Wednesday, March 30, 2011

The Lost Recruits: 2009

I love the heavy months of high school basketball recruiting. Having John Calipari as your head coach will make you obsessive about that kind of thing. So many kids become the most important thing a UK fan could possibly keep tabs on, only to fade from our entire conscious the second they pick the hat of another program. I wanted to bring back our old temporary dudes to give a perspective on if Coach Cal has been making the perfect recruiting pulls that we assume he's been making as our infallible grand puba.

All of the given rankings are according to Rivals and all the stats are displayed as points/rebounds/assists blocks-steals with percentages given as (field goal/three-point/free throw)%.

#8 (SG) Xavier Henry
NCAA - Kansas (2009-2010): 13/4/2 0-2 with (46/42/78)% at 28 MPG in 36 games
NBA - Grizzlies (2010-2011): 6/1/1 0-0 with (44/22/70)% at 21 MPG in 16 starts

In a year where Coach Cal seemed to be picking his recruits straight off the factory line, Xavier was the single one who actually got away. Which is kind of weird because he already had his commitment to start off. X and Demarcus Cousins were the flagship guys that Cal already had signed to play for him at the University of Memphis, marking his first dual superstar class to one-up his Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans recruitments. Once Calipari took the Kentucky job, Henry immediately de-committed from Memphis and proceeded to have one of the most confusingly indecisive recruitments ever. On any given day, Henry was reported to have committed to Kansas or to have switched his verbal to Kentucky or to have been told by either of his parents to attend opposite schools. This went full circle through the media rounds two separate occasions before he finally suited up for the Jayhawks, drawing the ire of UK fans who minutes before were pleading for him. He tore our heart strings out twice and was probably amongst the most hated humans out there last season for the Wildcat faithful. Before we quickly forgot that he existed, of course. After an early bounce from the NCAA tournament, Xavier proceeded to bolt from KU right for the league (as was always expected) and was selected 12th by the Memphis Grizzlies. His NBA career started out with a rough PR patch when he held out from signing his rookie contract for a significant amount of time over the small wiggle percentage that NBA teams are allowed to finagle under the rookie scale. His play on the court was never an issue, but prima dona claims have followed him due to weirdness of his recruiting journey and certain statements he's let slip publicly.

Bottom-line: Miss. Henry possibly could have been the missing piece to a championship season last year as he would have been an immense upgrade over Darnell Dodson and redefined the team as the probable starting shooting guard, relegating Eric Bledsoe to a 6th man role. As an outsider, though, he could have created chemistry problems due to not connecting early with "The Three Amigos" of freshmen John Wall, Cousins, and Bledsoe.

#11 (SG) Lance Stephenson
NCAA - Cincinnati (2009-2010): 12/5/3 0-1 with (44/22/66)% at 28 MPG in 34 games
NBA - Pacers (2010-2011): 3/2/1 0-0 with (33/0/79)% at 10 MPG in 12 games

Lance had his fair share of image issues in high school that left him as the last beauty pageant contestant on the runway. Before Cincinnati accepted him an entire month after the last day of the late signing period, not a single flagship program was willing to take a chance on Stephenson's elite talent after Kansas, St. John's, Maryland, and Arizona all severed ties after he floated them as his "finalists." He was an ineligibility risk at one time due to his involvement in a documentary following his high school basketball exploits. Beyond that, his personal reputation was sullied to begin with due to being suspended as a high school senior for fighting with a teammate as well as facing a misdemeanor sexual assault charge in the same year. Before his first season as a Pacer even started, he was arrest for third degree assault in an incident involving his girlfriend. Lance was always slated as a probable one-and-done guy and he upheld that by bolting for the NBA right away, being selected in the second round by the Indiana Pacers with the 40th pick. Just months earlier he told reporters: "I don't think I have had an NBA season this year so the best choice is for me to stay."

Bottom-line: Great pass. It's undeniably a good thing we skipped giving "Born Ready" a chance. His rap sheet reads as every problem people thought Demarcus Cousins would be. Great talent, but an eligibility risk and would have caused chemistry problems for the single season he would have spent at UK. He also was a mediocre long-range shooter and would have required the ball to be taken out of John Wall's hands.

#19 (SF) Royce White
NCAA - Minnesota (2009-2010): did not play, left team
NCAA - Iowa State (2010-2011): did not play, sat out due to transfer

Royce was originally a Tubby commit who never suited up for Minny due to a mall arrest because of shoplifting and misdemeanor assault on a security guard. This was followed up with him being mentioned in the case of a stolen laptop from a dorm. White left the team after the hard stance Minnesota took with him, though he claimed to know nothing about the laptop. All of this has temporarily stymied the basketball career of a McDonald's All-American who was renowned as a monster rebounder who can score from anywhere on the floor as a combo forward. White originally vowed that he was quitting basketball altogether because of the way he was treated at Minnesota, but Coach Cal highly considered adding him to UK's 2010 class once he reneged and started looking for a school to transfer to. In later interviews, White said that he felt Iowa State was a better fit than Kentucky even though Calipari offered him a scholarship. However, it's contrastingly been reported that Kentucky pulled back on its pursuit of White before he committed to the Cyclones.

