in love with their backcourt. I can admit to thinking Aaron Brooks was a fluke two seasons ago when he almost singlehandedly pushed the Lakers to 7 games in the conference semis, but I'll admit that he's a legit starting NBA lead guard. He's blindingly quick and serious long range threat who made the jump enough to be the league's Most Improved Player. And with team, he's relieved of all pressure due to the fact that he's partnered with Kevin Martin who can score 25 a night while he's texting and drinking coffee in his car from the expressway on the way to the game. They also have the perfect glue guy at the small forward in Shane Battier who's probably the only player in the league who'd be completely content if he never took a shot the whole season. Add to that talent pool Kyle Lowry, an insanely powerful finisher as the back-up point who can produce points out of nothing, and Western Kentucky's own Courtney Lee (even though he's been rumored to be a trade pawn) and you've got yourself a complete set of perimeter guys with a crazy mix of speed, scoring ability, and defensive instincts.

Coming off a FIBA All-Tournament run and with the ink on his second U.S. contract still fresh, I expect this to be the year that Luis Scola cements his NBA status. Sure he's started all 164 games for Houston the last two years and was even an All-NBA Rookie in '08, but how he performs this year alongside Yao will mean more than all of that. Hopefully he'll be able to nudge himself into double-double territory. His confidence has to be sky high right now after killing Andy Varejao and the rest of the Brazilians for 37 points as Argentina's focal point without Manu Ginobili playing for the national squad this summer. With actual expectations on his shoulders this season, he has show and prove. The 16/9/2 stat line was nice last season, but that was on a team that didn't make the playoffs and had no other post threat. This is the real test.

But bringing it all back around, barring a crazy trade for Carmelo or another player of his level, this entire season depends on how much Yao Ming can stay on the floor. It's so easy to forget, but Yao is one of maybe five players in the game that opponents literally have to switch up their entire game plans for. He's not the most nimble or even the most intimidating guy on the floor, but he's a game changer who has the opportunity to score every single time down the floor, making his teammates all that more effective. So ... that leaves me with the conundrum of whether or not I make my prediction assuming Yao is back in full force or destined to fracture another limb and be permanently debilitated. I'm gonna go with the healthy assumption just for the fact that he can afford to take a bunch of minutes off on a nightly basis with the amazing bench mob of Brad Miller, Chuck Hayes, and Patrick Patterson there to spell him. And with that assumption, I have the Rockets skyrocketing from out of the playoffs to challenging the Lakers as the number 2 seed in the West. Their lack of quality playoff advancement bites them in the but though as they lose to the Oklahoma City Durants in the second round. And that's where I stand. Now we'll see if Yao is gonna be able to stand in that same spot without the aid of crutches and a boot.

Prediction
Regular Season: 58-24
Playoffs: Eliminated in Western Conference Semi-Finals

... and do the John Wall.

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Patterson Expectations

Patrick Patterson - 6'9", 235 lb.
2009-2010 with Kentucky Wildcats
33 minutes, 14.3 points (57.5% FG, 34.8% 3PT, 69.2% FT), 7.4 rebounds, .9 assists, 1.3 blocks, .7 steals, 1.1 TOs

The University of Kentucky's modern day Paul Bunyan figure is now an NBA rookie. He was one of the very, very, very few bright spots shining through the catastrophic Billy G blip of an era. He was the guy who embodied every aspect of any local hero you could ever wish for. He was UK. Now he's a Rocket.

The big issue in looking at Pat's production from last season is the Demarcus Cousins effect. In his 2009 sophomore season, pre-Boogie, Pat put up 18/9/2 with 2 blocks and shot over 60% from the field. That drop in production would be a death toll for any other NBA prospect, but with his added skill of 3-point shooting and the scouts' understanding of his deference all last season to UK's incoming talent, Pat universally rose on everyone's draft boards. It was a crazy gutsy move for him, knowing that the team was in transition and he would have to sacrifice individual production on a monumental level. But he did it anyway, lived with the sacrifice, and was better off (playing-wise and monetarily) because of it. Win-win.

All that being said and as hard as it is for me to admit, I don't think P-Patt has a very good chance at an All-Star level career. Because of that, I see his ceiling as a Horace Grant-type 3rd option player. Grant did sneak in an All-Star appearance in '94 while MJ was busy watching a few baseball games, but he was more noted for his defensive work and tenure, logging over 30 minutes per game in 13 of his 17 NBA seasons. Horace has a little bit of height over Patrick and better natural defensive instincts so far, but Pat already has more consistency in his jumper and far better range. One thing that has to be a major focus for Patterson is developing his passing ability, which was completely nonexistent at UK, if he has any hopes of being as productive as Grant. He won't be seeing many dump-down, clear out situations in the pros due to his lack of size, but being a high energy guy on the boards will go a long way in him defining his game and surprising a lot of people with his insane level of strength and fitness.

Horace Grant - 6'10", 215 lb.
1993-1994 with Chicago Bulls
36.7 minutes, 15.1 points (52.4% FG, 59.6% FT), 11 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.6 TOs

In the same way I don't think P-Patt has as high of a ceiling as the other 2010 UK rookies at the pro level, he also has a shorter drop as to what his worst case scenario is. The most frequent modern day comparison used for Patrick is current undersized Jazz forward Paul Millsap; and it's highly warranted. Millsap is a workhorse who runs the fast break well, has an adequate mid-range shot, and destroys his oversized competition on the board, all these being things that Patrick's already got on lock and ready to contribute at the pro level. Yet he's probably going to be a career back-up unless he gets on another squad purged of all front court size. He spent all of his first four seasons as Carlos Boozer's bench relief and is set to play the same role in Al Jefferson's shadow for the foreseeable future. The highlight of Millsap's early career was taking advantage of Booze's injury-prone nature in the '09 season where he had 38 starting opportunities. He put up a string of 19 consecutive double-doubles in Boozer's absence, showing off his capability as an NBA starter. But Millsap was relegated once again to mop-up duty once he returned.

Paul Millsap - 6'8", 245 lb.
2008-2009 with Utah Jazz
30.1 minutes, 13.5 points (53.4% FG, 69.9% FT), 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 1.7 TOs

I'm personally rooting for the Rockets to win the Carmelo sweepstakes and trade away half their big men for him. Unless Patrick's able to pull the ability to handle the ball out of a magic hat in the next month, he's stuck as an undersized power forward or super-undersized center in the most dire of instances. With that niched position in mind, it sucks that the Rockets currently employ Yao Ming, Brad Miller, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and Jordan Hill all fighting for those 96 big men minutes between them. The only guy Patrick's probably ahead of on the depth chart is Hill. Plus you gotta figure that Yao and Scola get at least 65 of those available minutes between them. Not good for a rookie. So unless something big changes, we may not see a lot of P-Patt in the early going. But he's too solid to not break his way into someone's rotation and be an impact player at some point. Big Blue nation will be right behind him for the entire journey. He's our guy.

... and do the John Wall.

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