Bottom-line: To be determined. White could have been an invaluable frontline addition to create a legitimate big man trio with Terrence Jones and Josh Harrellson in 2010-2011, but his ability has yet to be shown against collegiate competition and his possible character issues could have plagued the team through media scrutiny. Once he hits the court and stays out of trouble, we'll see if we actually missed out on a ball player.

#58 (SG) Nolan Dennis
NCAA - Baylor (2009-2010): 2/1/1 0-0 (44/29/50)% at 8 MPG in 25 games
NCAA - Baylor (2010-2011): 2/1/0 0-1 (41/23/50)% at 8 MPG in 15 games

Dennis was supposed to be great slasher with a solid shooting stroke coming into the collegiate ranks. Calipari obviously agreed by making Dennis part of his broken-up Memphis class (along with Cousins, Henry, Darnell Dodson, and Will Coleman). Everyone out of that class except for Coleman bounced to another team, with Dennis heading to Baylor. He's barely made a ripple of an impact since, only hitting his career high of 10 points in two separate games and not even stepping on the floor for a large percentage of the games beyond that. There's always room for him to carve out his role as an upperclassman, but he simply hasn't shown his talent as of yet.

Bottom-line: Irrelevant. Maybe Baylor's just the wrong system for Dennis and he could've made a bigger impact under Calipari, but the evidence is that he's just not that good yet. He probably would've never seen rotation minutes at the off-guard position over Bledsoe/Miller/Liggins in his freshman season, nor Liggins/Lamb/Miller this season. He might've been an all-world bench cheerer a la Stacey Poole, though.

If you can think of any other 2009 guys, let me know. I don't expect there were many more since Cal had to completely gut his inaugural UK roster just to fit in the six newcomers of (#1) John Wall, (#2) Demarcus Cousins, (#22) Daniel Orton, (#23) Eric Bledsoe, (#40) Jon Hood, and (#130 in 2007) Darnell Dodson. Next time I'll tackle the super-messy class of 2010 ... where Cal pretty much swung for everybody in the top 15.

... and Free Enes.

Read More...

Monday, March 28, 2011

Analyzing UK's 2011 Schedule


So everybody and their mom can look at the end-of-season records/rankings of any team and interpret whatever they want from that. But I want to go a lil' deeper. I want to go back through our season and genuinely analyze our worthwhile games. There needs to be a more significant perspective put upon the ups-and-downs of the full season that you don't get from simply looking back on the internet schedule. For instance, who knew back on the fateful day of December 8th that UK demolished a newly-ranked squad on a "neutral" floor that would go on to tear up the rest of their schedule and be in contention for a number one seed at the end of the year? When our schedule dropped in the summer, absolutely no one had the non-Harangody's pegged for our signature win of the season, but it actually turns out to be so in retrospect.

I'm gonna give you the full range of all of Kentucky's significant victories as well of all their losses and rate them accordingly. I want to save us from the snap judgements that have rendered our match-up against North Carolina as a must-see clash of titans turned into a miserable foretelling loss turned into a strongly competitive road miss against an immensely talented squad. We need perspective people! Note: this only analyzes our scheduled regular season games.

Big wins:
Nov. 23 - Washington by 7
#11 when we played them
#17 Preseason
#11 Peak Ranking in week 3
#23 End of season, #7 seed in NCAA, second round loss
Bottom Line: Good Neutral Court Win (+2)

Dec. 8 - Notre Dame by 14
#23 when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#4 Peak Ranking in week 18
#6 End of season, #2 seed in NCAA, second round loss
Bottom Line: Terrific Neutral Court Win (+3)

Dec. 31 - Louisville by 15
#20 when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
#11 Peak Ranking in week 17, 19
#11 End of season, #4 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Terrific Road Win (+3)

Jan. 29 - Georgia by 6
Unranked when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
Peak Ranking with votes in weeks 10, 11, 12
Unranked End of season, #10 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Okay Home Win (+1)

Feb. 8 - Tennessee by 12
Unranked when we played them
#20 Preseason
#7 Peak Ranking in week 6
Unranked End of season, #9 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Good Home Win (+2)

Feb. 15 - Mississippi St. by 6
Unranked when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
Never Ranked but with votes in weeks 2, 3, 4
Unranked End of season, no tournament
Bottom Line: Okay Home Win (+1)

Feb. 26 - Florida by 8
#13 when we played them
#11 Preseason
#10 Peak Ranking in week 2
#13 End of season, #2 seed in NCAA, Elite Eight loss
Bottom Line: Terrific Home Win (+3)

Mar. 1 - Vanderbilt by 2
#20 when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#18 Peak Ranking in weeks 15, 16
#21 End of season, #5 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Good Home Win (+2)

Mar. 6 - Tennessee by 6
Unranked when we played them
#20 Preseason
#7 Peak Ranking in week 6
End of season, #9 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Okay Road Win (+1)

Losses:
Nov. 24 - Connecticut by 17
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#4 Peak Ranking in weeks 6, 7, 8
#8 End of season, #3 seed in NCAA, Final Four team
Bottom Line: Okay Neutral Court Loss (-2)

Dec. 4 - North Carolina by 2
Unranked when we played them
#9 Preseason
#7 Peak Ranking in week 18, 19
#7 End of season, #2 seed in NCAA, Elite Eight loss
Bottom Line: Good Road Loss (-1)

Jan. 8 - Georgia by 7
Unranked when we played them
Unranked (with votes) Preseason
Never Ranked but with votes in weeks 10, 11, 12
Unranked End of season, #10 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Okay Road Loss (-2)

Jan. 18 - Alabama by 2
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
Never Ranked but with votes in weeks 14, 17, 18
Unranked End of season, #1 seed in NIT
Bottom Line: Okay Road Loss (-2)

Feb. 1 - Mississippi by 2
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
Never Ranked
Unranked End of season, #5 seed in NIT
Bottom Line: Terrible Road Loss (-3)

Feb. 5 - Florida by 2
#23 when we played them
#11 Preseason
#10 Peak Ranking in week 2
#13 End of season, #2 seed in NIT, Elite Eight loss
Bottom Line: Good Road Loss (-1)

Feb. 12 - Vanderbilt by 4
#24 when we played them
Unranked Preseason
#18 Peak Ranking in weeks 15, 16
#21 End of season, #5 seed in NCAA, first round loss
Bottom Line: Good Road Loss (-1)

Feb. 23 - Arkansas by 1
Unranked when we played them
Unranked Preseason
Never Ranked
Unranked End of season, no tournament
Bottom Line: Terrible Road Loss (-3)

So by my arbitrary mathematics, we came out +3 on our collective of 17 games that mattered in retrospect. This deems our additional 9 games (all wins) against East Tennessee State, Portland, Oklahoma, Boston University, Indiana, Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, Coppin State, Pennsylvania, and LSU as irrelevant place holders. The closest of any of those contests was a 12-point victory over Oklahoma in our opening Maui Invitational game. If we hadn't have lost to Arkansas and Mississippi then they would've been reviewed as irrelevant games, as well.

So here's the easier review of our surprisingly legit regular season schedule that reframes our assumed meh 22-8 record into the #7 RPI ranking at season's end, significantly higher than our ESPN or AP poll slots at any given point of the year.

Preseason: games against 9, 11 (twice), 17, 20 (twice)
Only four of our opponents were ranked in the top 25 (North Carolina, Florida, Washington, and Tennessee) to start the season. Three teams (Georgia, Louisville, and Mississippi State) sat on the ranking outskirts with scattered votes. We went 4-2 in games against the anticipated top 25. That extends to 7-3 if you include the teams receiving votes.

End of Season: games against 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 (twice), 21 (twice), 23
See any kind of difference? We wound up playing nine games against seven opponents that finished in the top 25 (Notre Dame, North Carolina, Connecticut, Louisville, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Washington). We went 5-4 against these end-of-season elite and while that's a mile from great, anything over .500 against the top squads in the nation is nothing to overlook.

Peak Breakdown:
0-1 against UCONN who peaked at #4
1-0 against Notre Dame who peaked at #4
0-1 against North Carolina who peaked at #7
2-0 against Tennessee who peaked at #7
1-1 against Florida who peaked at #10
1-0 against Louisville who peaked at #11
1-0 against Washington who peaked at #11
1-1 against Vanderbilt who peaked at #18
4-3 against teams who were at one point in the top 10
7-4 against teams who were at one point in the top 18
9-5 against teams who at one point received top 25 votes


Now here's where we see the bigger deal and get a much better perspective than that given by UK's 2010-2011 schedule printout that only credits us with 5 snapshot wins against ranked opponents all outside of the top 10 and has us losing to the dually unranked-at-the-time UCONN Huskies and North Carolina Tarheels.

Bottom Line: we played a surprisingly blistering schedule this season and came away from it looking pretty sweet if you can possibly convince yourself to overlook the gutter road losses we endured to Mississippi and Arkansas. Looking at it this in-depth, maybe we were far better prepared for the deep tourney run we find ourselves in than even any of us Big Blue Faithful gave our boys credit for.

... and Free Enes.

Read More...